SportsMoneyUFC 317 Fight Card: Odds, Lines, p Bets, Predictions And PicksByTrent Reinsmith, Contributor. Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights.
Trent Reinsmith is a Baltimore-based writer who covers MMA and hockey. AuthorJun 27, 2025, 12:20pm EDTLAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 26: (L-R) Opponents Ilia Topuria of Germany and Charles Oira of Brazil.
More face off during the UFC 317 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on June 26, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC Saturday’s UFC 317 fight card features two title fights at the top of the marquee.
In the main event, two former champs battle for the vacant UFC lightweight belt.
In that contest, former UFC featherweight champion Ilia Topuria tangles with former UFC lightweight titleholder Charles Oira.
In the UFC 317 co-main event, UFC flyweight kingpin Alexandre Pantoja faces Kai Kara-France. Also on the main card is a high-stakes 125-pound contest between Brandon Royval and Joshua Van.
We look at the betting odds, line movement, potential p bets, and picks for the UFC 317 main card. UFC 317 takes place on Saturday, June 28, from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The pay-per-view card is the focal point of the UFC’s 2025 International Fight Week. The UFC 317 PPV fight card s on ESPN+ ing prelims on ESPN and early prelims on UFC Fight Pass.
ForbesUFC Announces First Nine Fights For UFC 318 Fight CardBy Trent Reinsmith UFC 317 Fight Card Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Ilia Topuria Vs.
Charles OiraLAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 26: (L-R) Opponents Ilia Topuria of Germany and Charles Oira of Brazil.
More face off during the UFC 317 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on June 26, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC Ilia Topuria (16-0) is a former Cage Warriors champion. He joined the UFC in 2020 with a 9-0 record. It did not take him long to make a name for himself.
He was ranked No. 14 in the featherweight division after three UFC bouts at 145 pounds and one contest in the 155-pound division. Three of those scraps with Topuria winning via knockout.
MORE FOR YOU In his first fight as a ranked featherweight, Topuria dispatched Bryce Mitchell via submission in the second round, earned his first “Performance of the Night” bonus and moved to No.
9 in the rankings. A matchup with No. 5 ranked Josh Emmett ed the Mitchell win. Topuria picked up a decision in a “Fight of the Night” scrap.
Topuria’s next fight, saw him face Alexander Volkanovski for the UFC featherweight title at UFC 298. Topuria entered that bout as the No. 3 ranked featherweight.
He left as the champion after knocking out Volkanovski in the second stanza.
In his first defense of the UFC featherweight crown, Topuria made history, becoming the first fighter to finish former 145-pound champion Max Holloway via strikes, knocking out the ex-champion in the third round of their UFC 308 meeting in October 2024.
When Topuria decided to move to lightweight and give up his featherweight title, he vowed to sit until he got a 155-pound title shot. That fight takes place at UFC 317.
Topuria has a 16-0 record with eight of those wins coming under the UFC banner. Charles Oira (35-10-0-1) has been fighting with the UFC since 2010.
He won the vacant lightweight title with his win over Chandler and def the title once, beating Dustin Poirier.
He was booked to face Justin Gaethje in his second title defense, but Oira missed weight for that fight, which he won by submission, losing the title on the scale.
Oira had a chance to regain the belt in October 2022, but Islam Makhachev submitted him and claimed the vacant belt.
Since that loss, Oira is 1-1, beating Beneil Dariush by TKO in June 2023 and losing to Arman Tsarukyan via split decision in April of this year.
Oira is coming off a November 2024 decision win over Michael Chandler. Oira is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.
When the betting odds opened for this fight, Topuria was a -425 favorite over the +310 Oira. Today, Topuria is listed at -450, while Oira is the +350 underdog.
The betting public seems to be invested in an upset, as Oira has 90 percent of the bets and 63 percent of the handle.
ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - OCTOBER 26: Ilia Topuria of Spain reacts after a knockout victory.
More against Max Holloway in the UFC featherweight championship fight during the UFC 308 event at Etihad Arena on October 26, 2024 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
(Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC Oira has had a fantastic UFC career, and that career is far from over. However, he is part of the “old guard” of the UFC’s lightweight division.
That group of fighters includes the men Oira has beaten as of late: Michael Chandler, Beneil Dariush, Justin Gaethje, and Dustin Poirier.
The fighters who are not in that group are the men who have defeated Oira, competitors such as Arman Tsarukyan and Islam Makhachev. Ilia Topuria is part of that new generation.
If Oira apaches this fight he has been competing as of late, he will be in trouble.
That means Oira cannot opt to strike in range against Topuria, who is a powerful striker with good footwork and finishing skills. Oira must fight at distance and keep Topuria from getting in close.
Oira has not shown a willingness to fight that type of battle. The betting pick is for Ilia Topuria to beat Charles Oira to win the UFC lightweight title by knockout.
UFC 317 Fight Card Co-Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions - Alexandre Pantoja Vs.
Kai Kara-FranceLAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 26: (L-R) Opponents Alexandre Pantoja of Brazil and Kai Kara-France of New.
More Zealand face off during the UFC 317 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on June 26, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC Alexandre Pantoja (29-5) is on a seven-fight winning streak heading into UFC 317.
The 35-year-old Brazilian made his UFC debut in July 2017 with a split-decision win over Eric Shelton.
Pantoja’s career had its ups and downs over the next three years, where he went 5-3, but he has not lost since he dropped a decision to Askar Askarov in July 2020.
Pantoja won the UFC flyweight title in July 2023 on the heels of two “Performance of the Night” submission wins. Pantoja secured the 125-pound title with a split decision win over Brandon Moreno.
Since that victory, Pantoja has def his three times, beating Brandon Royval in December 2023 and Steve Erceg in May 2024. Both fights in decision victories.
Pantoja picked up his 19th career finish in his third title defense, submitting Kai Asakura at UFC 310 in December 2024.
Kai Kara-France (25-11-0-1) was 17-7-0-1 when he got the call from the UFC in 2019. In his first fight with the motion, the New Zealander faced a short-notice opponent in Elias Garcia.
The two won “Fight of the Night” honors for their efforts, with Kara-France picking up the decision win. Kara-France ed that victory with two more wins on the judge’s scorecards.
Then, in December 2019, he faced future champion Brandon Moreno on the early prelims of the UFC 245 pay-per-view card. Moreno won that bout by decision. Kara-France went 1-1 in his next two outings.
He then tore off three straight wins between March 2021 and March 2022 and found himself as the No. 2 ranked fighter in the division. In his next outing, he faced Moreno, who was ranked No.
1, in the co-main event of UFC 277. At stake was the interim UFC flyweight title. Moreno won that contest by TKO in the third round.
Kara-France ed that setback with a split-decision loss to Amir Albazi in June 2023.
Kara-France was booked to face Manel Kape in September 2023, but a concussion during training camp prevented Kara-France from competing on that card, UFC 293.
The 32-year-old would not return to action until August 2024, where he earned a first-round TKO win, and a “Performance of the Night” bonus against Steve Erceg. Kara-France enters UFC 317 as the No.
4 fighter in the official UFC flyweight rankings. The betting odds for the UFC 317 co-main event have held steady. Pantoja opened as the -250 favorite, while Kara-France came in at +200.
The line is the same today. Kara-France has picked up 67 percent of the bets and 53 percent of the money.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 07: Alexandre Pantoja of Brazil reacts to his win against Kai Asakura.
More of Japan in the UFC flyweight championship bout during the UFC 310 event at T-Mobile Arena on December 07, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC We’re looking at a grappler vs. Striking battle in the co-main event of UFC 317. The champ is the grappler and the challenger is the striker.
These two fought in an exhibition match in 2016 during The Ultimate Fighter. Pantoja won that two-round affair by decision. Don’t put much stock in that contest.
Look for Pantoja to move forward and strike with Kara-France early, but then look for the takedown where he will be able to drag Kara-France into deep water and outwork him on the mat.
Yes, Kara-France has a punchers chance, but not much more than that. The betting pick is for Pantoja to beat Kara-France by decision to retain the UFC flyweight title at UFC 317.
UFC 317 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions: Beneil Dariush Vs. Renato MoicanoLAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 26: (L-R) Opponents Beneil Dariush of Iran and Renato Moicano of Brazil.
More face off during the UFC 317 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on June 26, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) joined the UFC in January 2014. At the time, Dariush sported a 6-0 record with five stoppage wins.
In his motional debut, Dariush scored a first-round submission win over Charlie Brenneman. Three months later Dariush tasted defeat for the first time, suffering a knockout loss to Ramsey Nijem.
Dariush bounced back from that loss with five wins in a row, besting the s of Daron Cruickshank (submission), Jim Miller (decision) and Michael Johnson (decision).
A submission loss to Michael Chiesa that winning streak in April 2016.
Wins over James Vick (knockout) and Rashid Magomedov put Dariush’s record at 14-2, but a rough patch between March 2017 and March 2018 left Dariush at 14-4-1 as he lost to Edson Barboza (knockout), fought to a draw with Evan Dunham and was knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
Dariush rebounded in a big way from that winless run, picking up eight straight victories between November 2018 and October 2022.
The most significant win during Dariush’s impressive run was his UFC 280 decision win over Mateusz Gamrot. ing that victory, Dariush found himself as the No.
4 ranked fighter in the official UFC rankings and matched up against former UFC 155-pound champion Charles Oira at UFC 289. Oira entered the contest as the No.
1 ranked fighter in the motion’s lightweight division. Oira won the fight via TKO at 4:10 of the first round, ending Dariush’s winning streak.
A December 2023 knockout loss to Arman Tsarukyan put Dariush on the first losing skid of his career. He has not competed since the loss to Tsarukyan.
Renato Moicano (20-6-1) was riding the first four-fight winning streak of his UFC career when he stepped in to face Makhachev at UFC 311.
The 36-year-old opened his run with the motion at 3-0 record between 2014 and 2017. Since then, Moicano has been up and down.
He ed that by going 5-5 over his next 10 outings before beginning his current unbeaten streak in 2022. Moicano is 7-1 dating back to June 2021.
His only loss prior to his UFC 311 setback to Makhachev was a March 2022 unanimous decision defeat to former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos in a 160-pound catchweight battle.
In April 2024, Moicano picked up his first knockout as a member of the UFC, decking Jalin Turner on the early prelims of the UFC 300 fight card.
Then, in September 2024, the UFC tapped Moicano for the first main event of his UFC career against Benoît Saint Denis.
That fight after the second round after Moicano left Saint Denis’ face bloody and swollen.
The damage Moicano put on his opponent forced the doctor to wave off the fight as Saint Denis’ right eye was nearly swollen shut. Moicano enters UFC 317 as the No.
10 fighter in the UFC’s 155-pound weight class. When the betting odds opened for this fight, Moicano was a -155 favorite over the +130 Dariush.
Today, the bout is a pick 'em with Moicano at -115, and Dariush at -105. The bettors are looking for a Dariush win. He has 57 percent of the bets, and 79 percent of the money in his favor.
AUSTIN, TEXAS - DECEMBER 02: Beneil Dariush of Iran prepares before his lightweight fight against.
More Arman Tsarukyan of Georgia during the UFC Fight Night event at Moody Center on December 02, 2023 in Austin, Texas.
(Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)Zuffa LLC via Getty Images We all know that in MMA a fighter is only as good as their most recent outing, or at least that’s the logic that many .
Had this fight been booked before Dariush’s two recent losses, he would have ly have been the betting favorite. After all, he is the more skilled competitor in this bout.
However, Dariush has lost two straight and Moicano, who might have been considered more of a journeyman than a legit lightweight contender before the winning streak that earned him a last-minute title fight, was on the best run of his UFC career before UFC 311.
The betting pick is for Beneil Dariush to use his better overall MMA skills to pick up a decision win and end his losing skid.
UFC 317 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions: Brandon Royval Vs. Joshua VanLAS VEGAS, NEVADA - JUNE 26: (L-R) Opponents Brandon Royval and Joshua Van of Myanmar face off.
More during the UFC 317 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on June 26, 2025 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
(Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)Zuffa LLC Brandon Royval (17-7) joined the UFC in 2020 with a 10-4 record.
At the time, Royval was coming off a November 2019 submission win over Nate Williams, earning him the LFA flyweight title.
Royval did not get an easy matchup in his first UFC bout, as he was booked against former UFC flyweight title challenger Tim Elliott in a slight upset. The matchup won “Fight of the Night” honors.
Royval ed that win with another stoppage in another “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning scrap, submitting the favored Kai Kara-France in the second round of their September 2020 matchup.
Royval 2020 with a TKO loss to Brandon Moreno and began 2021 with a submission setback to Alexandre Pantoja. Both those men would go on to hold the UFC flyweight title.
Bouncing back from those losses, Royval went on a three-fight winning streak, picking up another tw.