What we make of Trump's Vietnam trade deal — plus, how to think about Apple's rally
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Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
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July 2, 2025
07:06 PM
CNBC
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Every weekday, the CNBC with Jim Cramer releases the stretch — an actionable afternoon, time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street
Market moves: The S & P 500 was nicely higher on Wednesday, with the broad market index on pace for another record close
The session s Tuesday's vicious rotation out of momentum-based, year-to-date winners into more value-oriented laggards
The rotation looks mostly short-d, although we are seeing some continued strength in some selected, unloved value stocks within our portfolio such as DuPont, Danaher, and Dover
Nology was back rallying, with chip stocks names Nvidia and Broadcom up solidly
Both were just a few dollars shy of their record-high closes on Monday
Banking on it : We also love a market rally driven by the bank stocks, and we're getting that Wednesday
Many of them, including Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, were higher after increased capital return announcements to holders
Those names hit all-time intraday highs
Capital One, which did not raise its capital return plan but has the means to later this year, also logged an all-time high Wednesday
Capital One, also in our portfolio, is poised to extend its winning streak to 10 straight sessions
It's been enjoying a rally as Wall Street realizes what we have been saying all along the power of the credit card giant's acquisition of Discover in mid-May
Vietnam deal: President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that the United States has reached a trade deal with Vietnam
The retail and apparel industries are most impacted by this news since the country is the second largest supplier of footwear, apparel, and accessories sold into the United States
Trump announced that the tariff on Vietnamese imports into the U
Will be lowered to 20%, down from the 46% duty announced on "Liberation Day," and then paused a week later
While that appears to be a positive development, the new rate is still higher than the 10% "recical" tariff granted to most countries— excluding China — for 90 days during trade negotiations
Will impose a 40% tariff on transshipped goods — items originally duced elsewhere but routed through Vietnam to bypass higher duties
Vietnam has been viewed as a key transshipment point for Chinese exporters
In exchange, Trump said Vietnam has agreed to eliminate all tariffs on U
Net-net, we welcome the certainty it brings to the and more trade deals in the future that could bring the same
Apple traction: s of the iPhone maker were on the verge of a four-session winning streak — putting the stock at its highest level since mid-May
Two reasons are driving this rebound
The first is that as the new month/quarter/half of the year turned, there has been a rotation out of first-half winners/momentum-driven stocks and into more "value" based stocks that have lagged
We mentioned that dynamic in the market section
Apple had a disappointing first half of the year and was the third worst performer in the portfolio
The second reason — and one that could have more lasting impact if executed well — is growing speculation that Apple may pivot and partner with an AI-native platform OpenAI to accelerate its own AI initiatives
Based on recent reporting, it appears Apple has finally acknowledged that it's lagging in the AI race and is now making a serious push to enhance its capabilities
That begs the question: Is now the right time to get on board
The idea that Apple might break from tradition and partner with companies Perplexity, OpenAI, or Anthropic to bring its AI offerings more in line with peers has certainly caught investors' attention
Bringing in a real AI partner will materially boost Apple Intelligence, which is the key to unlocking more iPhone sales
But it's tough to get too excited without something more concrete, especially with earnings season just around the corner
As we said in the Morning Meeting, Apple has lost 18% year to date
We don't see a pressing need to sell any more s down here
However, we're reluctant to chase the stock and upgrade our rating, as buying here means betting on the hope that Apple will strike an AI deal soon
There's still no certainty around if or even when that would/could happen
The move over the past week is a preview of how the stock will trade if it announces a meaningful AI deal, but we're keeping the position as a hold-equivalent 2 rating until we have more information
Up next: There are no major earnings reports on Wednesday after the closing bell or before Thursday's opening bell
The big event in Thursday's holiday-shortened trading session is the government's nonfarm payroll report for June
As we've said before, the jobs report has the power to set the tone for trading in the new month
The consensus estimate for job gains is 115,000, with an unemployment rate ticking to 4. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust. ) As a r to the CNBC with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade
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