The stock market now is clearly overbought — but overbought does not mean ‘sell’
Key Takeaways
Apple shares and big bank earnings are in focus as stocks hit another record.
Article Overview
Quick insights and key information
2 min read
Estimated completion
investment
Article classification
July 10, 2025
08:53 PM
MarketWatch
Original publisher
Advanced ➔ Results Lawrence G
McMillanOpinion: The stock market now is ly overbought — but overbought does not mean ‘sell’Apple s and big bank earnings are in focus as stocks hit another recordLast d: July 10, 2025 at 4:53 p
ETFirst Published: July 10, 2025 at 3:24 p
ETResizeListen(15 min) Photo: Getty Images/iStockphotoThe S&P 500 index SPX has continued to rise, registering new all-time highs again this past week
A minor gap has been filled on the SPX chart, which is a positive thing
There are support levels at 6,060, 6,020 and 5,920
Any move below 5,920 would be bearish, but I am not expecting that anytime soon
This upside breakout to new highs seems much stronger in terms of market internals than the false breakouts that occurred this past February
When SPX is at all-time highs, there is no formal overhead resistance, but the “modified Bollinger bands” (mBB) can be useful
Currently, SPX is trading above the +4σ band, which is an overbought condition, but not necessarily a sell signal
If SPX closes below the +3σ band, that would generate what we call a “classic” mBB sell signal
We don’t trade those, for they have ven to be too subject to whipsaws
However, if there is further downside action after the “classic” sell signal is generated, then a McMillan volatility band (MVB) sell signal could be generated
There is no guarantee that current market conditions will actually lead to an MVB sell signal
The Author Lawrence G
McMillan is a columnist for MarketWatch and editor of the "MarketWatch Options Trader"
He is president of McMillan Analysis, an investment and commodity-trading adviser
Show Conversation (0)Back To TopCopyright © 2025 MarketWatch, Inc
Terms of Use DPrivacy NoticeCookie Notice MarketWatchCustomer Center UsNewsroom RosterVirtual Stock ExchangeMarketWatch GuidesCopyright PolicyManage NotificationsCancel My SubscriptionCompanyDow JonesCode of ConductCorrectionsRes & LicensingDigital Self ServiceYour Ad ChoicesCorporate SubscriptionsAccessibilityDow Jones NetworkThe Wall Street JournalBarron'sInvestor's DailyBigChartsFinancial News Londonrealtor
ComMansion GlobalDow Jones Smart MoneyIntraday Data vided by FACTSET and subject to terms of use
Historical and current end-of-day data vided by FACTSET
All quotes are in local exchange time
Real-time last sale data for U
Stock quotes reflect trades reported through Nasdaq only
Intraday data delayed at least 15 minutes or per exchange requirements.
Related Articles
More insights from FinancialBooklet