‘I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are’: Back-to-school shopping turns into China tariff-dodging exercise
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‘I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are’: Back-to-school shopping turns into China tariff-dodging exercise

August 13, 2025
08:27 PM
7 min read
AI Enhanced
economymoneyconsumer discretionaryretailmarket cyclesseasonal analysispolicy

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A lot of the backpacks, lined paper, glue sticks — and Ticonderoga pencils — sold in the U.S. are made in China, whose products were subjected to a 145% tariff in the spring.

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investment

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August 13, 2025

08:27 PM

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economymoneyconsumer discretionaryretailmarket cyclesseasonal analysispolicy

Economy·Tariffs and trade‘I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are’: Back-to-school shopping turns into China tariff-dodging exerciseBy Anne D'InnocenzioBy The Associated PressBy Anne D'InnocenzioBy The Associated Press Dora Diaz, left, and her daughter Fernanda Diaz, 14, shops for school supplies at a Walmart in Dallas, Texas, Tuesday, Aug. 12, 2025

AP Photo/LM OteroFeeling nostalgic for the days when going back to school meant picking out fresh notebooks, pencils and colored markers at a local drugstore or stationary shop? The annual ritual is both easier and more complicated for today’s students

Big retail chains generate online lists of school supplies for customers who type in their zip codes, then choose a school and a grade level

One click and they are ready to check out

Some schools also offer busy parents a one-stop shop by partnering with vendors that sell premade kits with binders, index cards, pens and other needed items

Yet for all the time-saving options, many families begin their back-to-school shopping months before Labor Day, ing around for the best deals and making purchases tied to summer sales

This year, the possibility of price increases from new U.S. tariffs on imports motivated more shoppers to get a jump start on replacing and refilling school backpacks, according to retail analysts

Retail and nology consulting company Coresight Re estimates that back-to-school spending from June through August will reach $33.3 billion in the U.S., a 3.3% increase from the same three-month period a year ago

The company predicted families would complete 60% of their shopping before August to avoid extra costs from tariffs. “Consumers are of the mindset where they’re being very strategic and conscientious around price fluctuations, so for back to school, it mpts them to shop even earlier,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, the re division of software company Adobe Inc

Getting a head start Miami resident Jacqueline Agudelo, 39, was one of the early birds who started shopping for school supplies in June because she wanted to get ahead of possible price increases from new U.S. tariffs on imported ducts

The teacher’s supply list for her 5-year-old son, who started kindergarten earlier this month, mandated specific classroom items in big quantities

Agudelo said her shopping list included 15 boxes of Crayola crayons, Lysol wipes and five boxes of Ticonderoga brand pencils, all sharpened

Agudelo said she spent $160 after finding plenty of bargains online and in stores, including the crayons at half off, but found the experience stressful. “I am overwhelmed by the need to stay on top of where the deals are as shopping has become more expensive over the years,” she said

A lot of the backpacks, lined paper, glue sticks — and Ticonderoga pencils — sold in the U.S. are made in China, whose ducts were subjected to a 145% tariff in the spring

Under the agreement between the countries, general merchandise from China is taxed at a 30% rate when it enters the U.S

Many companies accelerated shipments from China early in the year, stockpiling inventory at pre-tariff prices

Some predicted consumers would encounter higher prices time for back-to-school shopping

Although government data showed consumer prices rose 2.7% last month from a year earlier, strategic discounting by major retailers may have muted any sticker shock for customers seeking school supplies

Backpacks and lunchboxes, for example, had discounts as deep as 12.1% during Amazon’s Prime Day sales and competing online sales at Target and Walmart in early July, Adobe Insights said

Throughout the summer, some of the biggest chains have advertised selective price freezes to hold onto customers

Walmart is moting a back-to-school deal that includes 14 supplies plus a backpack for $16, the lowest price in six years, company spokesperson Leigh Stidham said

Target said in June that it would maintain its 2024 prices on 20 key back-to-school items that together cost less than $20

An analysis consumer data vider Numerator prepared for The Associated Press showed the retail cost of 48 ducts a family with two school age children might need — two lunchboxes, two scientific calculators, a pair of boy’s shoes — averaged $272 in July, or $3 less than the same month last year

Digital natives in the classroom Numerator, which tracks U.S. retail prices through sales receipts, online account activity and other information from 200,000 shoppers, reported last year that households were buying fewer notebooks, book covers, writing instruments and other familiar staples as students did more of their work on computers

The transition does not mean students no longer have to stock up on plastic folders, highlighters and erasers, or that parents are spending less to equip their children for class

Accounting and consulting firm Deloitte estimates that traditional school supplies will account for more than $7 billion of the $31 billion it expects U.S. parents to put toward back-to-school shopping

Shopping habits also are evolving

TeacherLists, an online platform where individual schools and teachers can upload their supply lists and parents can for them, was launched in 2012 to reduce the need for paper lists

It now has more than 2 million lists from 70,000 schools

Users have the option of clicking on an icon that populates an online shopping cart at participating retail chains

Some retailers also license the data for use on their websites and in their stores, said Dyanne Griffin, the architect and vice president of TeacherLists

The typical number of items teacher request has remained fairly steady at around 17 since the end of the coronavirus pandemic, Griffin said. “The new items that had come on the list, you know, in the last four or five years are more the side

Everybody needs headphones or earbuds, that type of thing, maybe a mouse,” she said

She’s also noticed a lot of schools requiring backpacks and pencil pouches so the gear can’t be used to stow guns

Enter artificial intelligence For consumers who to re their options before they buy, nology and retail companies have introduced generative AI tools to help them find and compare ducts

Rufus, the AI-powered shopping assistant that Amazon launched last year, is now joined by Sparky, an app-only feature that Walmart shoppers can use to get age-specific duct recommendations and other information in response to their questions

Just over a quarter of U.S. adults say they use AI for shopping, which is considerably lower than the number who say they use AI for tasks such as ing for information or brainstorming, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Re poll in July

Some traditions remain Before the pandemic turned a lot more people into online shoppers, schools and local Parent Teacher Associations embraced the idea of making back-to-school shopping easier by ordering ready-made bundles of teacher- supplies

An extra fee on the price helped raise money for the school

Market data from Edukit, a supplier of school supply kits owned by TeachersList parent company School Family Media, shows that 40% of parents end up buying the boxes, meaning the other 60% need to shop on their own, Griffin said

She noted that parents typically must commit no later than June to secure a bundle, which focus on essentials notebooks and crayons

Agudelo said her son’s school offered a box for $190 that focused on basics crayons and notebooks but didn’t include a backpack

She decided to pass and shop around for the best prices

She also d bringing her son along for the shopping trips. “There’s that sense of getting him mentally prepared for the school year,” Agudelo said. “The box takes away from that.” Introducing the 2025 Fortune Global 500, the definitive ranking of the biggest companies in the world

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