North America·demographicsTrump says he wants a ‘baby boom,’ but the CBO sees deaths surpassing births in 2031 and a 320,000 hole in the population from deportationsBy Stephen GrovesBy The Associated PressBy Stephen GrovesBy The Associated Press President Donald Trump.Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesPresident Donald Trump’s plans for mass deportations and other hardline immigration measures will result in roughly 320,000 people removed from the United States over the next 10 years, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday in a report that also jected that the U.S.
population will grow more slowly than it had previously jected.
Trump’s tax and spending law, passed by Congress and signed in July, included roughly $150 billion to ramp up his mass deportation agenda over the next four years.
This includes funding for everything from an extension of the United States’ southern border wall to detention centers and thousands of additional law enforcement staff.
The CBO found that 290,000 immigrants could be removed through those measures, and an additional 30,000 people could leave the U.S. voluntarily.
Coupled with a lower fertility rate in the U.S., the reduction in immigration means that the CBO’s jection of the U.S.
population will be 4.5 million people lower by 2035 than the nonpartisan office had jected in January. It cautioned that its population jections are “highly uncertain,” but estimated that the U.S.
will have 367 million people in 2055. Lower immigration to the U.S. could have implications for the nation’s economy and the government’s budget.
The report did not directly address those issues, but it noted that the jected population would have “fewer people ages 25 to 54 — the age group that is most ly to participate in the labor force — than the agency previously jected.” Democrats in Congress have been warning that mass deportations could harm the U.S.
economy and lead to higher prices on groceries and other goods. In the White House, Trump has said he wants to see a “baby boom” in the U.S.
and his administration has bandied ideas for encouraging Americans to have more children. But the CBO found no indication that would happen.
“Deaths are jected to exceed births in 2031, two years earlier than previously jected,” it noted. Fortune Global Forum returns Oct. 26–27, 2025 in Riyadh.
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