Advanced ➔ Results Mark HulbertThere’s a 68% chance that stocks will rise by year-end. Do you feel lucky. Stocks are ly to be higher on Dec.
31 — and it has nothing to do with or the economyLast d: July 2, 2025 at 4:11 p. ETFirst Published: July 2, 2025 at 12:31 p.
ETResizeListen(5 min) Photo: Getty Images/iStockphotoThere’s a 2-out-of-3 chance that the U. Stock market will be higher on Dec. 31 than it is today.
That’s true for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. You may decide that a 1-out-of-3 chance of losing money is too high, and therefore choose to stay out of stocks.
But you’re kidding yourself if you think the odds will ever be any better. The bability of the market rising over any six-month period is remarkably impervious to prevailing market conditions.
The Author Mark HulbertMark Hulbert is a columnist for MarketWatch. His Hulbert Ratings service tracks investment s that pay a flat fee to be audited.
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