Why we're keeping our buy rating on Amazon — even as shares tumble after earnings
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The market will nitpick a couple of areas in the quarter over the next few days, but the thesis on Amazon is unchanged.
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August 1, 2025
12:12 AM
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Amazon on Thursday dered better-than-expected results on both the top and bottom lines for the second quarter
But a small revenue beat from Amazon Web Services and mixed third-quarter guidance weren't enough to impress investors, knocking the stock down after hours
Revenue increased 13% year over year to $167.7 billion, beating expectations for $162.09 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG
Earnings per based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) increased to $1.68, compared with $1.26 last year and the $1.33 estimate, per LSEG
Operating income increased 31% over last year to $19.17 billion, beating the $16.87 billion consensus forecast
Bottom line The market will nitpick a couple of areas in the quarter over the next few days, including questioning why AWS didn't der the same type of revenue upside as rivals Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud
The criticism is fair, but we don't see it as a sign that AWS is losing out on the AI race
And while the company's guidance for operating income didn't up to expectations, management is known for viding a wide range and beating initial jections
Therefore, we urge caution in reading too deeply into the light outlook when the company is jecting another quarter of healthy revenue growth
Most importantly, the thesis on Amazon is unchanged
The drivers we look at to determine the long-term direction of the stock are revenue growth from AWS and advertising — the two high-margin revenue s
Both were above expectations
Online stores are also important, but our focus there is on management's ability to further lower the cost of serving customers
If there are opportunities to bring costs down, which there are, margins should continue to expand
And as we've said before, if margins are going higher, the stock price
As a result, we view Thursday's sell-off — s are down more than 6% in after-hours trading, giving back all of its year-to-date gains — as a buying opportunity
We're reiterating our 1 rating and increasing our price target to $250 from $240
AMZN 1Y mountain AMZN 1 year return ary Revenue at cloud unit Amazon Web Services (AWS) increased 17.5% year over year to $30.87 billion
It's a tiny beat of $91 million versus the consensus estimate
The growth rate was also a little faster than the 16.9% rate in the first quarter
The upside here wasn't as eye-popping as what Microsoft Azure reported on Wednesday , leading to some disappointment
Once again, management said its AI cloud — which was reaffirmed as being a multi-billion-dollar growing annually at a percentage rate in the triple digits — had enough supply to keep up with demand
In the post-earnings call with investors, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy pointed to several areas facing supply constraints, but emphasized that the biggest challenge at the moment is access to power
This helps explain why s of GE Vernova , one of the largest manufacturers of gas turbines in the world, have doubled this year
Other areas of constraint are chips and components to make the servers
Jassy said it will take several quarters to resolve these shortages, echoing what Microsoft's Amy Hood said on Wednesday
AWS the quarter with a backlog of $195 billion
That's up 25% year over year and $6 billion from the first quarter
But margins from the cloud computing segment were disappointing, too
After nearing 40% in the first quarter, operating margin came back to earth and settled at 32.9% in the second quarter
That's down from both the consensus forecast and last year's result of 35.5%
The company cited a seasonal step up in stock-based compensation costs, higher depreciation expense, and FX rates as reasons for the margin decline from last year
It was revenue beats across the board for the rest of the company's segments
Some of the notable outperformances were in online stores, which beat estimates by $2.5 billion, third-party seller services, and a revenue growth acceleration in the high-margin advertising services
Jassy shot down some of the recent reporting that said prices have increased on the e-commerce platform as a result of tariffs. "There continues to be a lot of noise the impact that tariffs will have on retail prices and consumption
Much of it thus far has been wrong and misreported," he said. "As we said before, it's impossible to know what will happen." "But what we can is what we've seen thus far, which is that through the first half of the year, we haven't yet seen diminishing demand nor prices meaningfully appreciating," Jassy added
Amazon Why we own it : Amazon may be widely known for online shopping, but its cloud is the real breadwinner
Advertising is another fast-growing with high margins
Investment in robust e-commerce logistics infrastructure makes its online storefront the place to be as management works to aggressively decrease dery times and reduce overall costs
Prime leverages free shipping and ing with tons of other perks to keep users paying every month
Competitors : Walmart , Target , Microsoft and Alphabet Most recent buy : April 15, 2025 Initiated : February 2018 By geography, North America sales increased 11% and operating margins expanded 189 basis points from last year to 7.5%
In the international segment, Amazon's revenue increased 16%, but operating income surged thanks to a material increase in operating margins, which surpassed 4% and reached a new company record
Margins for both regions imved from the first quarter as the company continued to reduce the cost to serve its e-commerce customers
Amazon also got a benefit from the recently deployed DeepFleet, an AI model that manages the movement of its robotics in fulfillment centers
Jassy said DeepFleet is helping robots travel more efficiently, translating to faster dery times and lower costs for customers
On the capital expenditure side, Amazon invested roughly $31.4 billion in the second quarter, which was $5 billion more than expected and a step up from $24.3 billion in the first quarter
Management expects the second quarter capex figure to represent the quarterly capital investment rate for the second half of the year, implying full year capex to be $117 billion
That's an increase of management's prior plan to invest $100 billion this year
The primary driver of these investments will go to AWS to support demand for AI services, but Amazon is also in its fulfillment and transportation network
With earnings from the cloud computing "hyperscalers" now complete, once again we saw all the major players spend more than anticipated and signal plans to invest more aggressively in the quarters ahead
Guidance Amazon's 2025 third-quarter guidance was better than anticipated on sales but missed on operating income
The company expects net sales to increase 10% to 13% year over year to $174 billion to $179.5 billion
This outlook is well above the consensus estimate of $173.27 billion
Online sales are expected to increase in the third quarter over the second, and one reason why is the successful four-day Prime Day shopping event held earlier in July
Jassy said it set records for sales, number of items sold, and the number of Prime signups in the weeks leading up to the longer event
However, third-quarter operating income is expected to land between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion, which at a midpoint of $18 billion misses the Street consensus estimate of $19.5 billion
Guidance always matters, but so does historical context
The company has a history of undermising and overdering
Here's a good example of what we mean by this: Three months ago, Amazon management said it expected second-quarter revenues to be between $159 billion and $164 billion, a range that ved to be too conservative since Amazon just reported $167.7 billion in sales
The same goes for operating income
Last quarter, the company guided to $13 billion and $17.5 billion, and Amazon just ed $19.17 billion
Amazon won't beat the high end of its outlook every quarter, but we take some comfort that the top end of its third-quarter outlook is above the consensus forecast. (Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long AMZN
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