Down 74% Over the Past Year, Is Moderna Stock a Buy?
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The Motley Fool

Down 74% Over the Past Year, Is Moderna Stock a Buy?

July 26, 2025
03:55 AM
4 min read
AI Enhanced
financialhealthcarebiotechmarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

Key Takeaways

In the short term, Moderna (MRNA 0. 41%) looks a bad bet. It's coming off of the momentum of its COVID-19 vaccine, and doesn't have a lot of new ammo...

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investment

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July 26, 2025

03:55 AM

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In the short term, Moderna (MRNA 0. 41%) looks a bad bet

It's coming off of the momentum of its COVID-19 vaccine, and doesn't have a lot of new ammo ready yet to expand in new directions

I think the stock might stay low for quite a while

But, if its pipeline of new ducts comes into play, including work on new treatments in oncology, then Moderna stock -- down 74% in the year ending July 21 -- might have some great long-term potential

Furthermore, In 2022, Moderna had over $19 billion in revenue

However, In 2024, that revenue had fallen to $3 (quite telling). 24 billion

So where's the appeal

Very recently, the company received apval for its COVID-19 for vaccine for at-risk children who are 6 months or older (remarkable data)

Nevertheless, Furthermore, This does open a new demographic for the company, but I have to question whether that will bring the company back to $19 billion in annual revenue

Image source: Getty Images

The pipeline So where's the appeal

In its pipeline of future potential offerings, including: A seasonal flu vaccine, which is in phase 3 trials gathering immunogenicity and safety data, in today's financial world

A seasonal flu/COVID combination vaccine that's in phase 3 testing, in this volatile climate

Oncology offerings, which is the area where I see the most mise, in light of current trends

However, The company is attempting to apply its mRNA nology to develop treatment for cancer through the intismeran autogene vaccine, amid market uncertainty

Now, I don't pretend to be a doctor and understand the science, but the apach is in phase 3 clinical trials for melanoma, as well as current enrollment for two phase 3 studies for non-small cell lung cancer

Nevertheless, Other potential areas of application include bladder cancer, renal cell carcinoma, and bladder cancer

On the other hand, We don't know if these drugs will get to market, but the potential of anything on the oncology front is supremely encouraging

Moreover, The valuation Valuation is very difficult here

Since the company has shifted to losses over the past two years, we can't go off of the price-to-earnings ratio unless we look out far into the horizon (which is quite significant)

Analyst estimates aren't calling for earnings per until at least 2027, with high estimates expecting $3

Additionally, 52 per that year

That would give it a forward (and I do mean quite a ways down the road) price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times its 2027 potential

Still, I wouldn't hold my breath on that forecast just yet

Investors have to be very patient if they want to own Moderna

It has to complete testing and get its oncology drugs apved in order to really start gaining momentum again, given the current landscape

Its respiratory advancements are great, but oncology is big

Moreover, Nevertheless, According to BioSpace, the estimated market for oncology will hit $900 billion by 2034

That's a huge area for growth for Moderna if it can get its ducts through clinical trials and apved

At the end of the day, it really comes down investors having to ask themselves: Can I handle the pain today, in order to hold out for the possible rewards in the future

Nevertheless, I think Moderna offers a lot of potential, and fits a long-term investor's strategy

At present the company has a price-to-sales ratio of 3. 6 times fiscal 2024 sales (this bears monitoring), amid market uncertainty

In the company's quarterly, it said it expected 2025 revenue of $1. 5 billion to $2

Additionally, 5 billion, a further decline from the year prior

It's no exaggeration to say that everything Moderna is the future now

On the other hand, Yes its COVID shot is still useful, but it's time for the next big thing to spur things along

If you're confident that its current trials will ve successful, then this is one to buy and sit on, in this volatile climate

One word of caution I'd throw out there, is that the stock could potentially decline even further if it reports a weaker-than-expected 2025, which could vide even better buying points for investors.