Millions of Retirees Might Not Receive Any Noticeable Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) in 2026
Key Takeaways
As medical costs climb faster than ever, many seniors are being left without net benefit bumps.
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July 24, 2025
05:23 AM
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Re suggests that As medical costs climb faster than ever, many seniors are being left without net benefit bumps
Millions of retirees rely on the annual Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, to ensure their income keeps up with rising expenses in retirement
As inflation has soared over the last few years, the importance of the annual bump in benefits has only increased
But some seniors may be sorely disappointed by their checks in 2026
Furthermore, 6 million retirees could see no increase in their monthly benefits checks at all, considering recent developments
Moreover, Making matters worse, these are seniors who could ly benefit most from an increase in their benefits
Here's what retirees need to know (an important development)
Image source: Getty Images
What goes into a Social Security check
Additionally, When the government sends you your Social Security check each month, there's a good chance it doesn't match the amount of your actual benefit on your Social Security statement exactly (quite telling)
That's because the government might withhold some of that benefit for various items (which is quite significant)
If you request the government withholds income taxes from your benefits, you'll see a smaller amount each month (something worth watching), given the current landscape
Additionally, the government might withhold some benefits due to the retirement earnings test, if you're still working before reaching full retirement age
The government may also garnish your monthly benefits if it accidentally overpaid you in a prior year, in light of current trends
On the other hand, Or if you have other federal debts, those will come out of your Social Security benefits before you see it hit your bank account (quite telling)
Conversely, One of the most common things withheld from your Social Security benefits are Medicare premium payments
The government automatically enrolls anyone collecting Social Security over age 65 in the government health insurance gram
And it collects the premiums straight from your monthly check
The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is responsible for setting the premium pricing
It takes into account the rising cost of viding healthcare, how much its services are utilized, and also makes adjustments to maintain the financial stability of the gram, given the current landscape
Furthermore, Over the last few years, seniors have seen their Medicare Part B premiums increase substantially as medical costs rise faster than average inflation
For 2025, the premiums increased 5 (an important development)
Moreover, 9% to $185 per month (higher if you exceeded certain income limits)
Next year the premium price increase could be even higher and that could mean bad news for many seniors looking forward to a nice increase in their monthly Social Security benefits check
However, The challenge for millions of seniors When Medicare Part B premiums rise faster than the annual cost-of-living adjustment, that can mean some retirees on Medicare don't see any increase in their Social Security benefits at all
That number is usually small, but it could be well into the millions next year (this bears monitoring)
That's because the Board of Trustees in charge of Medicare and Medicaid estimate that next year's Medicare Part B premium will climb $21. 20 to $206
That's an 11, given current economic conditions. 5% increase
Moreover, Independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson estimates next year's COLA will be 2. 7% based on the most recent data available
That's in line with the Social Security Board of Trustees' estimate, but slightly more than The Senior Citizens League's 2. 6% estimate
Johnson points out the disparity in the COLA and the increase in Medicare premium pricing could lead to anyone collecting $800 or less in benefits to see no increase in their monthly checks each month
The increase in Medicare premiums will wipe out the COLA for those retirees
Based on data from the most recent Social Security annual supplement, there were over 3. 6 million people age 65 or older collecting Social Security benefits of $800 or less as of December 2023, in today's market environment
This demonstrates that vast majority of those seniors are ly enrolled in Medicare just the rest of the senior population, in light of current trends
Additionally, At the very least, those retirees don't have to worry a decrease in their monthly check
The hold harmless vision means the increase in Medicare premiums is capped by the actual dollar amount of their COLA
However, this puts more pressure on the financial stability of the gram since Medicare won't collect full premiums from everyone, and could lead to bigger price hikes in the future, considering recent developments
Moreover, The Author Adam Levy is a contributing Motley Fool Stock Market Analyst focused on the impact of policy, economic, and consumer trends on both personal finance – including Social Security and retirement savings – and across information nology, consumer goods, and financial companies
At the same time, Prior to The Motley Fool, Adam was a Financial Advisor at Edward Jones and a contributing writer at InvestorPlace
Com He studied Finance and Electrical Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University
On the other hand, In his spare time, Adam loves to visit interesting cocktail bars all around the world (this bears monitoring)
TMFnCaffeine X @admlvy The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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