Advanced ➔ Results Lawrence G.
McMillanOpinion: The stock market now is ly overbought — but overbought does not mean ‘sell’Apple s and big bank earnings are in focus as stocks hit another recordLast d: July 10, 2025 at 4:53 p.
ETFirst Published: July 10, 2025 at 3:24 p. ETResizeListen(15 min) Photo: Getty Images/iStockphotoThe S&P 500 index SPX has continued to rise, registering new all-time highs again this past week.
A minor gap has been filled on the SPX chart, which is a positive thing. There are support levels at 6,060, 6,020 and 5,920.
Any move below 5,920 would be bearish, but I am not expecting that anytime soon.
This upside breakout to new highs seems much stronger in terms of market internals than the false breakouts that occurred this past February.
When SPX is at all-time highs, there is no formal overhead resistance, but the “modified Bollinger bands” (mBB) can be useful.
Currently, SPX is trading above the +4σ band, which is an overbought condition, but not necessarily a sell signal.
If SPX closes below the +3σ band, that would generate what we call a “classic” mBB sell signal. We don’t trade those, for they have ven to be too subject to whipsaws.
However, if there is further downside action after the “classic” sell signal is generated, then a McMillan volatility band (MVB) sell signal could be generated.
There is no guarantee that current market conditions will actually lead to an MVB sell signal. The Author Lawrence G. McMillanLawrence G.
McMillan is a columnist for MarketWatch and editor of the "MarketWatch Options Trader". He is president of McMillan Analysis, an investment and commodity-trading adviser.
Show Conversation (0)Back To TopCopyright © 2025 MarketWatch, Inc. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use DPrivacy NoticeCookie Notice MarketWatchCustomer Center UsNewsroom RosterVirtual Stock ExchangeMarketWatch GuidesCopyright PolicyManage NotificationsCancel My SubscriptionCompanyDow JonesCode of ConductCorrectionsRes & LicensingDigital Self ServiceYour Ad ChoicesCorporate SubscriptionsAccessibilityDow Jones NetworkThe Wall Street JournalBarron'sInvestor's DailyBigChartsFinancial News Londonrealtor.
ComMansion GlobalDow Jones Smart MoneyIntraday Data vided by FACTSET and subject to terms of use. Historical and current end-of-day data vided by FACTSET. All quotes are in local exchange time.
Real-time last sale data for U. Stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only. Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.