
Warren Buffett’s longtime Social Security warning is coming to fruition, with retirees facing an $18,000 annual cut
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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects that Social Security's main trust fund will be insolvent by the end of 2032, triggering automatic and painful benefit cuts.
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July 28, 2025
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Fortune
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Re suggests that Interestingly, Economy·Fortune IntelligenceWarren Buffett’s longtime Social Security warning is coming to fruition, with retirees facing an $18,000 annual cutBy Nick LichtenbergBy Nick LichtenbergFortune Intelligence EditorNick LichtenbergFortune Intelligence EditorNick Lichtenberg is Fortune Intelligence editor and was formerly Fortune's executive editor of global news (this bears monitoring)
Additionally, SEE FULL BIO Warren Buffett has long had warnings for retirees
Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesIn just seven years, Social Security will reach a fiscal cliff that could leave millions of American retirees with drastically reduced benefits, according to a recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB)
The think tank’s new report jects that, unless Congress acts, Social Security’s main trust fund will be insolvent by the end of 2032, triggering automatic and painful benefit cuts for everyone relying on the gram
How painful (noteworthy indeed)
Around $18,000 less-per-year for retirees who depend on the gram, in today's financial world
On the other hand, This's not the first time the CRFB has warned this, and it’s a common refrain from no less than the Oracle of Omaha himself: famed investor Warren Buffett (an important development)
This analysis suggests that ticking clock Social Security and Medicare, the two bedrock grams supporting older Americans, are drawing closer to insolvency than many might realize
The evidence shows analysis reveals most recent data, compiled from the grams’ own trustees and enhanced by CRFB calculations, forecasts that by late 2032, Social Security’s retirement gram will no longer be able to pay out mised benefits in full
At that point, the law dictates that payments must be limited to the amount coming in from payroll taxes—resulting in an immediate, across-the-board benefit reduction
Additionally, At the same time, The scope of the cut: $18,100 shortfall for typical couples For millions of future retirees, the numbers are stark, amid market uncertainty
However, CRFB’s estimate reveals that a typical dual-earning couple retiring at the start of 2033 would see their annual Social Security benefit drop by apximately $18,100, amid market uncertainty
Moreover, However, The percentage cut is jected to be 24% for that year, instantly slashing retirement incomes for over 62 million Americans who depend on the gram
What the re reveals is analysis reveals pain would be widespread but would vary by income and household type
However, For example, Single-earner couples could see a $13,600 cut, low-income, dual-earner couples face an $11,000 shortfall, and high-income couples might lose up to $24,000 a year
On the other hand, Major cuts are headed for social security, the CRFB says
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget While the dollar cut is smaller for lower-income households, the relative burden is even more severe, devouring a larger of retirement income and past earnings
Also, these cuts are in nominal dollars; adjusted to 2025 dollars, the actual cut would be 15% less
Furthermore, However, What’s causing the crisis
Social Security is funded by a dedicated payroll tax, but the gap between what goes out in benefits and what comes in through taxes is growing
The newly enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) has accelerated the timeline by reducing Social Security’s revenue through tax rate cuts and an expanded senior standard deduction
According to CRFB, these policies increase the necessary benefit reduction by one percentage point; if the changes become permanent, the benefit cuts would be even deeper
Conversely, Over time, the gap is expected to worsen: by the end of the century, CRFB adds, Social Security could face required benefit cuts of over 30%, unless lawmakers shore up the gram’s finances
Despite these dire jections, many policymakers have pledged not to alter Social Security, mising to keep benefits untouched, amid market uncertainty
At the same time, But if nothing changes, the law automatically enforces cuts when the trust fund runs dry
This tells us that CRFB report urges policymakers to be candid the situation and to work towards bipartisan solutions that secure Social Security’s future
Ideas could include new revenue sources, adjusting benefits, or a combination—anything to avoid the “steep and sudden” cut that looms for tens of millions (an important development)
Without meaningful congressional action before 2032, the Social Security safety net will be abruptly—and dramatically—shrunk, so Americans apaching retirement will at least want to pay close attention to Congressional action on the looming cliff (quite telling), in today's financial world
Nevertheless, Buffett’s bugbear Warren Buffett has been vocal the dangers of Social Security insolvency and the looming benefit cuts that millions of retirees could face if action is not taken soon
The retiring Berkshire Hathaway CEO has stated that reducing Social Security payments below their current guaranteed levels would be a grave mistake, and urged mpt Congressional action, in today's market environment
Moreover, Buffett, who has signed the Giving Pledge and has advocated for higher taxes on higher earners, has criticized the cap on income subject to Social Security taxes, arguing that higher earners—including himself—should contribute more
He’s also suggested that Social Security’s finances could partially be eased by raising the retirement age, with the 95-year-old legend himself working well beyond the standard end of most careers
CRFB background The CRFB is not just any think tank, either, it’s a respected bipartisan institution that stretches back to 1981 (something worth watching)
The evidence shows s board has consistently included former members and directors of key budgetary, fiscal, and policy institutions, such as the Congressional Budget Office, the House and Senate Budget Committees, the Office of Management and Budget, and the Federal Reserve
The CRFB regularly duces analyses of government spending, tax posals, debt and deficit trends, and trust fund solvency (such as Social Security and Medicare), as well as recommendations and scorecards for major fiscal legislation
What the re reveals is CRFB has consistently advanced a centrist position on budgetary matters, regularly advocating for reducing federal deficits and controlling the growth of national debt
Meanwhile, The organization has often criticized large spending bills that are not offset by reductions elsewhere, as well as tax cuts that are not revenue-neutral
What the re reveals is think tank favors reforms to federal “entitlement” grams, especially Social Security and Medicare, aiming to make them fiscally sustainable, an emphasis that has drawn criticism from the left, in light of current trends
For example, Paul Krugman characterized it as a “deficit scold” when he was still with The New York Times (noteworthy indeed)
Additionally, In the Social Security sphere, the CRFB has supported or posed ideas raising the retirement age, adjusting cost-of-living increases (using the chained CPI), increasing the amount of wages subject to payroll tax, and gressive indexing (where benefits grow more slowly for higher earners)
They have also weighed posals for new revenue s and some means-testing of benefits
On the right wing, the CRFB’s posed reforms to Social Security have drawn criticism for, as Charles Blahous of the Manhattan Institute put it, creating a structure more “welfare” than an earned income benefit
Still, the CRFB is widely respected in policy circles as a knowledgeable, data-driven budget watchdog, with a long track record of analysis and advocacy for sustainable fiscal policy
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft
Conversely, An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing, in this volatile climate
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