Sam Altman might be right: He’s not the only one who thinks the stock market is in ‘bubble’ territory

Economy·Sam Altman might be right: He’s not the only one who thinks the stock market is in ‘bubble’ territoryBy Jim EdwardsBy Jim EdwardsExecutive Editor, Global NewsJim EdwardsExecutive Editor, Global NewsJim Edwards is the executive editor for global news at Fortune

He was previously the editor-in-chief of Insider's news division and the founding editor of Insider UK

His investigative journalism has changed the law in two U.S. federal districts and two states

Supreme Court cited his work on the death penalty in the concurrence to Baze v

Rees, the ruling on whether lethal injection is cruel or unusual

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the word “bubble” three times in 15 seconds in a room full of reporters and then urged them not to write a story it—thus ensuring that plenty of stories would be written

He was arguing that investors are “overexcited” by AI

Is he right? From the point of view of nical stock valuations, bably yes

From the point of view of fundamentals, maybe not

A classic bubble exists when the assets being valued are fundamentally not worth their price (and never will be) or when the underlying value is close to zero

And in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, it became in hindsight that many mortgages had been given to people who simply didn’t have the ability to afford them, and thus those mortgages were worth far less than banks’ balance sheets said they did

So the question becomes whether AI is a bubble or not right now

From the fundamental point of view, the answer is no

OpenAI isn’t literally worth nothing

It’s not a tulip bulb or a tract in the middle of nowhere

There is a real there

JPMorgan’s Brenda Duverce told clients in a recent note that “OpenAI’s ARR has reached ~$13bn (up 30% from Jun-25), and the company has reported it is on track to reach 700mn weekly active users (up 40% from Mar-25), while surpassing 5mn paying users (up 66% from Jun-25).” She also noted that a “secondary market transaction that could push the company’s valuation to $500bn, up from the previously cited $300bn post-money figure from Mar-25, which would make OpenAI the most valuable private company in the world.” To put that bluntly, a company with a chatbot that often gets things wrong is somehow to become the largest unicorn earth has ever seen

That does feel frothy

But how the nical point of view? There is a lot of chatter on Wall Street right now whether stocks are overvalued in a way that looks a bubble

They have some scary charts! Here is a real head-scratcher: The contribution to U.S

GDP growth from data center spending is now the same as that from consumer spending, according to Apollo Management

The obvious blem with that: This state of affairs exists because consumers have reduced their spending habits as data spending has increased

Unless data centers suddenly start buying cars or shopping at Depot, this isn’t good for the long run

You can barely see the ‘Ex Mag 7’s’ 129% gain because of how much the 2,800% gain for the Mag 7 overshadows it,” the company says: Goldman Sachs’ David Kostin has reportedly said that the Mag 7 stocks grew their earnings per in Q2 by 26% year on year

So there is real money fueling a real there

The partial conclusion must be: This isn’t a bubble of fundamentals

No one thinks AI is made of tulips

But it does look a lot some stocks are nically overvalued, and it should not surprise anyone if this “bubble” bursts

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