Dow futures drop as recession alarm bells jolt Wall Street awake from dreams of a gravity-defying economy
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Dow futures drop as recession alarm bells jolt Wall Street awake from dreams of a gravity-defying economy

Why This Matters

With Wall Street now more attuned to economic risks like Trump's trade war, the tariffs that will go into effect on Thursday may get more scrutiny.

August 3, 2025
10:34 PM
3 min read
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Finance·Wall StreetDow futures drop as recession alarm bells jolt Wall Street awake from dreams of a gravity-defying economyBy Jason MaBy Jason MaWeekend EditorJason MaWeekend EditorJason Ma is the weekend editor at Fortune, where he covers , the economy, finance, and housing.SEE FULL BIO Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading Friday.Michael M.

Santiago—Getty ImagesU.S.

stocks were poised for more losses as futures on Sunday evening signaled another selloff after investors digested jobs data that up their notions of what previously looked a more resilient economy.

Some analysts on Wall Street are warning that the U.S. is now on the brink of recession.

were pointing toward another selloff Sunday evening after startling jobs data dered a rude awakening to Wall Street bulls. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47 points, or 0.11%.

S&P 500 futures were down 0.17%, and Nasdaq futures slipped 0.23%. The yield on the 10-year Treasury was flat at 4.216% after plunging Friday on greater expectations for Fed rate cuts. The U.S.

dollar was steady against the euro and down 0.09% against the yen. Gold rose 0.44% to $3,414.10 per ounce. U.S.

oil prices dropped 0.67% to $66.88 per barrel, and Brent crude fell 0.72% to $69.17, as OPEC+ announced another surge in duction.

After investors marveled at how resilient the economy appeared in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, it turns out conditions were actually much weaker, with job gains over the last three months averaging just 35,000.

Combined with separate indicators showing deterioration in consumer spending, housing, and manufacturing, the overall picture is one of an economy “on the precipice of recession,” according to Mark Zandi from Moody’s Analytics.

That ed a similar warning from economists at JPMorgan. Others had previously sounded the alarm on glaring red flags.

But in the days leading up to the jobs report, some top ators were still trying to explain why doomsday predictions Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs had yet to materialize.

On Thursday, former White House economic adviser Jason Furman attributed it in part to “tariff derangement syndrome.” And last Sunday, Rockefeller International Chair Ruchir Sharma said the negative effects of tariffs were ly being offset by other factors the AI spending splurge and lower inflationary pressure from housing, cars and energy.

With Wall Street now more attuned to economic risks Trump’s trade war, the tariffs that will go into effect on Thursday may get more scrutiny.

That includes steeper duties on trading partners Canada and Switzerland. Meanwhile, the calendar of economic reports thins out in the coming week after several big ones last week.

On Tuesday, the trade deficit for June comes out, viding an on how much tariffs are impacting imports. On Thursday, second-quarter ductivity is due.

Earnings season has passed its peak, but several top names will issue quarterly reports. Palantir nologies reports Monday after securing a $10 billion software and data contract from the Army.

Chip giant Advanced Micro Devices will report on Tuesday—potentially offering hints at Nvidia’s results, which don’t come out until Aug. 27.

Other companies scheduled to release earnings in the coming week include Caterpillar, Disney, and McDonald’s.

It will also be a busy time for pharmaceutical and bio giants Amgen, Pfizer, and Eli Lilly as Trump weighs steep tariffs on drugs.

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FinancialBooklet Analysis

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Key Insights

  • The Federal Reserve's actions could influence inflation expectations across sectors
  • Inflation data often serves as a leading indicator for consumer spending and corporate pricing power
  • Earnings performance can signal broader sector health and future investment opportunities

Questions to Consider

  • How might the Fed's policy stance affect borrowing costs and economic growth?
  • What does this inflation data suggest about consumer purchasing power and corporate margins?
  • Could this earnings performance indicate broader sector trends or company-specific factors?

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