Social Security Benefits Cuts Are Possible by 2033: Here's Precisely How Much Retired Workers Can Lose Each Month

Jected retired-worker benefit cuts are even steeper than previously forecast

For most retirees, Social Security income is a necessity

In each of the last 24 years, Gallup has polled retirees to determine how important Social Security income is to their financial well-being

In 2025, 86% noted it was a "major" or "minor" income source, which is in line with the 80% to 90% of respondents who, for nearly a quarter of a century, have leaned on their payout, in some capacity, to make ends meet

Based on the estimates from those who know the Social Security gram inside and out, benefit cuts are possible for retired workers and survivors of deceased workers in as little as eight years

Worse yet, the amount that benefits are expected to be cut if Congress implements no reforms is even bigger than initially forecast

Image source: Getty Images

In addition to detailing how Social Security brings in its revenue and showcasing how it gets spent, this annual report focuses on changes in fiscal and monetary policy, as well as demographic shifts, to estimate how financially sound Social Security is over the coming 75 years (what the Trustees define as the "long term")

For four decades, the Trustees Report has warned of a long-term unfunded obligation

In other words, the Trustees jected the amount of income that would be collected over the 75 years ing a report and compared that figure to estimated outlays, including annual cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs) and the gram's administrative expenses

While this long-term funding obligation shortfall is sometimes attributed to "congressional theft" or "undocumented migrants receiving traditional Social Security benefits," neither of these scapegoats is accurate

Rather, Social Security's worsening financial health is primarily the result of a multitude of demographic shifts

In no particular order, this includes: The retirement of baby boomers Increased longevity over multiple decades Rising income inequality A notable decline in net legal migration into the U

Birth rate Social Security benefits can be cut in as little as eight years However, Social Security's long-term funding shortfall isn't the most immediate threat for beneficiaries

The biggest concern pertains to the dwindling asset reserves for the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which is the fund responsible for doling out monthly benefits to retired workers and survivor beneficiaries

US Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund Assets at End of Year data by YCharts

The OASI's asset reserves represent the excess capital -- in other words, income collected minus outlays -- brought in since inception that's invested in special-issue, interest-bearing government bonds, as required by law

To be abundantly, the OASI doesn't require a cent in its asset reserve to continue paying benefits to eligible retirees and survivors

Bluntly, Social Security is in no danger of going bankrupt, becoming insolvent, or stopping benefit checks

But what is at risk, if the OASI's asset reserves are exhausted, is the existing payout schedule, including COLAs

The 2025 Trustees Report estimates that if nothing is done to counter the downward trajectory of the OASI's asset reserves, "OASI income would be sufficient to pay 77 percent of OASI scheduled benefits. " In simple terms, payments would be reduced by a jected 23% come 2033 to avoid any additional benefit cuts through 2099

However, Social Security benefits aren't static

Image source: Getty Images

Social Security reforms may still be years away With the Trustees Report pointing to trouble every year for four decades, you'd think maintaining the financial stability of Social Security would be the top priority of lawmakers in Congress

Unfortunately, reforming Social Security has ved challenging in multiple respects

To begin with, all reforms result in some group of people ending up worse off than they were before

Whether you believe in increasing taxation on high earners or gradually raising the full retirement age, which would require future generations of workers to wait longer to receive their full benefit, no reform can be made without some group of people getting the verbial short end of the stick

Lawmakers typically avoid tackling this sensitive issue because it can cost them votes in future elections

Another reason Social Security's well-documented issues are continually swept under the rug is because of the ideological differences between America's two major political parties

Though you can read their respective apaches in greater detail, Democrats typically seek to increase revenue through taxation, whereas Republicans are focused on reducing long-term outlays

Since both of these strategies are effective at strengthening Social Security (albeit along very different timelines), neither party is willing to work with their opposition to find common ground

This leads to the next point: The Social Security Act can only be am with 60 votes in the Senate

It's been 46 years (and counting) since either party has held a supermajority of seats (60) in the upper house of Congress

This means any reforms will require bipartisan cooperation, which has been mostly absent for decades

Perhaps the one silver lining for retired workers is that Congress has previously come to Social Security's rescue at the 11th hour

With the OASI still an estimated eight years away from depleting its asset reserves, lawmakers aren't going to be in a hurry to reform Social Security

But based on Congress's track record, an eventual "fix" seems ly

One question remains: How costly will it be for working Americans and retirees

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