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Why your Social Security check could shrink by nearly 20% — and more if jobs are scarce

Why This Matters

America’s retirement trust fund is expected to run dry by 2034. A U.S. economic downturn would only make a bad situation worse.

June 28, 2025
02:43 PM
2 min read
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Advanced ➔ Results EconofactOpinion: Why your Social Security check could shrink by nearly 20% — and more if jobs are scarceAmerica’s retirement trust fund is expected to run dry by 2034.

Economic downturn would only make a bad situation worse. Last d: June 28, 2025 at 10:43 a. ETFirst Published: June 26, 2025 at 7:50 a.

ETResizeListen(8 min)Social Security is facing a shortfall that will hit already-stretched retirees. Photo: Getty Images/iStockSocial Security is hugely important to a large of Americans.

Almost 69 million Americans will receive monthly Social Security benefits in 2025, totaling $1. 6 trillion in benefits paid during the year.

But Social Security will need some kind of reform within the next decade in order for America’s retirees to keep counting on it.

Given its funding structure, if Social Security continues to roll forward in its current trajectory, the gram will be able to cover just 81% of mised benefits starting in 2034, according to the estimates of the Social Security Trust Fund report.

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