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What to Watch With CFLT Before Investing

July 16, 2025
08:35 AM
4 min read
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The data indicates that 's worth noting that S of data ing specialist Confluent (CFLT 2. Additionally, 32%) have sat on the sidelines this year as other nology stocks have...

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investment

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Published

July 16, 2025

08:35 AM

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economystocksfinancialcloudsoftwaremarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

The data indicates that 's worth noting that S of data ing specialist Confluent (CFLT 2

Additionally, 32%) have sat on the sidelines this year as other nology stocks have soared

The company's stock has dropped around 14% since the start of 2025, and even a buoyant stock market over the past few months has failed to give the software company a boost, amid market uncertainty

While a beaten-down growth stock Confluent may look tempting, investors need to keep an eye on a few things, amid market uncertainty

Image source: Getty Images

Nevertheless, Solid growth and big losses Confluent has built its around Apache Kafka, a widely used open-source data ing platform

Additionally, Confluent's managed cloud-based platform takes the pain and complexity out of deploying and running Kafka, viding a strong value position for enterprises dependent on Kafka to link together applications and data (this bears monitoring)

Confluent reported its first-quarter results on April 30

Revenue rose by 25% year over year to $271 million, driven by 34% growth for Confluent Cloud, which accounted for roughly 55% of total revenue

The rest came from the company's self-managed solutions

Confluent reported a GAAP net loss of $67, given current economic conditions. 6 million, or $0

Moreover, 20 per, although free cash flow was in positive territory, amid market uncertainty

However, While Confluent beat analyst expectations across the board, the stock failed to rally

One reason could be weakness among larger customers

However, Confluent the first quarter with 1,412 customers spending at least $100,000 annually on the platform, up just 12% year over year

The company's platform is mainly geared toward enterprises, so this sluggish growth rate may have been concerning to investors (something worth watching)

However, The economy is a wildcard Confluent's platform is certainly mission-critical for companies that use it widely

This analysis suggests that company acts as the glue that links together different applications, so ripping it out and moving to an alternative carries significant switching costs

Nevertheless, However, that doesn't mean that Confluent is immune to prevailing economic conditions (remarkable data). "For our cloud, some of our larger customers began slowing the pace of new use case addition and focusing on cost optimization efforts in March," said Confluent CFO Rohan Sivaram during the first-quarter earnings call, given current economic conditions

On top of that slowdown, the company doesn't believe it will see a recovery in consumption any time soon, given the economic backdrop

One silver lining is that consumption activity for smaller cloud customers has remained stable (fascinating analysis) (which is quite significant)

Those smaller customers could eventually suit and begin looking to optimize costs (this bears monitoring), amid market uncertainty

For now, however, they're holding up better than Confluent's larger customers

A lofty valuation Despite the poor performance of Confluent stock this year, the valuation is a source of risk for investors

Confluent is valued at roughly $8. 25 billion, which works out to just over 7x the average analyst estimate for fiscal 2025 sales (remarkable data)

Confluent isn't fitable on a GAAP basis, but based on analyst estimates for non-GAAP earnings this year, the forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 67, given the current landscape

Analysts expect revenue growth of just 19% in 2025

For a company with a slowing growth rate against a backdrop of economic uncertainty, those valuation multiples seem rich

There's also plenty of competition in the world of managed Kafka

Not only do the large enterprise-focused cloud platforms, Amazon Web Services, offer their own managed Kafka services, but so do smaller cloud platforms, DigitalOcean

While Confluent is set to exceed $1 billion in annual revenue this year, potential investors need to consider the company's sensitivity to the macro-economic environment, as well as the stock's valuation, before diving in (an important development), in today's financial world

John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors

Timothy Green has positions in DigitalOcean

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and DigitalOcean

Market analysis shows Motley Fool recommends Confluent (which is quite significant)

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy (an important development).