White knuckles and ‘massive unknowns’ ahead of Trump’s July 9th tariff deadline

Economy·Donald TrumpWhite knuckles and ‘massive unknowns’ ahead of Trump’s July 9th tariff deadlineBY Nino PaoliBY Nino PaoliNews FellowNino PaoliNews FellowNino Paoli is a Dow Jones News Fund fellow at Fortune on the News desk

President Donald Trump holds up a chart of "recical tariffs" while speaking during a “Make America Wealthy Again” trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2, 2025 in Washington, DC

Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty ImagesThe 90-day pause on recical tariffs is set to expire on July 9, and U

Consumers and investors are left waiting in limbo as President Donald Trump negotiates deals with trade partners

Experts tell Fortune Trump’s next moves could put his credibility in question, as he’s already walked back on previous tariff hikes after his “Liberation Day” announcement

The countdown to the 90-day freeze on sweeping Liberation Day tariffs expires next week, and President Donald Trump’s administration is a far cry from its “90 deals in 90 days” goal

As next week’s deadline apaches, the Trump administration has announced new trade agreements with countries including China, the U. , Vietnam and Indonesia—but details these agreements are scant, and no word of further deals being made yet has left U

Consumers and investors with little clarity

Investors have grown accustomed to the “TACO,” or Trump Always Chickens Out trade, where fall when Trump announces steep tariffs on imports and then jump back up when he pauses them

But experts say this pattern can’t last forever. “Time’s ticking to get deal frameworks in place,” Wedbush Securities Senior Equity Re Analyst Dan Ives told Fortune. “Even though the market has shrugged it off, for es that operate every day, there’s massive unknowns and a lot of white knuckles

It’s a key week and a key few months ahead [for] tariffs. ” Economists already expect current tariff rates to increase costs on consumer goods this summer—these prices could increase further after July 9

Pantheon Macroeconomics economists wrote in a note on Thursday that there is an “imminent risk” of a temporary jump in tariff rates across the board as the deadline nears

But experts are skeptical that Trump will maintain any recical rates imposed next week, as he’s lowered rates in the past as talks with trade partners have continued

Other countries will respond forcefully; they all saw Mr

Trump fold to pressure from China in May,” the Pantheon economists wrote. “The weaker economic backdrop compared to April and the further decline in the president’s apval rating since then also suggest an eventual climbdown is ly. ” Some experts even anticipate little change as the deadline apaches, as current pacts with major trade partners still need to be refined. “So far we have a tiny number of agreements which are themselves not very detailed,” UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan told Fortune in an Thursday. “The Chinese ‘agreement’ is simply a partial de-escalation of an unsustainable deal. ‘agreement’ is partially implemented with plenty of disagreement on the outstanding details

The deadline is ly to serve as a point from which further extensions or continuation of negotiations will be announced. ” Trump’s credibility in question have grown accustomed to Trump walking back on extreme tariffs threats

Now, experts say Trump’s next moves will inform whether countries in negotiations with the U

Have a similar mentality. “[Trump] certainly doesn’t want to be accused of chickening out because it would hurt his credibility in any future negotiations,” Thierry Wizman, Macquarie Group financial economist, told Fortune. “The focus is always on showing that he can in fact cut you off. ” Wizman does expect some deals to be announced, though, which he says will be touted by the administration. “Trump can always come out and say, ‘We have a deal,’ but it will be a deal that’s very narrow in scope

So they’ll segregate the things that they have agreed on and say that’s a deal with China,” Wizman said. “There’s a whole bunch of ways this can go right, and it’s also a whole bunch of ways it can be spun. ” Experts say to expect continued talks past July 9 with many major trading partners the EU. “The deadline is bably not going to change very much—mostly the quo will be retained while negotiations continue with more or less vigour depending on the importance of the bilateral relationship,” UBS’ Donovan wrote. “Uncertainty the ultimate outcome will persist

If there is any attempt to escalate, investors are ly to shrug their shoulders and wait for U

President Trump to retreat. ” Trade with China China accounts for 37

Imports this year, according to supply chain intelligence platform ject44

Still, Wizman says whatever trade agreements to come in the near future may look to lock out China from moving capital in and out of other countries’ supply chains

He says this may be a focus in trade agreements with countries Japan, South Korea and the EU. “If you can get these countries to depend on bilateral trade with the U

And depend less on China, then you basically bolt these countries into the U

Orbit permanently,” Wizman said

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