
Social Security's 2026 COLA Has the Makings of a No-Win Situation
Key Takeaways
It might not give beneficiaries the boost they hoped for.
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4 min read
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personal finance
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July 26, 2025
04:36 AM
The Motley Fool
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The analysis indicates that It might not give beneficiaries the boost they hoped for
Additionally, When you're waiting on big news that affects your day-to-day finances, it's never easy to sit tight and keep calm (something worth watching)
Say you're anticipating a large holiday bonus from your employer and you know that announcement is coming in a matter of months
The data indicates that can be difficult to push thoughts of that bonus out of your mind and focus on other things (remarkable data)
Furthermore, Similarly, seniors on Social Security are ready to know what their 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is going to amount to -- and we're getting closer to when an official announcement will be made
Image source: Getty Images, in today's financial world
Additionally, Recent inflation data just gave us a big clue as to what to expect out of next year's Social Security COLA (noteworthy indeed)
Unfortunately, the news isn't so great -- even though it might seem positive at first, in this volatile climate
At the same time, Why seniors on Social Security won't win out in 2025 The purpose of Social Security COLAs is to help beneficiaries maintain their buying power as inflation makes life more expensive across the board (which is quite significant)
Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
Nevertheless, Because we don't have any third-quarter CPI-W data yet, it's too soon to figure out what the upcoming COLA will be
That said, experts can use the most current inflation data to make an educated guess 2026's COLA, amid market uncertainty
Based on June's inflation numbers, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, is estimating a 2
However, 6% COLA for 2026
Nevertheless, On the one hand, that's good news, since the group's last estimate pointed to a 2026 COLA of just 2
On the other hand, a larger Social Security increase is not necessarily a good thing (this bears monitoring)
Because COLAs and inflation go hand in hand, a larger COLA is an indication that living costs are rising at a more uncomfortable pace
However, Put another way, what seniors on Social Security gain in the form of a more generous COLA, they might easily lose in the form of paying more for food, utilities, fuel, and other essentials
Additionally, It's important to have realistic expectations There are people who hope each year that their Social Security COLA will help them gain buying power
On the other hand, But that's unly to happen
The purpose of COLAs isn't to help Social Security recipients get ahead financially
Rather, it's simply to make sure they don't fall behind, in this volatile climate
Over the years, Social Security COLAs have failed seniors due to blems in the way they're measured
However, There's unfortunately a good chance that 2026's COLA will fall short as well, no matter what it amounts to
For this reason, in the context of COLAs, there are unly to be any real winners in 2026 -- and it's important to recognize that and have realistic expectations
Conversely, In a best-case scenario, seniors will break even next year
But that's not particularly helpful for retirees on Social Security who feel financially strained already (fascinating analysis)
Anyone in that boat should look at cutting expenses or seeking out part-time work, rather than banking on a COLA
Even if next year's number is surprisingly high, it ultimately may not do a world of good
On the other hand, Moreover, The Author Maurie Backman is a contributing Retirement and Social Security Expert at The Motley Fool (which is quite significant)
Additionally, Maurie has more than a decade of experience writing financial topics, including retirement, Social Security, and personal finance
Prior to The Motley Fool, she worked in the finance industry, focusing on bankrupt and distressed companies, in today's financial world
She also briefly worked as a toy designer and spent several years at a marketing company, given current economic conditions
Furthermore, She studied creative writing and finance at Binghamton University
In her spare time, Maurie is an avid reader typically reading 100 books or more per year
TMFBookNerd The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy (noteworthy indeed).
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