Texas Flood Disaster - The Case For A Weather Radio Renaissance?

InnovationScienceTexas Flood Disaster - The Case For A Weather Radio Renaissance

ByMarshall Shepherd, Senior Contributor

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights

Rescuers were desperately ing for at least 20 girls missing from a riverside summer camp, officials said on July 5, after torrential rains caused a "catastrophic" flash flood that killed at least 24 people as it swept through south-central Texas. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP) (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty Images The catastrophic flooding in the hill country of Texas is the U

Extreme weather event to cause significant disruption

At the time of writing, the death toll had surpassed 50, and many people are still missing

As this tragedy unfolds, every stone should be flipped to find ways to prevent such horrific loss of life

Some experts believe the Texas floods make the case for a weather radio renaissance

The Last Mile As I wrote in a companion piece this weekend, the National Weather Service issued guidance and warning information in the days to hours leading up to the massive flood event

However, questions exist whether there were challenges getting the information across what my colleague Bob Henson calls the “last mile” to the public via emergency management and communication channels

By the way, Henson and his colleague Jeff Masters wrote a great analysis on this flood catastrophe

Crews work to debris from the Cade Loop bridge along the Guadalupe River on Saturday, July 5,

All rights reserved Though weather forecasts were within expectations of sound verification, a couple of familiar challenges emerged

First, narratives that say the “bullseye” in rainfall was off by 20 miles so the forecast was wrong are flawed

Decisions should be made based on current capabilities

If it rains in my subdivision, but not on my tomato garden, it is still a good forecast

We encounter significant challenges conveying to the public and decision-makers that pinpoint rainfall forecasts are an illusion so area-wide babilistic forecasting has to be employed

One finding was that people have benchmark storms from the past in their minds that may hindered preparation for current or future events that may be more intense, stronger or more frequent

NOAA Some early reports point to NWS staff shortages hindering handoff to the EM community, but it may be too early draw these conclusions

Other analyses have questioned the warning or alert infrastructure in what is known as “Flash Flood Alley. ” Why isn’t there a more extensive real-time warning or siren system present along those river regions populated by camps and RV parks

Is it time to reconsider the location of facilities along flood-ne rivers in the Texas Hill Country

After all, this will happen again

The region is situated in hilly terrain, receives a lot of Gulf moisture and remnant tropical systems, and climate change is, on average, boosting the intensity of rain falling from storms

This region had flood events naturally before climate change

It is also true that atmospheric and ocean warming makes more moisture available to storms and increasing rainfall rates

It is not "either/or. " It is “and. ” Additionally, more paved surfaces increase runoff and flawed assumptions of stationarity in stormwater engineering amplify floods

I spoke with former NWS meteorologist Bart Hagemeyer who spent 37 years in the nation’s forecast agency

Combined, 63 people were killed in those two events

Speaking on the Texas flooding, he told me, “The warnings and watches were timely and what would be considered state of the art, but many people died, and that’s hard

It usually boils down to how or if people got the warnings at what time and what actions did they take if they had time. ” Hagemeyer has been a long-time advocate of NOAA Weather Radio

He said, “Historically the NWS has always stressed having a plan for your family, or whatever entity needs tecting and having at least two different ways to get warning information at all times, but especially during the night and one of those is the NOAA Weather Radio. ” So Why Weather Radios

The Texas Tribune reported, “All NWS flash flood warnings, including the one issued after midnight on Friday, triggered Wireless Emergency Alerts, the emergency push notification sent through cellphone towers to all wireless phones in the emergency area

Bob Fogarty, a NWS meteorologist told reporter Paul Cobler, ”That warning was d nine times throughout Friday, each of which triggered separate alerts through the Emergency Alert System and the Wireless Emergency Alerts. " Did people receive these notices

It was nighttime, so many people ly did not have immediate access to their phones

Texas Hill Country is also complex terrain, which means there are ly pockets of spotty cellular coverage

Texas as viewed from space by a NASA MODIS instrument

NASA NOAA weather radios have been a staple for decades to warn people hazardous weather, particularly at night

Officially known as NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards, the NOAA website said, “NWR is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather information directly from the nearest National Weather Service office

NWR broadcasts official Weather Service warnings, watches, forecasts and other hazard information 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. ” I have one in my house, but many of you, I have grown more reliant on cellphone Wireless Emergence Alerts

The NOAA website went on to say, “NWR is vided as a public service by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), part of the Department of Commerce…

NWR requires a special radio receiver or scanner capable of picking up the signal. " NWR broadcasts on seven frequencies (162. 55 MHz range) and up to 40 miles from the transmitter

The current listing of NOAA weather radio stations in Texas indicates that some are out of service, but the ones in Hill Country are active

Hagemyer told me, “It sets off a loud alert when a warning is issued for your county and has battery backup so it works whether there is power or not…

We used to put out statements in the evening reminding people to have their weather radios on before they go to bed when we expected overnight tornadoes. ” He noted that most of the discussion in the wake of the Texas flooding has focused on cellphone coverage rather than having a backup plan

Pagation maps for the NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in the Hill Country region

NWS via Bart Hagemeyer The Renaissance

NWR is specifically designed to send out an alert over the airwaves to inexpensive grammable radio receivers within seconds of the NWS meteorologist pushing the enter button on a critical warning

The map above shows the NWR pagation extent for Texas

It appears that affected regions were covered

Hagemeyer also said, "I thought of it immediately as a key tool for campground managers for backup warning receipt to implement their plans. " He went on to say, “I suspect NWR is not very sexy to talk

He told me, “I believe that every camp, camp ground, RV park and outdoor gathering place should have at least a working NOAA weather radio and a policy of passing on warnings to their guests. ” He also thinks that cedures for communicating a evacuation plan are needed

He closed by saying, “I’ve stayed in many campgrounds and they tend to have a speaker system where they make announcements

Why don’t these exist everywhere

Safety first should mean SAFETY FIRST. ”KERRVILLE, TEXAS - JULY 05: Flood waters left debris including vehicles and equipment scattered in

Heavy rainfall caused flooding along the Guadalupe River in central Texas with multiple fatalities reported. (Photo by Eric Vryn/Getty Images)Getty Images Editorial StandardsRes & PermissionsLOADING PLAYER.