Fearing tariff-induced price hikes, parents are back-to-school shopping earlier than any year on record
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More than two-thirds of families started buying pencils, pens, paper, and folders in early July.
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personal finance
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August 6, 2025
02:57 PM
Fortune
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Retail·back to schoolFearing tariff-induced price hikes, parents are back-to-school shopping earlier than any year on recordBy Chris MorrisBy Chris MorrisContributing WriterChris MorrisContributing WriterChris Morris is a contributing writer at Fortune, covering everything from general news to the game and theme park industries.SEE FULL BIO An aisle dedicated to back-to-school supplies at a New York City Target store
Deb Cohn-Orbach—UCG/Universal Images Group/Getty ImagesMore families started their back-to-school shopping in early July than in the past seven years
Tariffs and inflation are being blamed for the behavioral shift
The average expenditure per student will be lower this year, but the overall totals are expected to rise slightly
Reading and ’riting are still important, but as the 2025–26 school year draws near, parents are paying more attention to the third R—’rithmetic
With tariffs looming and some (though not all) retailers warning that prices are bound to increase, back-to-school shopping began especially early this year
The National Retail Federation notes that more than two-thirds of families started buying pencils, pens, paper, and folders in early July
Some 67% of families got an early start this year, compared with 55% last year
That’s the highest number of early back-to-school shoppers since the NRF began tracking the category in 2018
And it all comes down to price. “Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores, and summer sales for savings on school essentials,” said Katherine Cullen, NRF vice president of industry and consumer insights. “As shoppers look for the best deals on clothes, notebooks, and other school-related items, retailers are highly focused on affordability and making the shopping experience as seamless as possible.” To put that 67% statistic into perspective: In 2019, only 44% of parents started looking for school supplies and clothes that early
It’s worth noting that most schools have not issued their lists of which items are required at that time of year
Families with students in elementary through high school plan to spend an average of $858.07 on clothing, shoes, school supplies, and electronics this year
That’s less than the $874.68 they spent in 2024
Overall spending is expected to be higher, however, jumping from $38.8 billion to $39.4 billion as more consumers will be buying supplies
That doesn’t extend to lower-income families, though
The NRF says those households are pulling back in all back-to-school spending because of economic uncertainty
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