Prediction markets have a new favorite for the next Fed chair — Christopher Waller

Ann Saphir | ReutersThe odds that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be named the next chairman crossed above 50% for the first time on prediction market Kalshi.Waller's bability spiked from just 16% on Wednesday after Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that President Donald Trump's advisors his openness to adjust monetary policy based on forecasting, rather than current data

It also reported that Waller has met with Trump's team the Fed chief role but hasn't met with the president himself.Waller's chance on Kalshi has exceeded previous front-runners former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, whose odds stand at 20% and 35%, respectively.Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwardsTrump nominated Waller to the Fed in 2020

In the most recent Fed decision, in July, Waller, along with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, publicly dissented with the Fed's decision to hold rates steady

Waller said the Fed's wait-and-see apach is "overly cautious.""Waller is an ideal choice for investors given his recent dovish posture and political independence credibility," Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.Hassett and Warsh have advocated for lower interest rates

A total of 31% of participants wagered that no announcement will be made by December.On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he had four candidates in mind for the top slot but appeared to give the nod to both Warsh and Hassett."He's very good," Trump said, referring to Warsh. "Sometimes they're all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don't do so good

But … I think he's a very good guy

I'd say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good."Those s immediately sparked a flurry of activity that sent the odds for Hassett and Warsh higher on Kalshi.Don’t miss these insights from CNBC Bank of America says these five stocks have more room to run ahead of earningsThese overbought stocks could take a dip after the market's record gainsGoldman Sachs is getting worried the economyWhat the prediction are saying the big Wall Street events ahead