Investment
CNBC

U.S. payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, more than expected

July 3, 2025
03:22 PM
5 min read
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investmenteconomystockstradinghealthcaregovernmentmarket cyclesseasonal analysis

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Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 110,000 in June. The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 4.3%.

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investment

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Published

July 3, 2025

03:22 PM

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CNBC

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investmenteconomystockstradinghealthcaregovernmentmarket cyclesseasonal analysis

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May

Market pricing shifted strongly ing the payrolls report, with traders all but taking the chance of a July rate cut off the table

Government employment posted a large gain, leading all with an increase of 73,000 due to solid boosts in state and local hiring

Watch now4:5804:58Nonfarm payrolls rise 147,000 in the monthSquawk BoxJob growth ved better than expected in June, boosted by government hiring, as the labor market showed surprising resilience and ly took a July interest rate cut off the table

Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000 and just above the upwardly revised 144,000 in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday

April's tally also saw a small upward revision, now at 158,000 ing an 11,000 increase

The unemployment rate fell to 4. 1%, the lowest since February and against a forecast for a slight increase to 4

A more encompassing rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons edged down to 7. 7%, the lowest since January

Though the jobless rates fell, it was due largely to a decrease in those working or looking for jobs

The labor force participation rate dropped to 62. 3%, its lowest level since late 2022, owing to an increase of 329,000 of those not counted in the labor force

The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a smaller employment gain of just 93,000

The ranks of those who had not looked for a job in the past four weeks swelled by 234,000 to 1

Stocks rose ing the report while Treasury yields increased sharply in a trading session that will end early ahead of the Independence Day holiday Friday in the U

The July gain was almost exactly in line with the year-to-date average of 146,000. "The solid June jobs report confirms that the labor market remains resolute and slams the door shut on a July rate cut," said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at Bridge Investments. "Today's good news should be treated as such by the, with equities rising despite the accompanying pickup in interest rates. "Along with the solid payroll gains and fall in the unemployment rate, average hourly earnings increased 0. 2% for the month and 3. 7% from a year ago, indicating little upward pressure on wage-related inflation

The average work week moved slightly lower to 34

Government employment posted a large gain, leading all with an increase of 73,000 due to solid boosts in state and local hiring, particularly in education-related jobs, which rose by 40,000

Federal government, which is still feeling the impact of cuts from Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency, lost 7,000

In addition, health care again was strong, adding roughly 39,000, while social assistance contributed 19,000

Construction saw an increase of 15,000, and manufacturing lost 7,000

Most other sectors showed little change. "The US job market continues to largely stand tall and sturdy, even as headwinds mount — but it may be a tent increasingly held up by fewer poles," wrote Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab. "The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare & social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will ly ring hollow. "The payrolls report comes with an intensified focus on where the Fed heads with monetary policy as signs increasingly appear of a slowing labor market while President Donald Trump's tariffs thus far have duced a muted impact on inflation

In related news, the Labor Department also reported Thursday that initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 28 fell to 233,000, a decline of 4,000 and below the estimate for 240,000

Trump has demanded the Fed lower its benchmark interest rate, which it has kept steady in a range between 4. 5% since December

Along with that, the president on Wednesday upped the stakes, saying in a Truth Social post that Fed Chair Jerome Powell "should resign immediately. "For his part, Powell has kept a cautious tone on policy

In an appearance Tuesday, the central bank leader said that while every meeting is on the table for a rate cut, the strength of the U

Economy is affording time to evaluate the incoming data

Market pricing shifted strongly ing the payrolls report, with traders all but taking the chance of a July rate cut off the table

Odds for a July move fell to 4. 7%, down from 23. 8% on Wednesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch

The market continues to see the next reduction not coming until September and also reversed expectations for three total cuts this year, with the lihood now reduced to two

There had been some speculation ahead of the report that a weak number was possible, with private payrolls service ADP on Wednesday reporting a loss of 33,000

However, the BLS report showed a gain of 74,000 in that category

Those getting jobs tilted strongly to full-time positions, which increased by 437,000

Part-time workers fell by 367,000.