Where Will Lemonade Stock Be in 5 Years?
Key Takeaways
Lemonade (LMND 0. 88%) has experienced explosive growth since going public, and its stock is climbing, up more than 160% during the past year. The insurance nology company has made some...
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July 6, 2025
05:00 AM
The Motley Fool
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Lemonade (LMND 0. 88%) has experienced explosive growth since going public, and its stock is climbing, up more than 160% during the past year
The insurance nology company has made some serious gress, although there are still risks
Let's see where it might be five years from now and whether it's a good time to buy Lemonade stock
Where Lemonade is now Lemonade is 10 years old as of July, and it's been quite a decade
The company uses artificial intelligence (AI) to disrupt traditional insurance and offer a better duct for policy holders
It was built using digital cesses and AI throughout its, including having chatbots onboard customers and assess claims
That may not sound so impressive today, as AI becomes the norm for many companies, but Lemonade has been doing this for years
It relies on data, machine learning, and continually imving algorithms to get things right, cutting out human intervention and lots of headaches and hassle for the average policyholder
Image source: Getty Images
This is ving to be a alternative, and Lemonade is attracting customers at a rapid pace
It had more than 2. 5 million customers as of the end of the 2025 first quarter, a 21% year-over-year increase
The premium per customer is also increasing, up 4% year over year in Q1 to $396
Together, that's leading to increased in-force premium (IFP), Lemonade's preferred top-line metric
It surpassed $1 billion in Q1 for the first time, up 27% from last year
Lemonade has been reporting strong growth since it went public, but it has accelerated the past six quarters
As with many young companies, Lemonade isn't fitable
As an insurance company, it measures its gress and success with metrics beyond revenue and net income
One of the most crucial fitability metrics for an insurance company is the loss ratio, or how much it collects in premiums versus paying policy claims, and Lemonade has been struggling here
Recently, however, it looks it's going in the right direction, which is down
The Q1 loss ratio was 78%, down one percentage point from last year, and the trailing-12-month loss ratio was 73%, in line with 2024's Q4 and below the company's short-term target of 75%
This incredible performance has been lightening the market's mood the continued net losses
The net loss was $62 million in Q1, worse than $47 million a year earlier
Building for the future Buying into Lemonade's thesis and stock is really a bet on its ability to disrupt traditional insurance
Chief Executive Officer Dan Schreiber sees that as a given and that it will happen, and it's just a matter of time before Lemonade's outperforms its legacy competitors
Schreiber notes that, although it's perceived that all insurance companies are using AI today, that's not actually the case
Many of the large, traditional giants are taking a wait-and-see apach, and it's not so simple to switch over all of their systems to the kind of digital substrate where all parts connect and communicate that Lemonade has
Those companies still heavily rely on outside sales agents, who bring in 62% of all perty and casualty premiums, giving Lemonade a leg up in this game
Schreiber thinks that the company's AI nology will be even more potent in the next five to 10 years, and he explains that before the decade is out, those that are moving at the pace of AI will find that the same $1 million that buys one squad's worth of engineering firepower in 2025 will der the equivalent of 90,000 engineers in 2030
Lemonade is well positioned to jump ahead of the competition as that happens
It will also help it on its journey to fitability
Many companies are already restructuring their workforces as they get more done with AI
Today, Lemonade is still in scale mode, spending a lot on marketing to grab more customers
The expectation is that eventually, the revenue from these customers will be more than the money the company is spending on getting them
Its other operational costs have remained constant due to its reliance on AI systems, and because this is insurance, each new customer has lifetime value as they renew their policies, so long as Lemonade can impress them and keep them
Is now the time to buy
Management expects to report positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) by the end of 2026
That would be a milestone, but Wall Street is still expecting a net loss of $1. 97 per next year
Management is shooting for positive net income by the end of 2027 and beyond
If that's the way things go, holders are in for a treat
Even if there are hiccups along the way, it does look five years from now, Lemonade will be bigger and fitable, and its stock should reflect that
Jennifer Saibil has positions in Lemonade
The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Lemonade
The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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