
Where Will Lucid Group Stock Be in 5 Years?
Key Takeaways
The electric vehicle (EV) revolution was supposed to be unstoppable, but the road has gotten bumpier than many investors expected. Many once-mising players have been forced to bow out, but...
Article Overview
Quick insights and key information
5 min read
Estimated completion
investment
Article classification
July 1, 2025
07:14 AM
The Motley Fool
Original publisher
The electric vehicle (EV) revolution was supposed to be unstoppable, but the road has gotten bumpier than many investors expected
Many once-mising players have been forced to bow out, but Lucid Group (LCID -2. 61%), a favorite of many investors, has managed to stick around despite significant headwinds
So, what might the future hold for the luxury EV maker
Market is softening The macro picture for EVs has changed quite a bit over the past few years
Sales are still growing, but the pace of that growth has slowed significantly
From 2023 to 2024, EV sales grew 40%, but from 2024 to 2025, that was just 10%
Consumer sentiment has degraded as well
Consumers are increasingly wary of large initial price, high repair costs, and a lack of charging infrastructure in many areas
A survey from AAA showed that American attitudes toward EVs are the worst they've been since 2019
Only 16% of respondents said they were ly or very ly to pick an EV as their next car
That's down from 25% just three years ago
Over the same period, the of respondents who said they were unly or very unly to do so grew from 51% to 63%
Things could soon get worse
Right now, President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is working its way through Congress
The Senate is still deliberating on its version, but the House's version, which passed in May, eliminates the EV tax credit that vided up to $7,500 to families purchasing qualified EVs
This, along with rising prices due to automotive tariffs, is ly to further slow domestic EV sales
Things look different outside the U. , especially in China
Roughly half of all new car sales last year were EVs, and by now, one in 10 cars on the road in China are electric, more than twice the in the U
But while the Chinese market is still very strong, Lucid doesn't sell in China at the moment
Lucid is in the midst of a major rollout Despite the lack of strength in the overall U
Market, it's an exciting time for Lucid in many ways
After sales growth flatlined from 2022 to 2023, the company has dered steady growth for the last year and a half
This growth is ly to accelerate as the company ramps up the launch of its Gravity SUV, which is already ving to be very successful
Lucid expects to der 20,000 total vehicles in 2025, more than twice that of 2024
The majority of these new deries will come from its Gravity SUV, while its sedan deries are expected to remain flat
As encouraging as the Gravity launch is, Lucid is still plagued with issues
Aside from the fact that sales of its sedan aren't growing, Lucid loses money on each car it sells -- a lot of money
Last quarter, the company reported $235 million in revenue it earned from dering 3,109 vehicles
It also reported operational costs of $927 million
That means each car lost the company $222,000, well over the average price of a new Lucid
Even if you exclude sales, marketing, administrative, and R&D expenses, the company is still losing $73,000 on every vehicle it sells
Image Source: Getty Images Needless to say, the company has a lot of work to do
Still, these figures are better than they were, and the launch of a new vehicle is always going to be an especially costly time
Though the company needs to work to reduce costs and boost efficiency, which company leadership has assured investors is a top priority, scaling duction will help significantly
There are high fixed costs in manufacturing that become less of an issue when more cars are rolling off the line
Lucid has another revenue Though he's since stepped down, former CEO and CTO Peter Rawlinson said in an interview with an industry publication that he would "love it to be 20-80: Twenty percent doing cars, 80% licensing
Because the vision I have for Lucid is: Just as there's an Intel inside your laptop, there's a Lucid inside a Honda or a Toyota. " Interim CEO Marc Winterhof clarified in the company's earnings call that this doesn't mean the company's focus is not on its vehicles first and foremost, but rather that it's a reflection of the size of the licensing opportunity
Lucid has some of the best nology in the
Its powertrain nology, many of the internal components, and its software are top-of-the-line
Lucid can license this nology to other EV designers and drive revenue growth outside of dering more cars
Where will Lucid be in 5 years
If Lucid executes flawlessly, scales duction efficiently, and successfully grows a significant licensing segment, it could emerge as a fitable niche player
However, there are too many hurdles in the way for my taste
The company is burning incredible amounts of cash in a hyper-competitive field, and I think the most ly outcome is that Lucid continues to struggle over the next five years
Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned
The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned
The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Related Articles
More insights from FinancialBooklet