From the 'Big Stay' to a 'no-hire, no-fire' freeze, labor markets are seeing sizable shifts

Casarsaguru | E+ | Getty ImagesMillions of workers left their jobs during the "Great Resignation" of the Covid-19 pandemic, but economic insecurity and uncertainty have once more turned the tides of the labor market toward the "Great Stay."Economists coined the term to refer to fewer employees leaving jobs, and fewer employers hiring or firing new workers."We had this 'Great Resignation' just a couple of years ago," Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, told CNBC

But now, "workers aren't going anywhere," she noted."They've got their dream job, which is bably partly at , maybe with a big salary pickup ..

And what we actually see in the data is very low turnover, which is very unusual in the U.S.," she added."I call it the 'Great Stay.' People are staying put

And they're staying put in things IT and software development, where you would normally see a lot of turnover," she noted.watch now3:3803:38Hiring will be growth orientated and more strategic in 2025: ADP chief economistSquawk Box Europewise, Richardson said firms were putting hiring decisions on hold "because they're uncertain the road ahead, not necessarily because they're trying to reduce their headcount."Describing the trend as a "no-hire, no-fire market," Richardson said the momentum is ly slowing in terms of hiring, although initial U.S. jobless claims — a xy for layoffs — are still near historical lows."We think it's no-fire, no-layoff [environment] right now because firms are so reluctant to let people go, because it took so long in the U.S. to get them back."watch now4:2604:26We would have had a July rate cut based on the revised jobs data: Jeremy SiegelSquawk Box AsiaThe turnaround from the "Great Resignation" is dramatic: the Covid-19 pandemic the longest employment and economic expansion in U.S. history, according to the U.S

Federal Reserve to lower interest rates when it next meets in September, economists said.UK seeing similar shiftA similar trend was seen in the U.K., where the number of job vacancies rose to a record 1,172,000 over the August-October 2021 period, according to the Office for National Statistics

By the second quarter of 2022, the total number of job vacancies had reached 1,295,000, the ONS said

Fast forward to 2025 and the U.K. jobs data, released mid-August, showed the country's labor market continued to cool with job vacancies falling by 5.8% to 718,000 between May to July in 16 out of 18 industry sectors, according to the ONS.It added that "back from our Vacancy Survey suggests some firms may not be recruiting new workers or replacing workers who have left."Shoppers pass along the high street in Maidstone, UK, on Wednesday, April 16, 2025

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.K. economic inactivity rate — reflecting the number of people aged between 16-64 who are not in work and not actively looking for work — was estimated at 21% in April to June 2025, the ONS said." hiring has been continuously dropping for the past 3 years, with recent dips spurred in part by higher labour costs from tax rises and the minimum wage hike, as well as overall economic uncertainty," noted Monica George Michail, associate economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Re think tank."Meanwhile, falling inactivity and rising unemployment are increasing the supply of labour."watch now3:2903:29Economic slowdown hits UK jobs quawk Box EuropeNeil Carberry, the chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, told CNBC that Britain was also seeing a "Big Stay" trend, with firms reluctant to go on a hiring spend until they have a better understanding of the trajectory of the U.K. economy, which has been experiencing lackluster growth."The truth is, jobs are created by es, and the engine of job creation is growth ..

Unless you get in a position where they want to hire in the United Kingdom, you're not going to get anywhere," he told CNBC."On the market at the moment, it's quite odd

Permanent recruitment has been low for two or three years now, and it hasn't quite come back [since Covid-19], but es are just, , sitting there with a hand over the button

So what lots of our members say is that they can see what they're going to do, they just want a bit of confidence to do it."— CNBC's Jeff Cox and Greg Iacurci contributed reporting to this story