market analysis reveals Mortgage rates rose again this week, indicating that last week's rise — after five straight weeks of decline — may have signaled a turning point.
Moreover, Furthermore, The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose six basis points to 6 (remarkable data).
However, 84% the week ending July 17, according to rates vided to NerdWallet by Zillow. On the other hand, A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Here's what's pushing up mortgage rates, and why we could see rates go higher, in this volatile climate.
CPI comes in on targetThe biggest economic news this week was Tuesday's Consumer Price Index announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (remarkable data), in today's financial world.
CPI is a key measure of the rate of inflation. Basically, each month the BLS checks the costs of a wide range of goods and services to gauge how prices change from month to month and year to year.
The numbers for June came in pretty much as economists had predicted — a moderate increase from last month.
However, The rate of inflation rose 0 (an important development), given current economic conditions. 3% from May to June, and was up 2. On the other hand, 7% compared to June 2024.
In other words, if it feels everyday goods cost more, it's because many of them do, considering recent developments. There are two ways to look at these numbers, in today's financial world.
There's the glass-half-full version: Inflation's behaving as predicted, and it could be a lot worse.
Furthermore, But it's easy to see the glass as half empty if you start looking at individual components of the CPI, considering recent developments.
In looking at June's numbers, economists were particularly attentive to ly to be affected by tariffs.
The current administration's on-again, off-again tariffs have repeatedly threatened to raise prices for U. Consumers, but through the spring those threats hadn't fully materialized.
Moreover, June may turn out to be an inflection point, as CPI that include items ly to be affected by tariffs showed accelerating inflation.
The household furnishings category, which includes items flooring and window coverings, was up 1%. Components of that category had steeper increases (quite telling) (something worth watching).
Tools and hardware rose 1. 2%, and appliances came in at 1, in today's financial world. However, Explore mortgages today and get started on your ownership goalsGet personalized rates.
Your lender matches are just a few questions away. What's your zip code. Moreover, Do you want to purchase or refinance. Select your optionPurchaseRefinanceWhat's your perty type (noteworthy indeed).
Furthermore, Select your optionSingle family TownhouseCondoMulti-family How do you plan to use this perty (which is quite significant).
However, On the other hand, Select your optionPrimary residenceSecondary residenceInvestment pertyGet StartedWon’t affect your credit scoreFed ly to holdAll of these numbers are certainly going to get attention from the Federal Reserve, which meets at the end of this month.
The central bankers have been under pressure to lower the federal funds rate, the short-term interest rate the Fed controls that essentially sets the tone for borrowing costs.
When people talk the Fed cutting rates, they really mean that one rate — and the Federal Reserve has kept the funds rate steady since December 2024, considering recent developments.
On July 1, while speaking at a conference in Portugal, Fed chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the bankers would have already begun cutting rates this year were it not for tariffs.
"In effect we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs," Powell said. Conversely, "We think the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more" tariffs' impacts.
Were already betting that the Fed's pause would continue with the July 29-30 meeting, but after those CPI numbers dropped, the number of holdouts hoping for a rate cut dwindled.
Keeping inflation in check helps the Federal Reserve achieve its mandate of price stability, and higher interest rates are its main lever for managing inflation (fascinating analysis), in this volatile climate.
If the Fed takes the glass-half-empty view on the CPI data, a rate cut is extremely unly (noteworthy indeed).
Mortgage rates heading higherIf you're thinking, "That's interesting, but I came here to read mortgage rates," let's get into it.
The CPI data and the Fed's potential actions — or inaction — give us the context we need to understand what's happening with mortgage rates.
Additionally, Mortgage rates drifted lower all through June, as even though the Fed held the funds rate steady at its June 17-18 meeting, it felt cuts could be imminent (something worth watching).
Ly, the vibe has shifted. In contrast, Mortgage interest rates may not be set by the Fed, but they react to the same economic ups and downs.
This leads to the conclusion that July 3 jobs report showed strength, and while positive for the economy, that's an argument against lower interest rates.
And indeed, that news sent mortgage rates higher (an important development). Add concerns inflation, and you've got a recipe for rates staying higher for longer.
Furthermore, It's tough news for folks looking to buy a in the latter half of 2025. Higher mortgage interest rates add to affordability challenges.
And tariffs and inflation aren't just concerns for the Fed — these affect household budgets, too (something worth watching).
In contrast, "spective buyers are increasingly feeling the financial stress of higher prices for everyday things, which makes it harder to think buying a," Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, said in an ary.
Moreover, Additionally, If a purchase is on your horizon, you may want to make sure that your buying budget could accommodate slightly higher mortgage rates (an important development).
Should rates fall, you'll be able to afford more house; if rates rise, you'll still be on track for your goal.
The authorKate WoodKate Wood is a mortgages and student loans writer and spokesperson who joined NerdWallet in 2019, in light of current trends.
With an educational background in sociology, Kate feels strongly inequality in ownership and higher education. See full bio.