Why we're keeping our buy rating on Amazon — even as shares tumble after earnings
Investment
CNBC

Why we're keeping our buy rating on Amazon — even as shares tumble after earnings

August 1, 2025
12:12 AM
8 min read
AI Enhanced
investmentstockstradingtechnologyconsumer discretionarymarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

Key Takeaways

The market will nitpick a couple of areas in the quarter over the next few days, but the thesis on Amazon is unchanged.

Article Overview

Quick insights and key information

Reading Time

8 min read

Estimated completion

Category

investment

Article classification

Published

August 1, 2025

12:12 AM

Source

CNBC

Original publisher

Key Topics
investmentstockstradingtechnologyconsumer discretionarymarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

Amazon on Thursday dered better-than-expected results on both the top and bottom lines for the second quarter

But a small revenue beat from Amazon Web Services and mixed third-quarter guidance weren't enough to impress investors, knocking the stock down after hours

Revenue increased 13% year over year to $167.7 billion, beating expectations for $162.09 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG

Earnings per based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) increased to $1.68, compared with $1.26 last year and the $1.33 estimate, per LSEG

Operating income increased 31% over last year to $19.17 billion, beating the $16.87 billion consensus forecast

Bottom line The market will nitpick a couple of areas in the quarter over the next few days, including questioning why AWS didn't der the same type of revenue upside as rivals Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud

The criticism is fair, but we don't see it as a sign that AWS is losing out on the AI race

And while the company's guidance for operating income didn't up to expectations, management is known for viding a wide range and beating initial jections

Therefore, we urge caution in reading too deeply into the light outlook when the company is jecting another quarter of healthy revenue growth

Most importantly, the thesis on Amazon is unchanged

The drivers we look at to determine the long-term direction of the stock are revenue growth from AWS and advertising — the two high-margin revenue s

Both were above expectations

Online stores are also important, but our focus there is on management's ability to further lower the cost of serving customers

If there are opportunities to bring costs down, which there are, margins should continue to expand

And as we've said before, if margins are going higher, the stock price

As a result, we view Thursday's sell-off — s are down more than 6% in after-hours trading, giving back all of its year-to-date gains — as a buying opportunity

We're reiterating our 1 rating and increasing our price target to $250 from $240

AMZN 1Y mountain AMZN 1 year return ary Revenue at cloud unit Amazon Web Services (AWS) increased 17.5% year over year to $30.87 billion

It's a tiny beat of $91 million versus the consensus estimate

The growth rate was also a little faster than the 16.9% rate in the first quarter

The upside here wasn't as eye-popping as what Microsoft Azure reported on Wednesday , leading to some disappointment

Once again, management said its AI cloud — which was reaffirmed as being a multi-billion-dollar growing annually at a percentage rate in the triple digits — had enough supply to keep up with demand

In the post-earnings call with investors, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy pointed to several areas facing supply constraints, but emphasized that the biggest challenge at the moment is access to power

This helps explain why s of GE Vernova , one of the largest manufacturers of gas turbines in the world, have doubled this year

Other areas of constraint are chips and components to make the servers

Jassy said it will take several quarters to resolve these shortages, echoing what Microsoft's Amy Hood said on Wednesday

AWS the quarter with a backlog of $195 billion

That's up 25% year over year and $6 billion from the first quarter

But margins from the cloud computing segment were disappointing, too

After nearing 40% in the first quarter, operating margin came back to earth and settled at 32.9% in the second quarter

That's down from both the consensus forecast and last year's result of 35.5%

The company cited a seasonal step up in stock-based compensation costs, higher depreciation expense, and FX rates as reasons for the margin decline from last year

It was revenue beats across the board for the rest of the company's segments

Some of the notable outperformances were in online stores, which beat estimates by $2.5 billion, third-party seller services, and a revenue growth acceleration in the high-margin advertising services

Jassy shot down some of the recent reporting that said prices have increased on the e-commerce platform as a result of tariffs. "There continues to be a lot of noise the impact that tariffs will have on retail prices and consumption

Much of it thus far has been wrong and misreported," he said. "As we said before, it's impossible to know what will happen." "But what we can is what we've seen thus far, which is that through the first half of the year, we haven't yet seen diminishing demand nor prices meaningfully appreciating," Jassy added

Amazon Why we own it : Amazon may be widely known for online shopping, but its cloud is the real breadwinner

Advertising is another fast-growing with high margins

Investment in robust e-commerce logistics infrastructure makes its online storefront the place to be as management works to aggressively decrease dery times and reduce overall costs

Prime leverages free shipping and ing with tons of other perks to keep users paying every month

Competitors : Walmart , Target , Microsoft and Alphabet Most recent buy : April 15, 2025 Initiated : February 2018 By geography, North America sales increased 11% and operating margins expanded 189 basis points from last year to 7.5%

In the international segment, Amazon's revenue increased 16%, but operating income surged thanks to a material increase in operating margins, which surpassed 4% and reached a new company record

Margins for both regions imved from the first quarter as the company continued to reduce the cost to serve its e-commerce customers

Amazon also got a benefit from the recently deployed DeepFleet, an AI model that manages the movement of its robotics in fulfillment centers

Jassy said DeepFleet is helping robots travel more efficiently, translating to faster dery times and lower costs for customers

On the capital expenditure side, Amazon invested roughly $31.4 billion in the second quarter, which was $5 billion more than expected and a step up from $24.3 billion in the first quarter

Management expects the second quarter capex figure to represent the quarterly capital investment rate for the second half of the year, implying full year capex to be $117 billion

That's an increase of management's prior plan to invest $100 billion this year

The primary driver of these investments will go to AWS to support demand for AI services, but Amazon is also in its fulfillment and transportation network

With earnings from the cloud computing "hyperscalers" now complete, once again we saw all the major players spend more than anticipated and signal plans to invest more aggressively in the quarters ahead

Guidance Amazon's 2025 third-quarter guidance was better than anticipated on sales but missed on operating income

The company expects net sales to increase 10% to 13% year over year to $174 billion to $179.5 billion

This outlook is well above the consensus estimate of $173.27 billion

Online sales are expected to increase in the third quarter over the second, and one reason why is the successful four-day Prime Day shopping event held earlier in July

Jassy said it set records for sales, number of items sold, and the number of Prime signups in the weeks leading up to the longer event

However, third-quarter operating income is expected to land between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, which at a midpoint of $18 billion misses the Street consensus estimate of $19.5 billion

Guidance always matters, but so does historical context

The company has a history of undermising and overdering

Here's a good example of what we mean by this: Three months ago, Amazon management said it expected second-quarter revenues to be between $159 billion and $164 billion, a range that ved to be too conservative since Amazon just reported $167.7 billion in sales

The same goes for operating income

Last quarter, the company guided to $13 billion and $17.5 billion, and Amazon just ed $19.17 billion

Amazon won't beat the high end of its outlook every quarter, but we take some comfort that the top end of its third-quarter outlook is above the consensus forecast. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN

See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a r to the CNBC with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade

Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio

If Jim has talked a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade

THE ABOVE INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER

NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION VIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE

NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR FIT IS GUARANTEED.