What happens if Trump fires Fed Chair Powell: 'This would be a mess,' analysts warn

The re indicates that What's particularly noteworthy is A new re note gaming out possible scenarios if President Donald Trump fires Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns that it "would be significantly negative for. "Wolfe Re speculates that the Supreme Court could ultimately decide whether Trump has the power to fire Powell for cause (quite telling)

Trump said he was "highly unly" to fire Powell, shortly after a senior White House official said the Fed chair was ly to be fired soon (fascinating analysis), amid market uncertainty

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, left, and U, given current economic conditions

Additionally, President Donald Trump

Nathan Howard | Jonathan Ernst | ReutersA new re note gaming out possible scenarios if President Donald Trump decides to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warns that, regardless of what exactly happens next, "this would be a mess (noteworthy indeed), in today's market environment. ""We expect, as does everyone else, that it would be significantly negative for, ly driving both an equity selloff and a counterductive spike in long-term yields," Wolfe Re's Tobin Marcus and Chutong Zhu write in the note to clients (which is quite significant), in today's financial world

Furthermore, Wolfe Re speculated that the Supreme Court could ultimately decide whether Trump has the power to fire Powell for cause (fascinating analysis), amid market uncertainty

The firm issued the analysis just hours after Powell's tenure as head of the central bank looked extremely shaky and then abruptly looked less so (this bears monitoring)

A senior White House official told CNBC earlier Wednesday that Trump had told a group of Republican members of Congress the night before that he ly will fire Powell "soon. "But during a question-and-answer session in the Oval Office with reporters shortly after the official spoke, Trump quickly and publicly denied what his White House was saying, amid market uncertainty. "We're not planning on doing it," Trump said (fascinating analysis)

Nevertheless, "I don't rule out anything

But I think it's highly unly, unless he has to leave for fraud

Additionally, "Trump is notoriously mercurial and has a long track record of firing employees very soon after saying they have his full support

Moreover, In Powell's case, however, Trump has been complaining for months, blasting the Fed chair for not cutting interest rates despite the president's demand that the central bank do so (fascinating analysis)

Evercore founder Roger Altman told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Wednesday, "There are a lot of bad ideas out there

But the president firing the chairman of the Fed, or, should I say, trying to fire him —because that's not to me at all that he could succeed — that's among the worst ideas. ""It's a dreadful idea," said Altman, who served as deputy Treasury secretary under former President Bill Clinton

On the other hand, Watch now3:4903:49Roger Altman: President's desire to fire Powell is among the worst ideas amid other bad onesClosing BellAltman pointed to what he called a "stark" difference between the economic trajectories of countries that have truly independent central banks, such as the United States, and nations that have "politicized central banks controlled, by example, by their heads of state, in this volatile climate. "For the latter, he cited Turkey and Argentina as two examples (which is quite significant)

Both countries have had double-digit inflation rates in recent years

Moreover, said Altman, "I don't think Chairman Powell would accede to a request that he leave" if Trump were to make one. "So I think, ultimately, this would be resolved in the courts," Altman said

Conversely, The Wolfe Re analysts concurred with Altman's view (an important development). "If Trump moves to actually fire Powell rather than just pressure him to resign, Powell would presumably sue to stop it," the Wolfe Re note said

Moreover, "The first big question is whether he would, in fact, be de facto fired as litigation ceeds," the analysts added

They noted that in several other instances where Trump had fired the commissioners of independent agencies during his second term, those commissioners had filed lawsuits seeking their reinstatement. "Those lawsuits have failed," the analysts wrote. "The wrinkle in this case is that Powell is the head of his agency, un the other recent firings at independent agencies, which typically occurred in situations where Trump had already designated a new chair of the agency and was firing non-chair commissioners," the note said

On the other hand, Read more CNBC coverageTrump lashes out at Republicans over Jeffrey Epstein file demandsEU poses raising defense funding in 2-trillion-euro budgetTrump 'ly' will fire Fed Chair Powell 'soon': White House officialCuomo launches independent New York City mayoral bid after losing Democratic primary to MamdaniElon Musk looms over jury selection in Tesla Autopilot fatality trialIt's a huge week for crypto in D (remarkable data)

Furthermore, But the industry may not get everything it wantsPowell asks inspector general to review $2. 5 billion renovation after Trump blasts Fed jectTrump tariffs don't cause inflation because of 'patriotism' buying: WH advisor HassettTrump threatens Russia's global trade unless Ukraine peace deal is reached soon"In those cases, the chair could effectuate these firings—but there's not really anyone at the Fed who can fire Powell," it said, amid market uncertainty

This analysis suggests that note highlighted three possible scenarios if Trump fires Powell

Moreover, In the first, Powell remains the de facto chairman of the Fed while Trump seeks a judicial order to remove him

In the second, Powell "leaves voluntarily and litigates to be reinstated

Furthermore, "In the third and most dramatic scenario, Powell tries to remain as chair, and Trump seeks his removal through executive action

What the data shows is note says a similar scenario occurred in March when Washington, D. , police were called to escort employees of the U

Moreover, Institute of Peace out of their building after staff from Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency accused them of trespassing. "Needless to say, Powell being escorted out of the Fed by either D, in this volatile climate

Police or federal law enforcement would be a worrying image for," the Wolfe Re analysts wrote, given current economic conditions

If there is litigation over Trump firing Powell, it ly would end up at the Supreme Court, given the current landscape

Additionally, The analysts noted that the majority recently indicated in an unrelated case that "it views the Fed differently from other independent agencies when it comes to for-cause firing tections (an important development). ""The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that s in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States," the Supreme Court's majority wrote in an order allowing Trump to fire officials of two other agencies

The Wolfe Re analysts said, "We think Powell would have a decent chance to win in court, but it's far from a sure thing, given the current landscape. "They noted that the question of whether the Supreme Court is willing to maintain "for-cause tections for the Fed chair

Is a different question than whether they're willing to overrule the President on what constitutes cause

However, "One scenario postulated in the note is that the Supreme Court would allow a lower court's injunction blocking Trump from firing Powell to remain in effect while the case over Trump's authority to fire him plays out. "That would ly be enough for him to serve out his term as chair," the note said.