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What we make of Trump's Vietnam trade deal — plus, how to think about Apple's rally

July 2, 2025
07:06 PM
5 min read
AI Enhanced
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Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.

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5 min read

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investment

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Published

July 2, 2025

07:06 PM

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CNBC

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stockstradingvaluetechnologymarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

Every weekday, the CNBC with Jim Cramer releases the stretch — an actionable afternoon, time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street

Market moves: The S & P 500 was nicely higher on Wednesday, with the broad market index on pace for another record close

The session s Tuesday's vicious rotation out of momentum-based, year-to-date winners into more value-oriented laggards

The rotation looks mostly short-d, although we are seeing some continued strength in some selected, unloved value stocks within our portfolio such as DuPont, Danaher, and Dover

Nology was back rallying, with chip stocks names Nvidia and Broadcom up solidly

Both were just a few dollars shy of their record-high closes on Monday

Banking on it : We also love a market rally driven by the bank stocks, and we're getting that Wednesday

Many of them, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, were higher after increased capital return announcements to holders

Those names hit all-time intraday highs

Capital One, which did not raise its capital return plan but has the means to later this year, also logged an all-time high Wednesday

Capital One, also in our portfolio, is poised to extend its winning streak to 10 straight sessions

It's been enjoying a rally as Wall Street realizes what we have been saying all along the power of the credit card giant's acquisition of Discover in mid-May

Vietnam deal: President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States has reached a trade deal with Vietnam

The retail and apparel industries are most impacted by this news since the country is the second largest supplier of footwear, apparel, and accessories sold into the United States

Trump announced that the tariff on Vietnamese imports into the U

Will be lowered to 20%, down from the 46% duty announced on "Liberation Day," and then paused a week later

While that appears to be a positive development, the new rate is still higher than the 10% "recical" tariff granted to most countries— excluding China — for 90 days during trade negotiations

Will impose a 40% tariff on transshipped goods — items originally duced elsewhere but routed through Vietnam to bypass higher duties

Vietnam has been viewed as a key transshipment point for Chinese exporters

In exchange, Trump said Vietnam has agreed to eliminate all tariffs on U

Net-net, we welcome the certainty it brings to the and more trade deals in the future that could bring the same

Apple traction: s of the iPhone maker were on the verge of a four-session winning streak — putting the stock at its highest level since mid-May

Two reasons are driving this rebound

The first is that as the new month/quarter/half of the year turned, there has been a rotation out of first-half winners/momentum-driven stocks and into more "value" based stocks that have lagged

We mentioned that dynamic in the market section

Apple had a disappointing first half of the year and was the third worst performer in the portfolio

The second reason — and one that could have more lasting impact if executed well — is growing speculation that Apple may pivot and partner with an AI-native platform OpenAI to accelerate its own AI initiatives

Based on recent reporting, it appears Apple has finally acknowledged that it's lagging in the AI race and is now making a serious push to enhance its capabilities

That begs the question: Is now the right time to get on board

The idea that Apple might break from tradition and partner with companies Perplexity, OpenAI, or Anthropic to bring its AI offerings more in line with peers has certainly caught investors' attention

Bringing in a real AI partner will materially boost Apple Intelligence, which is the key to unlocking more iPhone sales

But it's tough to get too excited without something more concrete, especially with earnings season just around the corner

As we said in the Morning Meeting, Apple has lost 18% year to date

We don't see a pressing need to sell any more s down here

However, we're reluctant to chase the stock and upgrade our rating, as buying here means betting on the hope that Apple will strike an AI deal soon

There's still no certainty around if or even when that would/could happen

The move over the past week is a preview of how the stock will trade if it announces a meaningful AI deal, but we're keeping the position as a hold-equivalent 2 rating until we have more information

Up next: There are no major earnings reports on Wednesday after the closing bell or before Thursday's opening bell

The big event in Thursday's holiday-shortened trading session is the government's nonfarm payroll report for June

As we've said before, the jobs report has the power to set the tone for trading in the new month

The consensus estimate for job gains is 115,000, with an unemployment rate ticking to 4. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust. ) As a r to the CNBC with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade

Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio

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