Wall Street is upbeat on tech megacaps, but big questions loom on AI spending, China, Trump tariffs
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Tech earnings season kicks off on Wednesday after market close with results from Alphabet and Tesla.
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July 22, 2025
06:55 PM
CNBC
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Market analysis reveals I find it compelling that Earnings season kicks off Wednesday with results from Alphabet and Tesla, ed by Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple next week
Additionally, President Trump's tariffs and AI spending were the big topics last quarter and remain top of mind for investors
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg's multibillion-dollar AI hiring spree is the indication that companies are willing to spend top dollar to compete
In this articleAAPLAMZNMSFTMETATSLAGOOGL your favorite stocksCREATE FREE ACCOUNTMark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms Inc. ; from left, Lauren Sanchez; Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon. ; Sundar Pichai, CEO of Alphabet Inc. ; and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Inc (which is quite significant). , during the 60th presidential inauguration in the rotunda of the U
Capitol in Washington, D
Julia Demaree Nikhinson | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAs Alphabet and Tesla get set to kick off the industry's second-quarter earnings blitz on Wednesday, Wall Street appears to be feeling good
On the other hand, The Nasdaq closed at a record on Monday, notching its sixth straight day in the green, and is now up 8% for the year after a rocky first quarter
Furthermore, But what happens over the next 10 days will ly determine whether the rally has legs
Additionally, Ing Wednesday's earnings announcements, the rest of the megacaps issue results next week, except for Nvidia, which should report in late August
Meta and Microsoft report earnings next Wednesday, with Amazon and Apple set to a day later
Last reporting period, investors worried the strain of hefty tariffs on nology es and on whether big gambles on artificial intelligence would lead to returns for holders, or were signs of an inflating bubble
Nevertheless, Three months later, stocks have bounced back, but the the industry is still grappling with the fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic global tariff policies and uncertainty over where duties on imports will ultimately land, given current economic conditions
In contrast, Apple, Amazon and Alphabet all warned in the prior quarter that strained relationships with trading partners could weigh on fits, hurting duct sales and ad spending
And the AI market has only gotten crazier, as companies show their willingness to pay astronomical sums for talent in addition to the tens of billions of dollars they're spending on infrastructure and model development (remarkable data)
Meta's Mark Zuckerberg shocked the market in June, shelling out more than $14 billion to hire Scale AI CEO CEO Alexandr Wang and a few of his top staffers as part of an investment into the nine-year-old startup
Conversely, Here's what investors will be closely ing from the giants as earnings season commences, given current economic conditions
In contrast, AlphabetGoogle CEO Sundar Pichai addresses the crowd during Google's annual I/O developers conference in Mountain View, California on May 20, 2025
Camille Cohen | AFP | Getty ImagesAlphabet's dominant online ad took a big hit earlier this year as worries mounted that Trump's tariff plans could crimp spending
Those fears haven't subsided (quite telling)
Revenue growth is expected to come in at 11%, according to LSEG, which would be the slowest rate of expansion for any period in two years
Alphabet s have just turned positive for the year, still significantly lagging behind the Nasdaq
Furthermore, Last quarter, Alphabet narrowly beat estimates and fell short on YouTube revenue
Its chief officer also said trade policies would "cause a slight headwind" to the company's ads, primarily from retailers based in the Asia-Pacific region
At the same time, Analysts have suggested of late that the may be back on an upswing, thanks in part to advances in AI (fascinating analysis) (an important development)
Additionally, Deutsche Bank analysts noted acceleration in the second quarter, while analysts at Goldman Sachs said the company's is in the "midst of a multi-year transformation (this bears monitoring). "Read more CNBC newsU
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Additionally, 94 million worth of sBMO Capital analysts echoed that sentiment, writing in a recent note that return on ad spend (ROAS) should be imving
In contrast, "As AI monetization continues to evolve, we believe Google will increasingly leverage its over twenty years of AI initiatives to continue expanding ROAS for its advertisers. " the analysts wrote
Cloud revenue remains another key focus for holders eager to see how AI tools are boosting a unit that's trying to keep pace with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure
In contrast, Earlier this year, Alphabet said it would shell out $75 billion to beef up its data centers underpinning its AI and cloud (fascinating analysis)
Then there's the Waymo, which has been a major source of investment for years, given the current landscape
This leads to the conclusion that robotaxi service now operates in five major U
Cities and its vehicles had driven more than 100 million miles without a human driver or supervisor on board as of July 15
Moreover, TeslaUS President Donald Trump, right, and Elon Musk, chief executive officer of Tesla Inc (something worth watching). , during a news conference in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, May 30, 2025 (noteworthy indeed)
Meanwhile, Francis Chung | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesTesla remains the biggest laggard in the group, with its stock down 17% this year heading into Wednesday's earnings report after the bell, in today's market environment
Earlier this month, Tesla reported a 14% year-over-year drop in second-quarter deries, marking a second straight quarterly decline
Nevertheless, Automotive revenue in the first quarter fell 20%, and analysts are expecting a similar slide for the second quarter
Nevertheless, Tesla is battling competition from Chinese and other EV makers that are offering cheaper alternatives, amid market uncertainty
With Tesla, the story always revolves heavily around CEO Elon Musk
What the re reveals is earnings call will be the first since Musk's public split with President Trump, considering recent developments
After spending over $250 million to help pel Trump back to the White House, Musk in May his stint as a special government employee leading Trump's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), only to initiate a spat with the president over the multitrillion-dollar spending package he endorsed
However, Some investors may tune into the call to hear if Musk has anything to say regarding his current plan to build a new political party in the U
Meanwhile, But most will be focused on the company's fundamentals and the many challenges it currently faces in trying to revitalize its EV sales, in today's market environment
Tesla has long mised an affordable new EV model that could help it fend off the competition
Another big topic will ly be Tesla's robotaxi efforts after the company launched a limited driverless ride-hail service in Austin, Texas last month
While the Tesla Robotaxi rollout was seen by fans as a positive sign for the company, Bank of America analysts say it has "immaterial financial ramifications, considering recent developments
Additionally, "MetaMark Zuckerberg, chief executive officer of Meta Platforms Inc
At the same time, , during the Meta Connect event on Wednesday, Sept
Moreover, Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesZuckerberg's AI spending spree has raised a lot of eyebrows
In addition to the hiring of Wang from Scale AI, Meta also brought on former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman and his partner Daniel Gross, who had been CEO of AI startup Safe Superintelligence, in light of current trends
Zuckerberg later announced the creation of Meta Superintelligence Labs, led by Wang and Friedman
And Meta's CEO said last week that he plans to invest "hundreds of billions of dollars" into AI compute infrastructure, with plans to bring its first supercluster online next year (noteworthy indeed), considering recent developments
Furthermore, Last quarter, Meta upped its full-year capital expenditures outlook to between $64 billion and $72 billion from between $60 billion and $65 billion to reflect more data center investments in AI and potentially higher hardware costs
The pressure is on Zuckerberg to show results, or at least offer a strategy that investors can support
Furthermore, "While the recent talent hires and focus in this area are notable — and we expect meaningful imvements in models and user-facing applications — the road to platform leadership in AI remains long and highly competitive," analysts at MoffettNathanson wrote in a recent report (this bears monitoring)
Furthermore, Analysts at Bank of America said they view Zuckerberg's ary as "sign of confidence" in the strength of the company's
Meta is expected to report revenue growth of 14 (this bears monitoring)
However, 5% for the second quarter, according to analysts surveyed by LSEG, which would be the slowest growth rate since mid-2023, and Wall Street jects deceleration over the next two quarters
Moreover, The Bank of America analysts wrote that Meta needs to "make a case for strong AI returns to drive multiple expansion. "MicrosoftMicrosoft Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella speaks during the Microsoft Build conference opening keynote in Seattle, Washington on May 19, 2025
Jason Redmond | Afp | Getty ImagesAzure remains the focal point at Microsoft
It's the that sparked CEO Satya Nadella's turnaround of the software maker over a decade ago, and is key to its ambitions in AI, where Microsoft has a tight but tense relationship with OpenAI
Furthermore, Microsoft's stock hit a record last week and is now up 20% for the year, even with Meta and just behind Nvidia, which is the best performer this year among the megacaps
With a market cap of $3. 8 trillion, Microsoft is firmly the second-largest company by value, trailing only Nvidia in that category as well
Nevertheless, Analysts still see plenty of strength in Azure
Additionally, However, Mizuho told clients "one larger workload repatriation" during the quarter, which means the return to a physical data center
On the other hand, BMO analysts cited input from experts, who said President Trump's DOGE effort has "made it more difficult to close Fed deals. "Amy Hood, Microsoft's finance chief, said in April that she expects 34% to 35% quarterly revenue growth for the current period from Azure and other cloud services
The growth rate was 35% last quarter
Additionally, For Microsoft, which started its new fiscal year on July 1, investors also await fresh spending guidance, amid market uncertainty
This analysis suggests that consensus among analysts polled by Visible Alpha is $99 billion, in today's market environment
That would represent growth of 14%, compared with 56% expansion in the last fiscal year
Moreover, Hood said in April that capital spending growth will slow (quite telling)
The company has already made cost-cutting strides this month, axing 9,000 employees in its round of layoffs, considering recent developments
Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha see $73 billion in operating expenses in Microsoft's fiscal 2026, which implies 11% growth
AppleApple CEO Tim Cook speaks during Apple's annual World Wide Developers Conference at the company's headquarters in Cupertino, California, U
Furthermore, , June 9, 2025
Laure Andrillon | ReutersApple's biggest market may be the U (this bears monitoring)
Furthermore, , but the iPhone maker relies heavily on China and other Asian countries for parts and manufacturing for some of its most significant ducts
On the other hand, Additionally, The company was one of the est losers from Trump's aggressive tariff agenda, which threatened to hamper global trade and hike the costs of selling ducts in the U
Apple s have tumbled 15% this year
Investors want more clarity on the company's strategy from here (an important development)
Nevertheless, In contrast, In recent weeks, Trump has also held talks with India and Vietnam, where Apple has shifted some duction in recent years
Revenue is expected to increase 4% from a year earlier, according to LSEG, roughly inline with recent performance
Over the past four quarters, annual growth has ranged from 2% to 6%, in today's financial world
On the other hand, Apple refrained from offering guidance last quarter, but CEO Tim Cook said the company was expecting an additional $900 million in costs for the period that in June (something worth watching)
That was barring any changes to Trump's original tariff plans
The president lauded the company this year for its commitment to invest in U, given the current landscape
Last week, Apple announced a $500 million deal with MP Materials to beef up manufacturing of rare earth materials in the U
AmazonAmazon CEO Andy Jassy speaks at a company event in New York on Feb
However, Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAmazon's second-quarter results will offer fresh clues into how the e-commerce and cloud computing giant is navigating tariff uncertainty
Last quarter, Amazon forecast operating fit for the current period that was weaker than Wall Street anticipated
It called out "tariffs and trade policies," currency fluctuations and "recessionary fears" as factors that may affect its results
Conversely, Investors were spooked by the guidance, despite reassurances from CEO Andy Jassy that Amazon is well positioned to weather the levies and could even take from competitors, given its ability to offer low prices
Amazon said the company and many of its third-party sellers stocked up on inventory in anticipation of the tariffs
But once that inventory is sold through, new shipments from China and other countries could face higher import costs
Nevertheless, Cloud growth is another major point of focus for Amazon holders
Revenue at AWS grew 17% in the first quarter, which was below analysts' estimates and the slowest growth in a year
Analysts are jecting the same year-over-year growth for the second period
Jassy said in May that the cloud was constrained by data center capacity limits around power and components AI chips
Moreover, "As fast as we actually put the capacity in, it's being consumed," Jassy told investors
He added that the company expects some of the constraints to ease up "as the year ceeds, given the current landscape
Meanwhile, "Amazon s are up 4% this year, in today's market environment. — CNBC's Jennifer Elias, Annie Palmer, Jordan Novet, Jonathan Vanian, Lora Kolodny and Kif Leswing contributed reporting
WATCH: Google might be in the lead in their AI capabilitywatch now5:1505:15Google might be in the lead in their AI capability, says Constellation's Ray WangSquawk Box.
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