Where Will Lucid Group Stock Be in 5 Years?
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Where Will Lucid Group Stock Be in 5 Years?

July 1, 2025
07:14 AM
5 min read
AI Enhanced
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The electric vehicle (EV) revolution was supposed to be unstoppable, but the road has gotten bumpier than many investors expected. Many once-mising players have been forced to bow out, but...

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investment

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July 1, 2025

07:14 AM

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moneystocksconsumer staplesutilitiesmarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

The electric vehicle (EV) revolution was supposed to be unstoppable, but the road has gotten bumpier than many investors expected

Many once-mising players have been forced to bow out, but Lucid Group (LCID -2. 61%), a favorite of many investors, has managed to stick around despite significant headwinds

So, what might the future hold for the luxury EV maker

Market is softening The macro picture for EVs has changed quite a bit over the past few years

Sales are still growing, but the pace of that growth has slowed significantly

From 2023 to 2024, EV sales grew 40%, but from 2024 to 2025, that was just 10%

Consumer sentiment has degraded as well

Consumers are increasingly wary of large initial price, high repair costs, and a lack of charging infrastructure in many areas

A survey from AAA showed that American attitudes toward EVs are the worst they've been since 2019

Only 16% of respondents said they were ly or very ly to pick an EV as their next car

That's down from 25% just three years ago

Over the same period, the of respondents who said they were unly or very unly to do so grew from 51% to 63%

Things could soon get worse

Right now, President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" is working its way through Congress

The Senate is still deliberating on its version, but the House's version, which passed in May, eliminates the EV tax credit that vided up to $7,500 to families purchasing qualified EVs

This, along with rising prices due to automotive tariffs, is ly to further slow domestic EV sales

Things look different outside the U. , especially in China

Roughly half of all new car sales last year were EVs, and by now, one in 10 cars on the road in China are electric, more than twice the in the U

But while the Chinese market is still very strong, Lucid doesn't sell in China at the moment

Lucid is in the midst of a major rollout Despite the lack of strength in the overall U

Market, it's an exciting time for Lucid in many ways

After sales growth flatlined from 2022 to 2023, the company has dered steady growth for the last year and a half

This growth is ly to accelerate as the company ramps up the launch of its Gravity SUV, which is already ving to be very successful

Lucid expects to der 20,000 total vehicles in 2025, more than twice that of 2024

The majority of these new deries will come from its Gravity SUV, while its sedan deries are expected to remain flat

As encouraging as the Gravity launch is, Lucid is still plagued with issues

Aside from the fact that sales of its sedan aren't growing, Lucid loses money on each car it sells -- a lot of money

Last quarter, the company reported $235 million in revenue it earned from dering 3,109 vehicles

It also reported operational costs of $927 million

That means each car lost the company $222,000, well over the average price of a new Lucid

Even if you exclude sales, marketing, administrative, and R&D expenses, the company is still losing $73,000 on every vehicle it sells

Image Source: Getty Images Needless to say, the company has a lot of work to do

Still, these figures are better than they were, and the launch of a new vehicle is always going to be an especially costly time

Though the company needs to work to reduce costs and boost efficiency, which company leadership has assured investors is a top priority, scaling duction will help significantly

There are high fixed costs in manufacturing that become less of an issue when more cars are rolling off the line

Lucid has another revenue Though he's since stepped down, former CEO and CTO Peter Rawlinson said in an interview with an industry publication that he would "love it to be 20-80: Twenty percent doing cars, 80% licensing

Because the vision I have for Lucid is: Just as there's an Intel inside your laptop, there's a Lucid inside a Honda or a Toyota. " Interim CEO Marc Winterhof clarified in the company's earnings call that this doesn't mean the company's focus is not on its vehicles first and foremost, but rather that it's a reflection of the size of the licensing opportunity

Lucid has some of the best nology in the

Its powertrain nology, many of the internal components, and its software are top-of-the-line

Lucid can license this nology to other EV designers and drive revenue growth outside of dering more cars

Where will Lucid be in 5 years

If Lucid executes flawlessly, scales duction efficiently, and successfully grows a significant licensing segment, it could emerge as a fitable niche player

However, there are too many hurdles in the way for my taste

The company is burning incredible amounts of cash in a hyper-competitive field, and I think the most ly outcome is that Lucid continues to struggle over the next five years

Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned

The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.