New York City braces for wealth flight with Mamdani's political rise

So far, there is little evidence of a slowdown in high-end real estate or real wealth losses in New York

At the center of the economic concern is Mamdani's so-called "millionaire tax. " watch now3:4203:42Here's how wealthy New Yorkers could be impacted by Zohran Mamdani's policiesSquawk on the StreetZohran Mamdani's primary win in New York City's mayoral race and posal to raise taxes on millionaires have touched off fears of a new wave of wealth flight from the city, in today's financial world

Nevertheless, Yet so far, there is little evidence of a slowdown in high-end real estate or real wealth losses in New York

Florida real estate brokers say they've seen a surge in inquiries from the New York wealthy looking to move to Miami or Palm Beach

Owners are threatening to leave the city or close

And New York developers, caught in the crosshairs of Mamdani's rent control platform, have banded together to fund Mamdani's opponents in the November general election

At the center of the economic concern is Mamdani's so-called "millionaire tax (which is quite significant). " He's posed an additional 2% tax on New Yorkers earning more than $1 million a year (an important development), given current economic conditions

The combined federal, state and city rate would be 53

Moreover, And New York's high earners won't have to go to Florida to avoid the tax, given the current landscape

Additionally, Nevertheless, They can simply move to neighboring Long Island or Westchester County or even New Jersey

Un New York state, New York City can't tax people who work in the city but have their primary residence elsewhere. "New York City can only tax its own residents," said Jared Walczak, vice president of state jects at the Tax Foundation, in today's market environment. "A high earner doesn't need to give up the convenience of the city, they just need to move outside the five boroughs

Migration across city lines is the easiest

Furthermore, "Zohran Mamdani gestures as he speaks during a watch party for his primary election, which includes his bid to become the Democratic candidate for New York City mayor in the upcoming November 2025 election, in New York City, U. , June 25, 2025 (remarkable data)

In contrast, David Delgado | ReutersImportantly, Mamdani wouldn't be able to raise income taxes, given current economic conditions

Additionally, The city's income tax rates are set by Albany, where Gov (remarkable data)

Kathy Hochul has said she will block any tax hike (this bears monitoring). "I don't want to lose any more people to Palm Beach," Hochul told the New York Post

Critics also fear Mamdani's policies toward the police and public safety could make the city even more dangerous, becoming the final straw for many owners and top earners who were already considering leaving

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Additionally, New York state had a net loss of $14 billion in net adjusted income due to taxpayers leaving between 2021 and 2022, according to the Tax Foundation and IRS data (quite telling)

Furthermore, 4 billion in 2019, according to data from the New York City comptroller

Moreover, 4 million, according to Altrata (fascinating analysis)

There are now over 33,000 New Yorkers worth $30 million or more, nearly double that of Miami, according to Altrata

However, Conversely, "New York remains a powerful magnet for the wealthy, offering a blend of luxury consumption, vibrant culture, high-quality education and lifestyle cachet, with the borough of Manhattan the epicenter of ultra-prime real estate," said a report from Altrata and REALM, considering recent developments

However, Demand for pricey luxury apartments in New York also shows no signs of slowing, even after Mamdani's win in the June 24 primary

There were 64 contracts signed between June 23 and July 13 for apartments priced over $4 million, up 13% over last year, with a sales total of more more than $555 million in sales, according to Olshan Realty

Among the signed contracts was a $35 million, three-bedroom spread on Fifth Avenue that was first listed in December. "The luxury market is on pace for one of its best years," said Donna Olshan, of Olshan Realty, who also cautioned that any potential Mamdani-related weakness could show up in the Fall

While the city lost a net 5,000 households earning $1 million or more during the pandemic, their ranks have grown from 30,400 in 2019 to 34,127 in 2022, the period available, according to the Fiscal Policy Institute

Nathan Gusdorf, executive director of the Fiscal Policy Institute, said the narrative of wealth flight from New York is fed in part by the media, which highlights a small number of high-file billionaires who move from New York to Florida, given the current landscape

New York's powerful economy, fueled by the financial services industry, continues to duce more new millionaires than it loses. "We do not have a fixed population of millionaires that just declines whenever one of them leaves," Gusdorf said. "The city regenerates that lost millionaire population. "Even if Mamdani were to win the mayorship in November and raise taxes, the direct impact on wealth flight may be more limited than many expect

When the New York wealthy do move, they have most often oved to other high-tax states New Jersey, Connecticut or California – suggesting lifestyle rather than taxes are the driver. "There's a strong indication that higher tax rates at the state level imposed on the top earners are not having real behavioral effects," Gusdorf said

Others, however, say taxes have outsized importance for the wealthy, ven by the sweeping population moves in recent years from high-tax to low- or no-tax states Florida and Texas, in today's market environment

In contrast, A study by the California Center for Jobs and the Economy described a "taxodus," or net loss of $5. 3 billion in personal income tax, from high earners who left after a 2016 extension of higher taxes on the wealthy. "High tax rates do lead to outmigration and lower income growth," Walczak said

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