The analysis indicates that What caught my attention is A trade agreement between the European Union and U. Could be imminent. But until a framework is announced, nothing is guaranteed.
Moreover, The EU is still working on potential countermeasures it could impose in a no-deal scenario (fascinating analysis).
US President Donald Trump ders remarks at the "Winning the AI Race" AI Summit at the Andrew W. Moreover, Mellon Auditorium in Washington, DC, on July 23, 2025, in light of current trends.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds | AFP | Getty ImagesA trade agreement between the European Union and U, in today's market environment.
Could be imminent, however with no guarantees Brussels continues to prepare retaliatory measures. A 15% baseline tariff rate, which includes an around 4.
8% duty currently in place, is currently the base-case scenario for EU imports to the U. , an EU diplomat told CNBC on Wednesday.
However, there could also be some exemptions that are still being worked out, they added. This analysis suggests that EU may in turn reduce its own levies on the U.
, according to the diplomat (an important development). Negotiations between the U, considering recent developments. Moreover, And EU have been tough going with pressure mounting ahead of the Aug.
Furthermore, 1 deadline which would see imports from the EU to the U. Hit with a 30% tariff.
Conversely, While this is lower than the 50% rate Trump had previously threatened, it would ly still heavily impact es and economies in both the EU and the U.
Furthermore, "Relative to the risk of much higher extra tariffs such as 30% or even 50% that Trump had occasionally muted before, that would be a positive outcome," Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, ed in a note.
Nevertheless, John Plassard, partner and head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion, told CNBC's "Europe Early Edition" that a 15% rate would be "significant but. Not devastating" for.
Nevertheless, Meanwhile, "We don't think it's the end of the world," Plassard said, suggesting that while there was ly more volatility ahead, recent developments have "been more constructive than all the talk and discussion we had before.
"The deal is not doneBut the deal is by no means done yet, with an EU diplomat telling CNBC the "final decision [is] in hands of President Trump, in today's financial world.
Additionally, "A second EU official also appeared hesitant, telling CNBC that media reports that the EU and the U. Are closing in on a deal are "too optimistic (something worth watching).
""s between both sides continue, but until President Trump speaks his mind we don't have anything concrete. Nevertheless, On the other hand, Everything still remains in the open," they said.
Additionally, Trump's administration appeared to strike a similar tone Wednesday.
When asked the potential for a 15% tariff rate, White House Deputy Press Secretary Kush Desai said discussions any potential trade deals should be considered "speculation," according to a report from Reuters.
Nevertheless, Watch now2:1102:11With no guarantee of an EU-U.
In contrast, Trade deal, Europe keeps its options openSquawk Box EuropeTrump is notorious for last minute changes of heart and making quick decisions, the example of which took place earlier this week on the U.
-Japan trade deal.
Moreover, During a meeting between Trump and the Japanese delegation, discrepancies and edits were seen on a card outlining the deal on Trump's desk, according to a photo posted on X by Dan Scavino, the White House deputy chief of staff.
Despite European on Thursday being buoyed by the spect of a deal, the uncertainty surrounding what a EU-U. On the other hand, Agreement could look remains.
EU preparing for no deal scenarioIn the meantime the EU is still working on countermeasures it could impose if U. Tariffs do come into effect next week, in today's market environment.
Primarily, these are set to include retaliatory tariffs which could come into force just days after the U, given the current landscape.
Under the EU's new plan, previously prepared lists of countermeasures targeting goods, will be combined in one list, totalling 93 billion euros ($109. 4 billion).
There has also been widespread talk the EU deploying its so-called "Anti-Coercion Instrument," which has been described as the "nu option. "If enforced, U (remarkable data).
Suppliers could face restricted access to the EU market, given the current landscape.
Moreover, For example they would be unable to participate in public tenders in the bloc, there could be curbs on exports and imports, and foreign direct investment could be limited, amid market uncertainty.
While France has so far been the only country to call "for immediate establishment of coercion," if no agreement is struck, "there seems to be a broad qualified majority voting for establishing coercion," the EU diplomat told CNBC, amid market uncertainty.