Monterey classic car auctions kick off, and sales expectations are tepid

The sales total is estimated to come in between $367 million and $409 million, according to Hagerty

This year there's only one – the fewest in over a decade

The average sale price has dropped to $473,000 this year from $477,000 last year."Pebble Beach is the annual health check on the market," said Simon Kidston, a classic car advisor and dealer. "Everybody waits to see what happens at Pebble Beach before committing to a major decision the rest of the year." the art market and other types of collectibles, classic cars have been in slow decline since the pandemic rally in 2021 and 2022

Collectibles prices are down 2.7% over the past 12 months, according to the Knight Frank Luxury Investment Index

Some also point to a surging stock market for the past three years, which makes collectibles relatively less attractive

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Yet experts say the biggest reason for the classic car slowdown is a generational shift

Baby boomers, who have powered the classic car market for decades, are aging out or downsizing

The new generation of millennials and Gen Zers, who are coming into wealth and collecting, want newer and fewer collectible cars

The shift is expected to accelerate as an estimated $100 trillion is passed from older to younger generations, giving fuel to the new breed of collector."It's a big rotation," said McKeel Hagerty, CEO of Hagerty, the classic car insurance, auction and events company. "Some of the older-guard collectors are framing it, 'The market is soft at the top end.' But here's a lot of depth in this market

It's just rotating to younger buyers and newer cars."That rotation has left the market for 1950s and 1960s cars with oversupply and falling prices

Many baby boomers are trying to their garages and sell, while others are passing their cars on to their kids, who often don't the same passion.Gooding & Co. is selling three Ferrari 250 GT California Spiders this week, including the most expensive lot of the week, a 1961 250 GT SWB California Spider with an alloy body and original hardtop estimated at over $20 million. "Cal Spiders," as they're known, were made famous in the movie "Ferris Bueller's Day Off," have long been a rare and special sighting at auctions

Seeing three at the same auction series is highly unusual.Kidston said the alloy body Cal Spider would have ly fetched $25 million to $30 million a few years ago."It's one of the great road cars of all time," he said. "It has intrinsic value, with venance, sophistication, beauty and usability."Prices and demand for many cars that are over 50 years old are down as much as 20% to 30% from the peaks, dealers and brokers say."It's just the question of what s the market, and can their egos handle it," Hagerty said. "If it's an $18 million car, and it becomes a $13 million car, it's still a multimillion-dollar car, which is pretty amazing."Hagerty said that falling prices have driven more sales to the private market, directly between buyer and seller, rather than to the auctions

Sellers with minent cars don't want their discounted sales prices to be public, so they opt to sell privately."That way nobody has to feel embarrassed," Hagerty said. "We're seeing a surprisingly large amount of private sales

Sometimes a car will hit the market and sell in a couple of hours and close by the end of the day."At the same time, auctions of newer super cars are skyrocketing

They also prefer cars that are more affordable and practical

A 1989 Ruf CTR "Yellowbird" sold in March for a record $6 million at Gooding & Co. at the Amelia Island sales.Two years ago, the average model year of the cars being sold at Pebble was 1964

This year it's 1974, which still underestimates the bar-bell distribution of cars from the 1950s at one end and the 1980s and 1990s cars at the other.Sales of modern supercars — defined as those from 1975 or later – will ly overtake sales of so-called "Enzo-era" Ferraris (made before 1988) at Monterey for the first time, according to Hagerty.Some experts even worry that the modern supercar segment has become over-inflated and speculative. momentum trades in the stock market, which retail investors buy on the basic premise that someone else will buy it for more, modern supercars seem to be rising indiscriminately."If it's all solely reduced to what is more saleable, then collecting becomes very superficial," Kidston said. "I don't believe collecting should be ruled by

You should keep an eye on the financial implications of what you buy

But it should not be the be-all and end-all

Otherwise it just becomes bitcoin."Here are the top lots from Monterey Car Week, compiled by Hagerty:1. 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider CompetizioneSold by Gooding & Co., estimated at more than $20 millionA 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider Competizione up for auction at Monterey Car Week.Mathieu Heurtault | Courtesy of Gooding & Co.2. 1993 Ferrari F40 LMSold by RM Sotheby's, estimated at $8.5 million to $9.5 millionA 1993 Ferrari F40 LM up for auction at Monterey Car Week.Courtesy of RM Sotheby's3. (tied) 1973 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona CompetizioneSold by Gooding & Co., estimated at $8 million to $10 millionA 1973 Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona Competizione up for auction at Monterey Car Week.Mathieu Heurtault | Courtesy of Gooding & Co.3. (tied) 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California SpiderSold by Gooding & Co., estimated at $8 million to $10 millionA 1961 Ferrari 250 GT SWB California Spider up for auction at Monterey Car Week.Mathieu Heurtault | Courtesy of Gooding & Co.4. 1957 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider totipoSold by Gooding & Co., estimated at $7.5 million to $9 millionA 1957 Ferrari 250 GT LWB California Spider totipo up for auction at Monterey Car Week.Mathieu Heurtault | Courtesy of Gooding & Co.5. 2020 Bugatti DivoSold by Bonhams, estimated at $7 million to $9 millionA 2020 Bugatti Divo up for auction at Monterey Car Week.Courtesy of Bonhams