US inflation to rise as higher tariffs feed through
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The core consumer price index rose 0.3% in July, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In June, core CPI edged up 0.2%.
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August 10, 2025
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Fortune
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Economy·InflationUS inflation to rise as higher tariffs throughBy Vince GolleBy Craig StirlingBy BloombergBy Vince GolleBy Craig StirlingBy Bloomberg The core consumer price index rose 0.3% in July, according to the median jection in a Bloomberg survey of economists
Jeff Gritchen—MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty ImagesUS consumers bably experienced a slight pickup in underlying inflation in July as retailers gradually raised prices on a variety of items subject to higher import duties
The core consumer price index, regarded as a measure of underlying inflation because it strips out volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% in July, according to the median jection in a Bloomberg survey of economists
In June, core CPI edged up 0.2% from the prior month
While that would be the biggest gain since the start of the year, Americans — at least those who drive — are finding some offset at the gas pump
Cheaper gasoline bably helped limit the overall CPI to a 0.2% gain, the government’s report on Tuesday is expected to show
Higher US tariffs have started to through to consumers in such as household furnishings and recreational goods
But a separate measure of core services inflation has so far remained tame
Still, many economists expect higher import duties to keep gradually ing through
That’s the dilemma for Federal Reserve officials who’ve kept interest rates unchanged this year in hopes of gaining clarity on whether tariffs will lead to sustained inflation
At the same time, the labor market — the other half of their dual policy mandate — is showing signs of losing momentum
As concerns build the durability of the job market, many companies are exploring ways to limit the tariff pass-through to price-sensitive consumers
Economists expect government figures on Friday to show a solid gain in July retail sales as incentives helped fuel vehicle purchases and Amazon’s Prime Day sale drew in online shoppers
Excluding auto dealers, economists have penciled in a more moderate advance
And when adjusted for price changes, the retail sales figures will ly underscore an uninspiring consumer spending environment
Among other economic data in the coming week, a Fed report is ly to show stagnant factory output as manufacturers contend with evolving tariffs policy
A preliminary trade truce between the US and China is set to expire on Tuesday, but a move to extend the detente is still possible
The Bank of Canada will release a summary of the deliberations that led it to hold its benchmark rate at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting; it also left the door open to more cuts if the economy weakens and inflation is contained. sales data for July will reveal whether sales gains continued for a third straight month
Elsewhere, several Chinese data releases, gross domestic duct readings for the UK and Switzerland, and a possible rate cut in Australia are among the highlights
Asia Asia has a hectic data calendar, led by a wave of Chinese indicators, GDP reports from several economies, and a closely-watched rate decision in Australia
The week will see credit numbers from China, which will be assessed for signs that policymakers’ efforts to revive economic growth are beginning to bear fruit
Money supply data will offer a complementary signal on underlying liquidity conditions
On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia is poised to lower policy rates for a third time this year after second-quarter inflation cooled further
A gauge of Australian confidence due the same day will offer a timely read on sentiment heading into the second half
Wednesday brings Australia’s wages data, ed by the employment report on Thursday
India reports CPI data on Tuesday, which will ly show prices cooled further in July from a year ago
Wholesale prices on Thursday, and will indicate whether cost pass-through remains muted
Trade figures during the week will show how strong India’s external sector was before Trump imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over its purchases of Russian energy, taking the total import levy to 50%
On Wednesday, Thailand’s central bank is expected to cut rates amid subdued price pressures and weak economic growth
Thailand’s King Maha Vajiralongkorn has endorsed the appointment of Vitai Ratanakorn as the nation’s new central bank governor, capping a monthslong selection cess that has been overshadowed by concerns over government attempts to erode the autonomy of the Bank of Thailand
Vitai is set to take office from Oct. 1, according to a Royal Gazette notification issued Sunday
Also on Wednesday, New Zealand releases retail card spending data, South Korea publishes its unemployment rate for July, and Japan releases its ducer price index — a gauge of wholesale inflation
China’s big reveal comes on Friday, with a suite of July activity data including industrial duction, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and jobless figures
Also on Friday, Japan publishes preliminary estimates of second-quarter GDP, with forecasts suggesting the country ly avoided a recession
Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan and Hong Kong are among the other economies reporting GDP, viding a broader look at growth momentum and external balances across the region
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia Europe, Middle East, Africa The UK will take minence again with some key data reports. ing Thursday’s Bank of England rate cut, after which officials said they’re on “alert” for second-round effects from a spike in inflation, wage data will be released on Tuesday
Economists anticipate a slight slowdown in pay growth for private-sector workers
Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP is expected to show economic momentum slowing sharply after a growth spurt at the start of the year, meshing with the BOE’s view that the economy has started to show more slack
Much of continental Europe will be on holiday on Friday, and data may be sparse too
Germany’s ZEW index of investor sentiment comes on Tuesday
In the wider euro region, a second take of GDP, along with June industrial duction, will be published on Thursday
In Switzerland, still reeling from Trump’s imposition of a 39% tariff, initial data on Friday may reveal that the economy suddenly contracted in the second quarter, even before that trade shock hit
Investors will also be watching for any on Bern and Washington inching toward a trade deal after all
Norwegian inflation is set for Monday
Three days later, the central bank in Oslo is ly to keep its rate at 4.25% after its first post-pandemic cut in June surprised investors
Recent data included weaker retail sales, rising unemployment and gloomier industrial sentiment, though price pressures have also appeared to be stickier
Most economists expect two more quarter-point cuts in Norway this year, in September and December
Some monetary decisions are also due in Africa: On Tuesday, Kenya’s central bank will bably adjust the key rate lower for a seventh straight time, from 9.75%, with inflation expected to remain below the 5% midpoint of its target range in the near term
Uganda’s policymakers will bably leave their rate at 9.75% to gauge the impact of US tariffs on inflation and keep local debt and swaps attractive to investors
On Wednesday, the Bank of Zambia may cut borrowing costs
Its real interest rate is the highest in six years, with the spread between the policy benchmark and the annual inflation rate at 1.5 percentage points in July after price growth eased
Namibia may also lower its rate, to 6.5% from 6.75%, in a bid to boost the economy
Inflation there is near the floor of its 3% to 6% target range
In Russia on Wednesday, analysts expect inflation to have fallen below 9% in July from 9.4% a month earlier
Turkish central bank Governor Fatih Karahan will present the 2025 inflation outlook at a quarterly meeting on Thursday
And finally, on Friday in Israel, inflation is expected to have eased to 3.1% in July from 3.3% a month earlier
For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA Latin America Brazil’s central bank gets the week rolling with its Focus survey of market expectations
Analysts have been slowly trimming their consumer price forecasts, but all estimates remain well above the 3% target through the forecast horizon
Data on Tuesday should show that Brazilian consumer prices for July ticked down ever so slightly from June’s 5.35% , substantiating the central bank’s hawkish rate hold at 15% on July 30
Chile’s central bank on Wednesday publishes the minutes of its July 29 meeting, at which policymakers dered their first cut of 2025, voting unanimously for a quarter-point reduction, to 4.75%
The post-decision statement maintained guidance for more monetary easing in the coming quarters due to a weak labor market and slowing inflation
Also due on Wednesday is Argentina’s July consumer prices report
Analysts surveyed by the central bank expect a slight uptick in the monthly reading from June’s 1.6%, with the year-on-year figure drifting lower from 39.4%
Inflation in Peru’s megacity capital of Lima has been below the 2% midpoint of the central bank’s target range all year, but the early consensus expects the central bank to keep its key rate unchanged at 4.5% for a third straight meeting
Colombia is all but certain to have posted an eighth straight quarter of growth in the three months through June
The nation’s central bank, which in June highlighted that the economy had gained momentum, is forecasting a 2.7% rise in GDP this year and 2.9% in 2026, up from 1.7% in 2024
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