Oil and fuel prices hang in the balance as Trump and Putin meet to broker peace

·Vladimir PutinEuropeOil and fuel prices hang in the balance as Trump and Putin meet to broker peaceBy Jordan BlumBy Jordan BlumEditor, EnergyJordan BlumEditor, EnergyJordan Blum is the Energy editor at Fortune, overseeing coverage of a growing global energy sector for oil and gas, transition es, renewables, and critical minerals.SEE FULL BIO Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S

But there will be additional stakes for many leaders—because prices at the pump and the health of the oil industry are ly to swing depending on the talks’ results

Whatever the outcome, it’ll create winners and losers in the energy space

Peace means lower fuel prices for consumers, even as a bearish oil sector turns increasingly pessimistic the months and year ahead

On the other hand: Hardening stances and increased sanctions against Russia and buyers of Russian oil would add pain at the pump, while potentially reinvigorating a languishing oil industry and driving higher revenues, analysts said

Regardless of the direction, incremental pricing swings are expected—and not any dramatic boom or bust

Russia can only add so much oil to the global marketplace if sanctions are removed

The blem for the already slowed oil sector is that even smaller downward pricing changes can exacerbate the industry’s struggles, given that OPEC has notably hiked its duction volumes this year. “I don’t think there’s a big wall of oil coming from Russia if peace breaks out,” said energy forecaster Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer for Pickering Energy Partners consulting and re firm. “My expectation is there’s a more significant impact on sentiment—’Here come the Russians’—than there would be on actual barrels.” Russia duced 9.05 million barrels per day of crude oil in the second quarter of 2025, according to the U.S

That would represent a marked uptick, but not enough to truly upend oil . “In a bullish market, the market bably shrugs it off

In a bearish market, every supply-related data point gets a little more weight than it bably should,” Pickering said. “There’s a bigger risk to sentiment than to the actual supply of oil.” The main reason: Western sanctions on Russian oil haven’t been all that effective since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022

China, India, and other buyers simply imported much more Russian oil, utilizing the so-called dark fleet of oil tankers that uses deceptive tactics to conceal what they’re shipping

Still, Russian volumes have dipped from an estimated 9.2 million barrels daily in 2024 and from 9.6 million barrels in 2023, according to the DOE

Russia is the third-largest oil ducer in the world, well behind the U.S. and slightly behind Saudi Arabia

Increased sanctions would hurt Russia most if secondary sanctions were placed on buyers of Russian oil

More secondary sanctions would undoubtedly push oil prices upward because fewer Russian barrels would find export destinations, ly curbing Russia’s output

Global dynamics at play These dynamics are playing out as the U.S. oil industry slows down activity and decreases duction from recent record highs amid weaker oil prices

The national average for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline averaged $3.08 at the beginning of this week, down 32 cents from a year prior, according to GasBuddy

What the industry fears most is a global oil glut—”the four-letter word that has ducers doubting their futures,” said Trey Cowan, analyst for the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, in a new report ahead of the Russia peace talks

The gap between global supply and demand expanded from 60,000 barrels per day a year ago to almost 1.3 million barrels by mid-2025, according to the DOE, which is at least glut adjacent

Those extra OPEC+ barrels alone could push U.S. oil prices below the $60 threshold later this year or into 2026. “I don’t see how U.S. duction doesn’t dip next year,” Pickering said

Already, the number of active rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. has plunged by 15% since April; it’s down to 411 rigs, a loss of 70 rigs, according to re firm Enverus

That hardly Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill” theme

The plan now is to keep duction steady while cutting costs, increasing free cash flow, and hiking holder dividends, said Bruce Niemeyer, Chevron president of shale and tight oil

Further activity reductions are expected, he told Fortune, although the cutbacks are strategic and not in response to Russia or OPEC. “We recognize we don’t control that,” Niemeyer said of Russia. “So we do our planning long term, and we do it across a variety of scenarios

We’re resilient at low prices.” Even if oil prices are weaker, Russia would still be motivated to hike oil exports if sanctions are removed

The country’s oil duction is currently limited in part by weakened infrastructure, nology, and skilled labor, all resulting from the war

For instance, Ukraine successfully bombed Lukoil’s Volgograd oil refinery on Aug. 14, just ahead of the peace talks. “The U.S. ducers are capital disciplined,” Pickering said. “The Russian ducers are going be focused on cash flows and getting dollars

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