Is Pfizer Stock a Yield Trap?
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When it comes to your hard-earned money, you have a lot of choices where to spend it. If your physician prescribes a new branded drug, though, you and your insurance...
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July 3, 2025
04:21 AM
The Motley Fool
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When it comes to your hard-earned money, you have a lot of choices where to spend it
If your physician prescribes a new branded drug, though, you and your insurance company have few options
Patent-tected exclusivity is the reason pharmaceutical stocks are known for dering reliably growing dividend payments
Unfortunately, some of Pfizer's (PFE -0. 55%) most important patents are expiring soon
S of Pfizer have been beaten down 60% from their previous peak in 2021
The price is way down, but the company has raised its dividend payout every year since 2009
At its beaten-down price, the stock offers an enormous 7
Image source: Getty Images
At recent prices, the yield you receive from Pfizer is more than four times the amount you'd receive from the average dividend payer in the S&P 500
If it can't maintain its payout-raising streak, though, it won't help you retire any faster than buying a simple index fund that tracks the benchmark index
Pfizer's built from many pieces that are moving in opposite directions
To make sure this stock isn't a yield trap destined to slash its dividend payout in the near term, let's weigh the good news against the bad
Why Pfizer stock is way down Patent-tected market exclusivity is a lot shorter for drugs than for most other forms of intellectual perty
Typically, generic competition begins hammering sales of branded drugs a little over a decade after they earn their first marketing apvals from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
This January, Pfizer's CEO, Albert Bourla, warned investors that a loss of exclusivity (LOE) wave will reduce annual revenue by $17 billion to $18 billion over the next several years
The losses are expected to mostly begin in 2026 and end in 2028
The biggest LOE to hit Pfizer will be Eliquis, an oral blood thinner that it in partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb
Eliquis sales fell slightly in the first quarter, but it's still responsible for 14% of Pfizer's total revenue
Generic competition is expected to begin next year in the EU, and in 2028 for the U
Sales of some of the ducts expected to lose ground to generics over the next few years are already getting hammered by similar drugs from competitors
For example, first-quarter sales of Ibrance, a breast cancer treatment, fell by 7% year over year
Kisqali, a similar drug from Novartis recently apved to treat early stage breast cancer patients, grew sales by 52% over the same period
Pfizer's biggest growth driver at the moment, Vyndaqel, is apved to treat a relatively rare heart condition caused by unraveling transthyretin (TTR) tein fragments
Unfortunately for Pfizer, it's no longer the only TTR stabilizer available
Attruby from BridgeBio Pharma became the second apved treatment that stabilizes TTR last November, and is expected to pressure Vyndaqel sales
How Pfizer could overcome upcoming patent cliffs With total revenue that reached $62. 5 billion over the trailing 12 months, filling in a hole that could grow to $18 billion wide won't be easy
Fortunately, this isn't Pfizer's first patent cliff
In 2009, one drug, Lipitor, was responsible for 23% of Pfizer's total revenue
Lipitor sales crumbled when it lost exclusivity in 2011, but that didn't stop Pfizer from continuing an annual dividend payout raising streak that was just a couple of years old at the time
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Pfizer raked in a larger fit than any pharmaceutical company in history
It reinvested much of that windfall into new ducts
By 2030, management expects those ducts to der a combined $20 billion in annual revenue
Pfizer's expectations are ambitious, but its pipeline has been extremely ductive
In 2023, the FDA apved nine new drugs from Pfizer
Last year, the agency granted more than a dozen apvals to new and already marketed treatments
In 2023, Pfizer spent around $43 billion on Seagen, a cancer drug specialist that used to outsource the manufacturing of its ducts
Manufacturing Seagen's ducts directly gives Pfizer an opportunity for margin expansion
PFE Gross fit Margin data by YCharts If gross margins that contracted in recent years expand back above 80%, and new duct launches achieve $20 billion in annual sales, Pfizer will have no trouble meeting and raising its dividend commitment in the decade ahead
Not a yield trap Continued payout raises at a modest pace are a long way from guaranteed
That said, Pfizer's enormous pipeline of upcoming and recently launched treatments is well equipped to overcome upcoming patent cliffs and maintain its dividend-raising streak
Before you fill your portfolio with Pfizer stock, it's important to remember that drug launches are highly unpredictable
If the company can't hit its targets, a dividend reduction that lowers your yield on cost down to 3% or 4% is also a possibility
Odds of continued payout bumps seem stronger
Either way, folks who buy now have a great chance to come out ahead if they hold the stock a decade or longer
Cory Renauer has no position in any of the stocks mentioned
The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bristol Myers Squibb and Pfizer
The Motley Fool recommends BridgeBio Pharma
The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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