OPEC+ to ramp up oil output even higher in August with eye on market share
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Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance said they would further increase oil output in August to 548,000 barrels per day.
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July 5, 2025
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Fortune
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Economy·OilOPEC+ to ramp up oil output even higher in August with eye on market BY Pol-Malo Le BrisBY AFPBY Pol-Malo Le BrisBY AFPEight key OPEC+ members agreed to raise supply by 548,000 barrels a day at a conference on Saturday
Michael Nguyen—NurPhoto via Getty ImagesSaudi Arabia, Russia and six other key members of the OPEC+ alliance on Saturday said they would further increase oil output in August to 548,000 barrels per day
Analysts had expected the alliance to decide on another output increase of 411,000 bpd — the same target apved for May, June and July
The group said in a statement that “a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories” led to the decision to further hike output
Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy told AFP that “OPEC+ keeps surprising the market — this hike was even larger than expected and sends a message, for anyone still in doubt: the group is firmly shifting toward a market strategy. “Two big questions now hang over the market: First, once the full 2. 2 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts are unwound, will OPEC+ target the next tier of 1. 66 million barrels
And second, is there enough demand to absorb it. “With prices holding comfortably above $60 and a turbulent geopolitical backdrop — especially given the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, and broader risks in Ukraine and Libya — the answer to both questions might well be ‘yes’. ” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said that “effectively Kazakhstan and Iraq still overducing their higher quotas is a factor supporting the cut unwind decision” on Saturday
The meeting comes after a 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel, which briefly sent prices above $80 a barrel amid concerns over a possible closing of the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of the world’s oil supply
The wider OPEC+ group — comprising the 12-nation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies — began output cuts in 2022 in a bid to p up prices
But in a policy shift, eight alliance members spearheaded by Saudi Arabia surprised by announcing they would significantly raise duction from May, sending oil prices plummeting
Oil prices have been hovering around a low $65-$70 per barrel
By apving another output hike, heavyweight Saudi Arabia might seek to up pressure on members for not keeping to agreed quotas via slashing expected oil fits due to lower prices
An estimate by Bloomberg showed that the alliance’s duction increased by only 200,000 bpd in May, despite doubling the quotas
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