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The S&P 500 Just Made a Striking Move That Signals Something Big Ahead.

July 8, 2025
07:10 AM
4 min read
AI Enhanced
investmenteconomystockstechnologyconsumer discretionarymarket cyclesseasonal analysisgeopolitical

Key Takeaways

The S&P 500 index (^GSPC -0. 79%) brought investors reason to scowl and reason to cheer in the first half of the year. The index slid earlier in the half, and...

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4 min read

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investment

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Published

July 8, 2025

07:10 AM

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The Motley Fool

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Key Topics
investmenteconomystockstechnologyconsumer discretionarymarket cyclesseasonal analysisgeopolitical

The S&P 500 index (^GSPC -0. 79%) brought investors reason to scowl and reason to cheer in the first half of the year

The index slid earlier in the half, and even temporarily reached into a bear market, amid concerns that President Trump's import tariff plan would push prices higher and weigh on the economy

Then, weeks later, trade talks and initial agreements mpted optimism that tariffs wouldn't be as high as originally expected -- and that lifted investors' biggest fears

As a result, the S&P 500 went on to soar, finishing the first half up 5. 5% and recently reaching a new record

And in recent days, the index went even a step further, making a striking move that signals one particular thing, according to history

Let's zoom in and find out what may be next

Image source: Getty Images

Stocks are soaring As mentioned, recent weeks have been bright for the benchmark and for investors

The bull market is going strong, and growth stocks that fell earlier in the year now are charging back and leading the indexes higher

For example, market bellwether Nvidia, which lost nearly 30% in the first three months of the year, the first half with a 17% gain

And many other stocks ed, rebounding from lows and going on to der positive returns

Investors today are optimistic that trade deals will be fair, with reasonable tariff levels, and won't disrupt economic growth

This is fantastic news for all stocks, but it's particularly good news for growth players that rely on a strong economy to expand and develop

So, it's not surprising that they've roared higher in recent times

Now, let's consider the move the S&P 500 made a few days ago

The index's 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming what's known as a "golden cross" in nical analysis

When this happens -- a short-term moving average crossing over a long term one – it's considered a bullish sign for the market, suggesting more gains may be ahead. ^SPX data by YCharts What's happened 80% of the time To add some historical evidence to this, I looked to data from Carson Investment Re, showing that since 1950, the index has dered a higher return 80% of the time in the year to a golden cross -- and it's generated a 13% median return

Data source: Carson Investment Re

So, if history is right, the S&P 500 could be on track for something big -- posting double-digit returns this year

This would be the index's third straight year of double-digit gains, after increasing 23% in 2024 and 24% in 2023

Of course, it's important to keep in mind a couple of things

Nical analysis focuses on market data to identify trends and then make predictions based on those trends

Sometimes this results in an accurate prediction, but that's not always the case

The weakness of this method is it ignores fundamentals, such as corporate earnings or economic and political news

These and other concrete factors could greatly impact stock movement or the movement of an index

On top of this, general historical trends also don't always repeat themselves

They the same weakness with nical analysis: They don't include fundamentals or news that may offer investors a reason to buy or sell

Why look at nical analysis

So now you may wonder: Why even look at nical analysis or history in general

That's because they do offer us some clues as to what's possible if other factors don't interfere

So, they might be used as one element to add to others

For example, today, a look at the golden cross and at the current economic and earnings situation could help us decide whether we should take a bullish or bearish view of the market in the months to come -- however, it's important to keep in mind that any new element could change the picture

That said, all of the elements we have as of now offer us reason to be optimistic the S&P 500 this year, and the best news of all is this: Regardless of the index's short-term performance, it's always gone on to advance over time, and that means it's a great idea to bet on top quality stocks and hold on for the long term

Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned

The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia

The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.