
How AI darling Palantir became the S&P 500’s best and worst stock of 2025, climbing 144% before shedding value in 6 straight sessions
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Over $73 billion has been wiped off high-flying Palantir's market cap in recent days.
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August 21, 2025
03:53 PM
Fortune
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Big ·Fortune IntelligenceHow AI darling Palantir became the S&P 500’s best and worst stock of 2025, climbing 144% before shedding value in 6 straight sessionsBy Nick LichtenbergBy Nick LichtenbergFortune Intelligence EditorNick LichtenbergFortune Intelligence EditorNick Lichtenberg is Fortune Intelligence editor and was formerly Fortune's executive editor of global news.SEE FULL BIO Palantir nologies CEO Alex Karp.ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty ImagesPalantir nologies has created one of the most dramatic stories on Wall Street this year, defying conventional investment narratives
In 2025, it became the top-performing stock in the S&P 500, surging over 106% and at points climbing 144% from the start of the year—outpacing even AI heavyweights Nvidia
This explosive growth was fueled by its robust financial performance, notching its first billion-dollar quarter and momentum from government and commercial AI contracts
However, Palantir’s meteoric rise has been ed by a brutal reversal
Over the last six trading sessions, Palantir s plunged more than 17%, wiping out $73 billion in market capitalization and marking the largest drop since April
This tumble handed short sellers $1.6 billion in fits, Bloomberg reported, citing data from S3 Partners. (That figure is still dwarfed by the $4.5 billion paper losses that shorts racked up earlier in the year, S3 says.) In recent days, Palantir has also been the worst performer in the S&P 500, illustrating an extreme swing from hero to villain in the market
The vicious short-seller report Palantir’s dramatic stock moves ed fresh fire from short sellers, particularly Citron Re, led by Andrew Left
In a scathing report, Citron argued that Palantir’s stock was detached from its fundamentals and sound analysis
It included a caricature of Palantir CEO Alex Karp in the royal court of OpenAI, titled “Your highness’s multiple,” laying out the case for Palantir having much farther to fall
Citron’s thesis is that OpenAI, widely recognized as the leader in AI, is to receive a $500 billion valuation with jected revenue of $29.6 billion in 2026, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of nearly 17
By contrast, Palantir is forecasted to der $5.6 billion revenue in 2026
Applying OpenAI’s valuation multiple to Palantir would yield a stock price of just $40. (Citron showed their math, calculating that $5.6 billion multiplied by 17 would shoot up to a roughly $95 billion market cap, divided by 2.37 billion s outstanding, yielding a $40-per- valuation.) “It should be noted,” Citron writes, “that even at a 17x sales multiple, OpenAI has the highest multiple of any scaled SaaS stock in the world, and that number in itself is extreme
This means that at $40, PLTR would still be expensive.” Short sellers Left insist that Palantir’s isn’t as scalable or as subscription-based as Wall Street prefers, in stark contrast to OpenAI
Palantir’s dependence on government deals introduces uncertainty and volatility, leading Citron to claim that the stock is unjustifiably expensive even after recent losses. “OpenAI is creating a flywheel that Palantir lacks,” the report says, adding that the widening moat and cycle of growth, data, and scale is “reminiscent of Google in its prime.” Palantir, on the other hand, is more a defense contractor, with real “stickiness,” but growth hinging on slow, customized contracts that don’t compound. “OpenAI is a self-reinforcing growth engine, while Palantir is essentially locked-in consulting wrapped in software.” Citron contrasted a chart of Palantir’s impressive, steady revenue growth with OpenAI’s skyrocketing results
Best of times, worst of times Palantir’s story in 2025 is a case study in market euphoria versus valuation reality
Fueled by speculative optimism AI, its price rapidly baked in years of expected growth
But as fit-taking sets in, momentum evaporates, and critical reports highlight the mismatch between price and fundamental value, fortunes can reverse just as quickly
Even now, contrarian trading remains high—if Palantir rebounds, short interest is expected to return as investors closely watch future earnings, contract renewals, and the sustainability of its growth strategy
This extraordinary volatility means that Palantir, in 2025, is the top-performing and worst-performing stock—at the same time
Palantir’s swings also come against the backdrop of a wider “ sell-off” in ing reports that the AI revolution isn’t materializing as planned
A sweeping MIT report found that despite tens of billions of investment, 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman himself rattled by using the B-word: bubble
Citron remarked with interest: “This morning, we read that Sam Altman stated the AI market is in a bubble
Altman isn’t shorting Palantir—he’s simply telling the truth
The market is frothy, and no one knows it better than the man who built the most valuable AI company in the world.” Palantir did not immediately respond to a request for
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft
An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing
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