Fed's Goolsbee sees 'note of unease' as central bank looks to next interest rate move
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Goolsbee said a mixed bag of inflation data coupled with uncertainty over tariffs have given him pause about lowering rates.
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August 15, 2025
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watch now7:1307:13Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: I think of tariffs as having a heavy stagflationary componentSquawk BoxFederal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said Friday a mixed bag of inflation data this week coupled with lingering uncertainty over tariffs have given him some hesitation lowering interest rates.Previously, Goolsbee has spoken of a "golden path" that would combine moderating inflation and a stable labor market and lead to lower rates.But in a CNBC interview Goolsbee said he still wants to see some more convincing data before the Federal Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 16-17
Goolsbee is one of 12 FOMC voters this year.Reports this week on consumer and ducer prices "put in a note of unease" on where inflation is headed, as services prices "which are not obviously going to be transitory" are "kicking up," he said."So I feel we still need another [inflation report], at least, to figure out if we're still on the golden path," Goolsbee said during a "Squawk Box" interview.The July consumer price index was relatively in line with market forecasts, though the core reading that excludes food and energy nudged higher to 3.1%, a bit above Wall Street expectations
However, the July ducer price index, which measures wholesale items, posted a surprisingly high 0.9% monthly gain that was the largest in three years.The data is being examined particularly closely for clues the impact tariffs are having on inflation
While neither report showed significant obvious impacts, many economists believe the import duties President Donald Trump has imposed are slowly making their way into the data and will show up in coming months."It all depends on the data and what's the economic outlook
If we keep getting inflation reports [previous] ones ..
I would be very comfortable that, hey, the dust is out of the air, it looks we're still where we were, which is a strong economy with inflation coming back down," Goolsbee said."In that circumstance ... the right thing to do [is] to just bring the rates down to where we think they're going to settle," he added. "We've got to get some clarity from the numbers." are placing a near certainty that the FOMC votes to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point in September, from the current 4.25% to 4.50% level
However, there are some misgivings what happens from there, with 55% odds of another reduction in October and just a 43% bability of a third move in December, according to the CME Group's FedWatch.Don’t miss these insights from CNBC Forget Palantir
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