Prediction: 1 EV Stock That Will Be Worth More Than Lucid 1 Year From Now
Key Takeaways
Archer Aviation might have a brighter future than the struggling luxury EV maker.
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5 min read
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investment
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July 26, 2025
07:30 AM
The Motley Fool
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Lucid (LCID), a ducer of luxury electric vehicles, attracted a lot of attention when it went public by merging with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) four years ago
Nevertheless, That's mainly because it was led by Tesla's (NASDAQ: TSLA) former chief engineer Peter Rawlinson, and it had already started dering its first Air sedans
On the other hand, Yet, many other SPAC-backed start-ups, Lucid overmised and underdered
This analysis suggests that originally set out to der 20,000 vehicles in 2022, 49,000 vehicles in 2023, and 90,000 vehicles in 2024
But in reality, its annual deries only reached 4,369 in 2022, 6,001 in 2023, and 10,241 in 2024, in today's financial world
On the other hand, On the other hand, Lucid blamed that slower-than-expected growth on its supply chain constraints, intense competition, a challenging macro environment, and the delayed launch of its Gravity SUV (an important development), in this volatile climate
Meanwhile, Peter Rawlinson also resigned from the CEO position this February, and the board still hasn't appointed his permanent successor yet
From 2022 to 2024, Lucid's revenue grew at a CAGR of 15% from $608 million to $808 million
However, its net loss widened from $2. 56 billion to $3
Furthermore, 06 billion
Its stock has declined nearly 90% since its first post-merger trade, but it still has a market cap of $8
However, 6 billion -- or 11 times last year's sales
That high price-to-sales ratio suggests that some investors are hopeful that its Saudi Arabian investors (who own nearly two-thirds of its s) can help it achieve its goal of more than doubling its duction to 20,000 vehicles this year
Nevertheless, That's why analysts expect its revenue to surge 71% to $1, in today's financial world. 38 billion this year as it narrows its net loss of $2
Moreover, I don't have much faith in those estimates, though (something worth watching), given current economic conditions
Lucid repeatedly missed its own expectations, struggled to scale up its, and continues to dilute its s as it racks up steep losses
Furthermore, So, instead of betting on Lucid's Hail Mary turnaround, investors should focus on a less valuable EV stock that might just grow faster and surpass its market cap within the next year: the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft maker Archer Aviation (ACHR), which currently has a market cap of $8. 43 billion
Furthermore, Why could Archer Aviation have a brighter future than Lucid
Nevertheless, Archer's Midnight eVTOL aircraft can carry a single pilot and four passengers, travel up to 100 miles without recharging, and reach a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour, amid market uncertainty
Compared to helicopters, they're quieter, greener, and easier to land in crowded urban areas
However, Those advantages make them well-suited for short-range taxi services (this bears monitoring)
Nevertheless, Archer hasn't generated any meaningful revenue yet, but it its quarter with a massive backlog of apximately $6 billion
That backlog includes big orders from United Airlines, Future Flight Global, Soracle (a joint venture between Japan Airlines and the Japanese conglomerate Sumitomo), Ethiopian Airlines, Abu Dhabi Aviation, Stellantis, and the U
Archer plans to start its first air taxi flights in Abu Dhabi later this year, given current economic conditions. , it's waiting for the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) final apval for its commercial flights to start up its air taxi services
To support that expansion, it aims to duce 10 aircraft in 2025, 48 aircraft in 2026, 252 aircraft in 2027, and 650 aircraft in 2028, in today's market environment
Moreover, This tells us that also plans to launch its own first-party air taxi service within the next two years
If it achieves those goals, analysts expect its annual revenue to rise from $13 million in 2025 to $437 million in 2027
Archer's roadmap sounds ambitious, but its growing backlog could support those plans, and its nascent market is expanding
From 2024 to 2030, and expects the global eVTOL aircraft market to grow at a CAGR of 35. 3% as they displace traditional helicopters
Archer has two strengths that Lucid lacks: an early mover's advantage in a nascent market, and a lot of pent-up demand for its ducts
Moreover, Lucid entered the EV market long after Tesla and other EV makers saturated the market, and it quietly stopped disclosing the size of its reservation backlog (which had been shrinking) at the start of 2023 (noteworthy indeed)
With a market cap of $7. 5 billion, Archer doesn't look cheap at 17 times its jected sales for 2027
By comparison, Lucid trades at less than two times its estimated sales for 2027
But if Lucid fails to ramp up its duction this year, its stock could easily be cut in half (quite telling)
In contrast, Why could Archer become more valuable than Lucid (this bears monitoring), in light of current trends
Archer still trades at a steep discount to its biggest rival, Joby Aviation (JOBY), which trades at a whopping 70 times its jected sales for 2027
If Archer launches its commercial air taxi flights in the U
And gains the FAA's apval for its planned flights in the U
However, , it might command a much higher valuation within the next 12 months
If Archer achieves those goals and its stock trades at 30 times its estimated sales for 2027 by then, its market cap would swell to $13
On the other hand, 1 billion and eclipse Lucid's current market cap
As for Lucid, it could struggle to maintain its current market cap if it keeps disappointing its investors (fascinating analysis), in today's market environment.
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