The 4 Most Dangerous Words for Bitcoin Investors: "This Time It's Different"
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Famed investor John Templeton once remarked, "The four most dangerous words in are: This time it's different. " It's an acknowledgment that tends to certain timeless rules, and that investors...
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cryptocurrency
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July 10, 2025
08:25 AM
The Motley Fool
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Famed investor John Templeton once remarked, "The four most dangerous words in are: This time it's different. " It's an acknowledgment that tends to certain timeless rules, and that investors often become too bullish the spects of any high-flying asset
That's what has me so concerned Bitcoin (BTC 4. 73%) right now
There's a growing sense that Bitcoin has somehow outgrown its historical boom-and-bust cycle, and that severe market corrections are now a relic of the past
But is that really the case
The four-year Bitcoin cycle Long-time Bitcoin investors recognize that the world's most cryptocurrency tends to four-year cycles
Each cycle is further subdivided into four distinct phases
There's a period of accumulation, ed by a period of rapid growth, a bubble, and then a crash
The timing of this cycle might seem arbitrary, except for the fact that Bitcoin has a halving event every four years
This halving, which cuts in half the rate of new Bitcoin creation, is what leads to the period of rapid growth
If you know the date of the halving, you can basically add 12 to 18 months, and that's when the "bubble" phase should be coming to an end
The last Bitcoin halving took place on April 19, 2024
If history is any guide, the current period of Bitcoin growth should be coming to an end sometime around October of this year
If we're lucky, the price of Bitcoin could hold its ground until January 2026
You can see where I'm going with this -- we're "due" for a market correction
If Bitcoin s its historical pattern, then the four-year cycle should be wrapping up relatively soon
And that means a significant market correction (or something worse) could be incoming. "This time it's different" The typical response to this, of course, is: "This time it's different. " This is the first cycle, for example, when the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have existed
This is the first cycle when a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has existed
This is the first cycle when the Bitcoin treasury company model has been in vogue
This is the first cycle when the U
Government is supporting -Bitcoin policies
This is the first cycle when risk-averse institutional investors such as pension funds are buying Bitcoin
Image source: Getty Images
You could bably list several more factors that are "different" this time around
But think back to what Templeton said decades ago
There are certain timeless truths the financial that you simply can't ignore
And one of those is that financial assets can't defy gravity for long
What goes up must come down
The Bitcoin bulls will reject this line of thinking, of course
Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy (MSTR 1. 53%), recently told Bloomberg TV in an interview: "Crypto winter is not coming back
We're past that phase. " Saylor discounts the chances of any significant pullback, and is confident that Bitcoin will continue to soar in value
Saylor's new price target for Bitcoin is a head-spinning $21 million per coin
Ignore the history of Bitcoin at your own peril For any investors new to Bitcoin, I would highly recommend familiarizing yourself with the four-year Bitcoin cycle
Take a good, hard look at the long-term chart of Bitcoin
You'll see that Bitcoin has had several drawdowns of 77% or higher throughout its history
Moreover, even bullish periods of the cycle have experienced significant market corrections
In short, the price of Bitcoin has never gone straight up
During the previous crypto bull market cycle, the price of Bitcoin hit a (then) all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021
Twelve months later, the price of Bitcoin was $16,000, a decline of 77%
The price of Bitcoin later recovered, but some crypto investors were wiped out
Admittedly, the volatility of Bitcoin is lower these days, and the pullbacks appear to be less extreme
Even when Bitcoin fell to $75,000 earlier this year, it quickly recovered
Over the long haul, I have no doubt that Bitcoin will continue to march higher
Maybe it will one day hit the mythical $1 million mark
However, I'm still not convinced that Wall Street has figured out Bitcoin, and that it's up only from here on out
If you buy into the logic of "this time it's different," you may be setting yourself up for disappointment later
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin
The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin
The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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