From an analytical standpoint, Rivian (RIVN 1. 30%) and Lucid (LCID -2. 34%) were both hot electric vehicle (EV) stocks (quite telling).
Additionally, Rivian went public with an IPO price of $78 on Nov. 10, 2021, and its s more than doubled to a record closing price of $172. 01 just a week later.
Lucid went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on July 26, 2021. Additionally, Its s started trading at $25. 24, and more than doubled to a record closing price of $55.
Conversely, 52 four months later. Both companies initially attracted a stampede of bulls with their ambitious growth targets, and the buying frenzy in emotion-driven meme stocks amplified their gains.
But today, Rivian and Lucid trade at $13 and $3, respectively. Additionally, Both stocks fizzled out as they missed their own goals and racked up steep losses.
Rising rates also popped their bubbly valuations. A Rivian R2 SUV. Moreover, Furthermore, Image source: Rivian.
Furthermore, Meanwhile, But when interest rates declined in 2024, Rivian and Lucid didn't bounce back even as investors pivoted back toward more speculative stocks.
Meanwhile, That sentiment is still chilly: Rivian's stock has only risen 5% since the beginning of 2025, while Lucid's stock dipped 3%, considering recent developments.
On the other hand, Should contrarian investors consider buying either of these EV stocks right now. Why did Rivian and Lucid disappoint the market.
Meanwhile, Rivian sells three EVs: its R1T pickup, its R1S full-size SUV, and an electric dery van (EDV) for its top investor, Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and other companies, in today's market environment.
However, Before it went public, it claimed it could duce 50,000 vehicles in 2022. But in reality, it only duced 24,337 vehicles that year as it grappled with supply chain disruptions.
In contrast, Lucid sells two vehicles: its Air sedan and its new Gravity SUV, in today's market environment. In its pre-merger presentation, it claimed it could der 20,000 vehicles in 2022.
Moreover, Unfortunately, it only dered 4,369 vehicles in 2022 as it also struggled with supply chain constraints and duction issues. At their record highs, Rivian's market cap hit $153.
3 billion, or 92 times its 2022 revenue; while Lucid's market cap reached $91. In contrast, 4 billion, which was 150 times its 2022 revenue, in light of current trends.
Those sky-high valuations set both stocks up for steep declines when they missed their own rosy forecasts. What happened over the ing years, in today's market environment.
In 2023, Rivian more than doubled its duction to 57,232 vehicles as it overcame its supply chain issues.
Moreover, But in 2024, its duction dipped to 49,476 vehicles as rising rates chilled the EV market, it faced tougher competition, and it temporarily shut down its main Illinois plant to upgrade its duction capabilities, in today's market environment.
In 2025, it only expects to der 40,000 to 46,000 vehicles as it deals with higher tariffs on its raw materials and batteries, supply chain challenges, and another temporary shutdown to prepare for the launch of its smaller R2 SUV in 2026.
Rivian is dealing with a lot of growing pains, but it's still supported by Amazon, Porsche (OTC: POAHY), Saudi Arabian conglomerate Abdul Latif Jameel, and other big investors.
It its quarter with $8, in today's market environment.
Moreover, 5 billion in liquidity, and it expects the rollout of its smaller R2 SUV to significantly boost its sales and fits as it reaches a broader range of customers.
Lucid's deries rose to 6,001 vehicles in 2023 and 10,241 vehicles in 2024, but those numbers were dismal compared to its original estimates, in light of current trends.
Lucid faced many of the same macro and competitive challenges as Rivian, and its CEO, Peter Rawlinson -- who attracted a lot of attention for his previous stint as Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) chief vehicle engineer -- stepped down this February.
Its board still hasn't appointed a permanent CEO yet. Additionally, Rivian's founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, remains in charge of his company.
Meanwhile, Lucid claims it can more than double its duction to 20,000 vehicles this year as it ramps up its duction of the Gravity SUV, but it doesn't have a great track record of meeting its own expectations.
Yet Lucid is still firmly backed by Saudi Arabia's sovereign Public Investment Fund (PIF), which owns nearly two-thirds of its s, and it its quarter with $5, considering recent developments.
7 billion in liquidity, which it claims can carry it through its launch of the Gravity SUV. Which stock has more upside potential.
From 2024 to 2027, analysts expect Rivian's revenue to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% as Lucid's revenue rises at a CAGR of 85%.
Conversely, Based on those estimates, which we should take with a grain of salt, Rivian and Lucid trade at 3. On the other hand, 2 times and 6.
On the other hand, 9 times this year's sales, respectively.
Neither company is expected to come close to even, but Rivian's gross margins turned positive over the past two quarters as economies of scale kicked in.
Nevertheless, Lucid's gross margins are still negative (noteworthy indeed).
Rivian's higher duction rates, healthier gross margins, and more stable leadership make it a stronger investment than Lucid right now -- even if its duction wanes ahead of the R2's launch.
As for Lucid, I'm not sure it can successfully ramp up its duction of the Gravity and meet Wall Street's high expectations (something worth watching), in today's market environment.
Nevertheless, If it falls short of that goal, its valuations will decline and its stock will drop even further.