Markets are usually bubbly in Jackson Hole week. This year that might not happen

Economy·Federal Reserve are usually bubbly in Jackson Hole week

This year that might not happenBy Eleanor PringleBy Eleanor PringleReporterEleanor PringleReporterEleanor Pringle is an award-winning reporter at Fortune covering news, the economy, and personal finance

Eleanor previously worked as a correspondent and news editor in regional news in the U.K

She her journalism training with the Press Association after earning a degree from the University of East Anglia.SEE FULL BIO Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is ly to move later this week

Andrew Harnik/Getty Images are treading water ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with mixed data clouding hopes for a September Fed rate cut

Softer labor reports clash with hotter inflation readings, leaving analysts split

Jeremy Siegel argues easing is warranted, while Bank of America expects Powell to strike a cautious tone that could dampen dovish bets

The week of the Jackson Hole symposium usually offers many things the market can get excited : Hints where monetary policy may be going, the Fed’s outlook on the economy, and any significant changes to the decision-making cess which may have longer-term impacts on rates

This week, stocks can’t quite muster the courage to bounce courtesy of mixed headwinds in key data

The trajectory in the has generally been upwards around the time of the summit hosted by the Kansas City Fed

This year are showing weaker signs

Even as European leaders descend on Washington D.C. this week to back Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky in his fight against Russia, are still looking through the geo and are focussing on the monetary policy headlines to come at the end of the week. “We suspect Powell will not sound as dovish as market pricing,” Bank of America chimed in a note to clients this morning. “Powell’s s will ly be more balanced than at the July FOMC meeting given the July labor report remind upside risks to the unemployment rate.” “We suspect the knee-jerk Jackson Hole reaction will be different in ’25 vs for most of Powell’s tenure

The bigger driver of the near-term Fed policy outlook will ly be the Sept 5 employment report, which occurs 2 weeks after Jackson Hole,” the note continued

Previous hopes that Jackson Hole would vide the platform for a signal of rate cuts are waning by the day

The wings of dovish speculators have been tipped by the ducer price index (PPI) which came in slightly hotter than expected, and suggested that tariff-related inflation is trickling through to and may soon land in the laps of consumers

That counters the downside of the Bureau of Labor Statistics surprise and its unwelcome revisions to the employment landscape

The Labor Department reported payrolls grew by just 73,000 last month, well below forecasts for 100,000

But downward revisions for prior months alarmed investors even more, revealing that the labor market came to a near standstill over the spring

Less and less convinced Despite a number of individuals on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) suggesting they would to see a cut in the days ing the labor market report, analysts are still hedging some of their bets on a cut (and increased economic activity). “We received a slew of economic data this past week, but the true market mover lies ahead this Friday: Chair Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole address,” wrote Wharton’s fessor Jeremy Siegel this week

Writing for WisdomTree, where he is senior economist, Siegel added: “While inflation data surprised in parts—especially the PPI with its sharp jump in portfolio management fees—the underlying story remains that price pressures are not accelerating in the areas that the Fed watches most closely. “In fact, some minent economists lowered their PCE inflation estimate by five basis points, despite the headline noise

That is a telling sign

It suggests that core inflation, when adjusted for statistical anomalies, is broadly in line with the Fed’s path toward easing.” Siegel has long lobbied for rates to come down, saying monetary policy has been overly restrictive given the health of the economy

He has also argued, many, that the Fed needs to “see through” tariff-related inflation as a one-off hike as opposed to a fundamental shift in the economy. “We’ll get another jobs report and inflation before the Fed’s September 17 meeting, but this Friday’s Jackson Hole speech will set the tone,” Siegel added. “If Powell acknowledges the cooling in labor and the benign trend in core PCE, it opens the door for a 25-basis-point cut

Explore this year's list.