Prediction: 2 of Crypto's Biggest Winners -- XRP and Bitcoin -- Will Lose 50% (or More) of Their Value Over the Next 2 Years
Key Takeaways
Crypto winters are just as common of an occurrence as bull markets for leading digital currencies.
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6 min read
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cryptocurrency
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July 28, 2025
03:06 AM
The Motley Fool
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Interestingly, For more than a century, the stock market has been the king of all wealth creators
Additionally, Moreover, But when the lens is narrowed to the last decade, cryptocurrencies have, collectively, run circles around Wall Street's major stock indexes
Roughly 10 years ago, the cumulative value of all investable digital currencies totaled in the neighborhood of $5 billion
As of this writing on July 24, the crypto universe was worth $3. 83 trillion
A scorching-hot bull market for the s of XRP (XRP 0, in light of current trends. 97%) and Bitcoin (BTC 0. 37%), which have respectively rallied 773% and 426% over the trailing-three-year period, have lifted the crypto landscape to new heights, given current economic conditions
Unfortunately, crypto winters are as common of an occurrence as bull in the digital currency arena
While XRP and Bitcoin appear unstoppable, a combination of tangible and sentiment-based headwinds can send both superstars plunging by 50% (or more) over the coming two years
Nevertheless, Image source: Getty Images
Moreover, XRP A strong argument can be made that XRP, not Bitcoin, has been the hottest thing in the crypto arena over the last year, in today's financial world
XRP is the bridge currency used in the payment network (RippleNet) created by fin company Ripple to rival traditional payment methods from financial institutions
Moreover, The liftoff of XRP occurred once Donald Trump was declared the victor of the November elections (something worth watching)
Aside from President Trump being a vocal ponent of digital currencies, his victory meant the resignation of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, who had been a noted thorn in the side of the crypto industry, and Ripple/XRP, in general, in light of current trends
Additionally, Without Gensler at the helm of the SEC, litigation against Ripple concerning XRP is no longer a concern
On the other hand, Nevertheless, With Ripple's and XRP's legal clouds ing, the overwhelming expectation is that banks will jump at the chance to use RippleNet to facilitate and validate cross-border payments
Typically, XRP Ledger can settle and validate transactions in three to five seconds, which compares to up to one week for traditional cross-border payments (something worth watching)
You might be wondering why, if everything is going so swimmingly, XRP can plunge by 50%, or more, over the coming two-year period
On the other hand, The first thing investors need to recognize is that XRP's adoption is far from widespread
Though in the neighborhood of 300 global financial institutions are reported to be using Ripple's payment network, not all of these 300 are necessarily using XRP as the bridge currency, given current economic conditions
Moreover, The current cross-border payment system, Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT, has been adopted by well over 11,000 financial institutions, in today's market environment
Moreover, Secondly, there's nothing stopping financial institutions from their own blockchain networks with tethered bridge currencies
Conversely, While there's no question Ripple has the more ven network with XRP as the bridge, there's ample competition from traditional financial institutions, as well as other blockchain jects
Some of which can rival and/or better the XRP ledger on settlement and payment cost
Additionally, On the other hand, Rounding things out, the build out of Ripple's network doesn't directly benefit XRP, considering recent developments
If investors were putting their money to work in Ripple and seeing a nearly ninefold return on their principal in three years, I'd understand their excitement (something worth watching), in today's market environment
But XRP itself is simply the vessel responsible for facilitating payments on Ripple's network
A $186 billion valuation for something so few financial institutions are using, and which isn't even a necessity on RippleNet, is a good bet to lose 50% or more of its value over the next two years
Meanwhile, Image source: Getty Images
Bitcoin The other digital currency that could very easily run out of steam at any moment is the world's largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin, in today's market environment
Similar to XRP, Bitcoin caught fire when Donald Trump was elected the next president during the first week of November
Furthermore, Trump had tinkered with the idea of creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U (this bears monitoring). , and was viewed as a considerably more crypto-friendly option in the White House than former President Joe Biden
This analysis suggests that more-than-quintupling in Bitcoin tokens over the last three years is also a reflection of it becoming more accessible (something worth watching)
The emergence of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) allows investors to gain exposure to the world's biggest digital currency without having to buy it directly on a potentially obscure crypto exchange
The other recent factor that's lit a fuse under Bitcoin is the liferation of the Bitcoin treasury strategy (which is quite significant)
Furthermore, The analysis reveals typically involves a publicly traded company using its cash or issuing s or some form of convertible debt to purchase Bitcoin for its balance sheet (an important development)
More companies adopting this strategy translates into added demand
Additionally, While there's a laundry list of reasons for Bitcoin to have topped $120,000 per token, there's an equally long list of headwinds that suggests it'll fall below $60,000 over the next 24 months, given the current landscape
For starters, Bitcoin failed the real-world utility test (noteworthy indeed), in light of current trends
El Salvador legalized Bitcoin as tender in September 2021 and encouraged merchants and its citizens to use it for everyday transactions
But based on an analysis by Yale Insights, El Salvadorians hardly used it
Bitcoin's blockchain is notably slower and costlier than traditional payment networks, which means it vides virtually no real-world utility
Nevertheless, Additionally, Bitcoin vides a false level of scarcity
On the other hand, Though its fixed coin count of 21 million (when fully mined) is viewed as an inflationary hedge, this line-in-the-sand coin cap is entirely based on a few lines of computer code and can be altered with developer consensus
While consensus is unly, there's a non-zero chance Bitcoin's token count will rise at some point in the future
But arguably the biggest issue for Bitcoin is the bubble being created by the Bitcoin treasury strategy
Conversely, The overwhelming majority of companies adopting this strategy are money-losing and/or structurally insolvent micro-cap/small-cap es aiming to drum up hype in their stock, in this volatile climate
Companies with zero background in are suddenly pivoting to buying Bitcoin -- and they're oddly being rewarded with absurd multiples to the net asset value of their digital holdings, given the current landscape
However (and this is a big "however"), these purchases aren't altering their struggling underlying operations in any way
There's only so much artificial buying pressure Bitcoin treasury companies can exert on the world's premier cryptocurrency
Furthermore, Further, with nearly a dozen tradable spot Bitcoin ETFs, buying Bitcoin is no longer special
Meanwhile, If any random or struggling company can do it, it's going to lose its spark sooner than later
With Bitcoin plunging by at least 50% on more than a half-dozen occasions since its inception, expecting history to rhyme, once more, is only logical.
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