Stocks slide globally as investors digest Trump’s new tariffs—analysts warn their ‘greatest fears’ are yet to come

Finance·Stocks slide globally as investors digest Trump’s new tariffs—analysts warn their ‘greatest fears’ are yet to comeBy Jim EdwardsBy Jim EdwardsExecutive Editor, Global NewsJim EdwardsExecutive Editor, Global NewsJim Edwards is the executive editor for global news at Fortune

He was previously the editor-in-chief of Insider's news division and the founding editor of Insider UK

His investigative journalism has changed the law in two U.S. federal districts and two states

Supreme Court cited his work on the death penalty in the concurrence to Baze v

Rees, the ruling on whether lethal injection is cruel or unusual

Analysts warn the true impact of these tariffs will hit the U.S. economy in the coming months through higher costs for companies and consumers

That’s only the short-term reaction

The real effects of tariffs won’t arrive in the U.S. for months, analysts are warning

Although today’s selloff is negative, it’s also muted, according to Deutsche Bank. “The U.S. tariff rate has risen to 15% from a little over 2% at the start of the year

That’s their highest level since the 1930s but that has not prevented U.S. equities from being near their all-time highs and other being much stronger this year,” Jim Reid and his team told clients this morning. (Elsewhere, South Korea’s KOSPI fell an astonishing 3.9% today but most of that was because of a new set of taxes on companies and investors announced by the government there. “As you can imagine the posals are not ving amongst market participants,” Reid wrote.) Nonetheless, analysts are gloomy this morning

Even the good news is being greeted with disdain

For instance, Apple dered a stellar Q2 earnings call last night. “Apple surprised investors with results that defied seasonal trends and marked a significant acceleration in total company revenue growth,” JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee told clients

Why? Tariffs, for one reason

That’s the main issue on Wall Street: These extra tariff costs are now baked in and will show up, finally, in the real world in the coming months and through 2026. “Japanese data indicate that U.S. tariffs have had an overall negative effect on exports,” ING’s Min Joo Kang said this morning. “Japanese exporters appeared to have offset some tariff impacts by reducing prices

But they may eventually pass costs on to consumers, potentially causing delayed price pressures in the U.S.” UBS’s Paul Donovan put it this way: “The global economy is reverberating with the dull thud of the yoke of taxation dropping onto the shoulders of U.S. consumers

These taxes do not show up in consumer baskets with full force until January next year.” There are two other downside risks to keep an eye on

Firstly, today we get the jobs number (nonfarm payrolls)

The consensus expectation is 105,000 jobs were added but that would be below the three-month average of 150,000, according to Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels at Goldman Sachs

Secondly, personal consumption expenditures are weakening, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs and Or Allen. “Spending already has slowed sharply since last year, with the level of expenditure in June no higher than in December

We expect spending to remain stagnant over the rest of this year, as real incomes tread water amid a softening labor market and burst of goods inflation,” they said

No prizes for guessing where that “goods inflation” is coming from

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