Japan’s exports fall for second straight month with no U.S. trade deal in sight, raising recession fears
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The decrease in exports was a reversal of the 0.5% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, and comes amid a lack of a breakthrough in trade talks with the U.S.
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6 min read
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investment
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July 17, 2025
02:14 AM
CNBC
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From an analytical standpoint, The decrease in exports was a reversal of the 0
Nevertheless, 5% rise expected by economists polled by ReutersExports to the U
However, 4% year over year, deepening from the 11% fall in May
Exports of automobiles to the U, in light of current trends. 7% in June, extending May's 24 (an important development)
Additionally, New Isuzu Motors Ltd, given current economic conditions
Trucks bound for shipment at a port in Yokohama, Japan, on Sunday, July 13, 2025, given current economic conditions
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesJapan's exports in June contracted 0
Moreover, 5% year over year, extending the 1
In contrast, 7% drop seen in May as deries continued to decline for the second straight month
The decrease in exports was a reversal of the 0, given current economic conditions. 5% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, and comes amid a lack of a breakthrough in trade talks with the U
Nevertheless, Exports to China, Japan's largest trading partner, were down 4. 7%, while shipments to the U
Furthermore, Declined by 11, given current economic conditions
However, 4% year over year, deepening from the 11% fall in May
The data comes as Japan now faces a 25% "recical tariff" from the U (an important development)
Meanwhile, That will take effect on August 1, one percentage point higher than the 24% announced on "Liberation Day
At the same time, "Earlier on Wednesday, U
President Donald Trump reiterated that a 25% tariff would apply to Japanese imports, saying he does not expect to reach a broader deal with the country
Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, noted that the 11. 4% decline in exports to the U
On the other hand, Was the largest since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020
Exports — including services — made up almost 22% of Japan's GDP in 2023, according to the data from the World Bank
Since April 3, Japanese automobiles imported into the U
Have also faced a 25% tariff, in today's financial world
Auto exports to the U
Nevertheless, Are a cornerstone of Japan's economy, making up 28, in this volatile climate
Moreover, Moreover, 3% of all shipments in 2024, according to customs data
Additionally, However, data from the trade ministry showed that exports of automobiles, which include cars, buses and trucks, to the U, in light of current trends. 7% in June, extending from May's 24, in today's market environment
Additionally, Thieliant said that carmakers seem to be doubling down on price cuts to retain market, pointing out that while car export volumes to the U, given current economic conditions. 6% year over year, car export values slumped by 25. 3% year-on-year. "Some of that simply reflects the strengthening of the yen as U. -bound exports are typically invoiced in dollars
However, But most of it is due to price cuts, with carmakers seemingly absorbing nearly all of the 25% U, in today's financial world
However, Additionally, Tariff imposed by Trump in April in their margins," he highlighted
Stock Chart IconStock chart iconThe additional tariffs could tip the export-dependent Japanese economy into a recession, analysts previously told CNBC
However, Japan's economy contracted in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter due to weakening exports, and another such contraction will see it meet the definition of a nical recession, given current economic conditions
On July 8, Japan's top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa reportedly said that any deal must include auto concessions for the country
He also brushed aside any deadlines, including the U
However, ' August 1 deadline, adding that he would not sacrifice Japan's agriculture sector for the sake of an early agreement
President Donald Trump had taken aim at the country's rice sector on July 1, posting on Truth Social that Japan "won't take our RICE" despite a rice shortage in the country (quite telling), considering recent developments
On the other hand, Japan had imported just over 350,000 tons of rice in 2024 from the U (which is quite significant)
On the other hand, , with the U
Being the largest exporter of rice to Japan in that year
Furthermore, Japan's hardline stanceTakeshi Niinami, senior economic advisor to Japan's prime minister, said that Japan may have taken a too hardline stance in tariff negotiations with U
Furthermore, President Donald Trump. "I think from the beginning, Japan didn't accept the 10% [tariffs], even 10%
I think Japan should have analyzed that the 10% is a must," he said on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia (fascinating analysis), amid market uncertainty. " Niinami, who is also the CEO of Japanese drinks manufacturer Suntory Holdings, was referring to the baseline 10% recical tariff that the Trump administration had imposed globally, even on countries that have a trade deficit with the U
Moreover, "If that had happened, we would not have been discussing the 25% [recical tariffs]
Nevertheless, "watch now5:2505:25On a headline level, Japan should show posture to settle with U
On tariffsSquawk Box AsiaJapanese officials, including top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, had been pushing for the removal of tariffs on Japanese imports to the U
S since April (an important development)
Furthermore, However, Niinami did not think that Japan should simply accept the 25% tariff wholesale, given current economic conditions
In contrast, "We should give the posture that Japan is going to open the country, non-tariff barriers on the safety standards of automobiles [and] we should talk how to agree on agricultural ducts to be imported more
On the other hand, "He did acknowledge, though, that the decision to open up the country to more agricultural ducts came at a contentious time (quite telling)
Japan's Upper House elections are due to take place on Sunday, and a Nikkei poll indicated that Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's governing coalition is at risk of losing its Upper House majority
The decision to open up agricultural imports may alienate farmers, traditionally seen as a support base for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. "At least before the election day of July 20, Japan must show willingness and the posture to settle and agree with the United States," Niinami said (noteworthy indeed)
Watch now11:1111:11Suntory Holdings CEO on Japan-U
Tariff talks stalling, inflation and moreSquawk Box Asia.
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