Social Security's 2026 COLA Has the Makings of a No-Win Situation
Personal Finance
The Motley Fool

Social Security's 2026 COLA Has the Makings of a No-Win Situation

July 26, 2025
04:36 AM
4 min read
AI Enhanced
financefinancialconsumer staplesutilitiesmarket cyclesseasonal analysiseconomic

Key Takeaways

It might not give beneficiaries the boost they hoped for.

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Quick insights and key information

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4 min read

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personal finance

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Published

July 26, 2025

04:36 AM

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The Motley Fool

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Key Topics
financefinancialconsumer staplesutilitiesmarket cyclesseasonal analysiseconomic

The analysis indicates that It might not give beneficiaries the boost they hoped for

Additionally, When you're waiting on big news that affects your day-to-day finances, it's never easy to sit tight and keep calm (something worth watching)

Say you're anticipating a large holiday bonus from your employer and you know that announcement is coming in a matter of months

The data indicates that can be difficult to push thoughts of that bonus out of your mind and focus on other things (remarkable data)

Furthermore, Similarly, seniors on Social Security are ready to know what their 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is going to amount to -- and we're getting closer to when an official announcement will be made

Image source: Getty Images, in today's financial world

Additionally, Recent inflation data just gave us a big clue as to what to expect out of next year's Social Security COLA (noteworthy indeed)

Unfortunately, the news isn't so great -- even though it might seem positive at first, in this volatile climate

At the same time, Why seniors on Social Security won't win out in 2025 The purpose of Social Security COLAs is to help beneficiaries maintain their buying power as inflation makes life more expensive across the board (which is quite significant)

Social Security COLAs are based on third-quarter changes to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

Nevertheless, Because we don't have any third-quarter CPI-W data yet, it's too soon to figure out what the upcoming COLA will be

That said, experts can use the most current inflation data to make an educated guess 2026's COLA, amid market uncertainty

Based on June's inflation numbers, the Senior Citizens League, an advocacy group, is estimating a 2

However, 6% COLA for 2026

Nevertheless, On the one hand, that's good news, since the group's last estimate pointed to a 2026 COLA of just 2

On the other hand, a larger Social Security increase is not necessarily a good thing (this bears monitoring)

Because COLAs and inflation go hand in hand, a larger COLA is an indication that living costs are rising at a more uncomfortable pace

However, Put another way, what seniors on Social Security gain in the form of a more generous COLA, they might easily lose in the form of paying more for food, utilities, fuel, and other essentials

Additionally, It's important to have realistic expectations There are people who hope each year that their Social Security COLA will help them gain buying power

On the other hand, But that's unly to happen

The purpose of COLAs isn't to help Social Security recipients get ahead financially

Rather, it's simply to make sure they don't fall behind, in this volatile climate

Over the years, Social Security COLAs have failed seniors due to blems in the way they're measured

However, There's unfortunately a good chance that 2026's COLA will fall short as well, no matter what it amounts to

For this reason, in the context of COLAs, there are unly to be any real winners in 2026 -- and it's important to recognize that and have realistic expectations

Conversely, In a best-case scenario, seniors will break even next year

But that's not particularly helpful for retirees on Social Security who feel financially strained already (fascinating analysis)

Anyone in that boat should look at cutting expenses or seeking out part-time work, rather than banking on a COLA

Even if next year's number is surprisingly high, it ultimately may not do a world of good

On the other hand, Moreover, The Author Maurie Backman is a contributing Retirement and Social Security Expert at The Motley Fool (which is quite significant)

Additionally, Maurie has more than a decade of experience writing financial topics, including retirement, Social Security, and personal finance

Prior to The Motley Fool, she worked in the finance industry, focusing on bankrupt and distressed companies, in today's financial world

She also briefly worked as a toy designer and spent several years at a marketing company, given current economic conditions

Furthermore, She studied creative writing and finance at Binghamton University

In her spare time, Maurie is an avid reader typically reading 100 books or more per year

TMFBookNerd The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy (noteworthy indeed).