Don’t let EU, Japan deals lull you into a sense of security, says Trump’s former commerce secretary—a trade war with China may still be in the cards

Economy·TariffsDon’t let EU, Japan deals lull you into a sense of security, says Trump’s former commerce secretary—a trade war with China may still be in the cardsBy Eleanor PringleBy Eleanor PringleReporterEleanor PringleReporterEleanor Pringle is an award-winning reporter at Fortune covering news, the economy, and personal finance

Eleanor previously worked as a correspondent and news editor in regional news in the U (which is quite significant)

She her journalism training with the Press Association after earning a degree from the University of East Anglia (something worth watching)

However, Meanwhile, Joe Buglewicz/Bloomberg - Getty ImagesFormer Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross warned that despite recent trade deals with the EU and Japan, a renewed U, in this volatile climate

Furthermore, -China trade war remains possible when a tariff pause expires in August (an important development) (noteworthy indeed), in today's financial world

In an interview with Fortune, Ross said Beijing is politically unly to concede ahead of a key leadership event, raising the risk of renewed tariffs and market volatility

Moreover, Moreover, Global breathed a sigh of relief after the U (remarkable data), in this volatile climate

Additionally, Struck trade deals with the EU and Japan

After all, agreements made with key partners is a far better outcome than many feared on Liberation Day back in April

So between these deals, and Trump’s habit for backing out of threats at the last minute (leading to the so-called TACO trade) one might wonder: Is the worst of the tariff-related volatility behind us

Not even close, says Wilbur Ross, who served as Commerce Secretary in President Trump’s first administration

Secretary Ross lauded the White House’s achievements: to sign a handful of deals with global economic forces in a matter of months

But he’s skeptical that the Oval Office’s success thus far will guarantee them a win with America’s major rival, China

However, In fact, Secretary Ross wouldn’t be surprised if negotiations slip back into an all-out trade war when a 90-day pause on escalation between the nations expires in the second week of August, in today's financial world. “I’m not so sure that we’ll be able to make a deal with China,” the banker turned D

Power player tells Fortune in an exclusive interview this week, in today's financial world. “I do think that the Japan deal and the EU deal both put a lot more pressure on China,” he added, but in the short term, Beijing is unly to capitulate to America’s demand because of calendar conflicts

Additionally, In August, Beijing’s top leaders will reportedly gather in the seaside re of Beidaihe to agree on key policy and personnel moves

Nevertheless, It would be “very unusual for them to do something as controversial as settling with the U, considering recent developments

Just before” such a meeting, Secretary Ross added

Indeed, while an agreement with the U (an important development)

Will make logical sense to Chinese politicians and economists, Secretary Ross said politically, Beijing will not want to be seen as “submitting to Trump’s demands

Additionally, ” China has been forceful in its response to Trump’s tariff policy, reacting with its own recical measures when the Oval Office announced its own hikes

The tit-for-tat escalation at one point saw the U

Officials didn’t mince words the White House’s agenda and rhetoric, either (fascinating analysis)

Furthermore, “China’s position has always been consistent: If it’s a fight, we will accompany it to the end; if it’s a talk, our door is open

In contrast, The tariff war and trade war were unilaterally initiated by the U

Additionally, ,” China’s Commerce spokesman said in a statement on May 2

Wants to talk, it must show genuine sincerity—be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariff increases, in this volatile climate. ” The minister added: “Saying one thing and doing another, or even attempting to use talks as a pretext for coercion and blackmail, will not work with China. ” Despite the spiky rebuffs to Washington’s tactics, Secretary Ross added there have been no suggestions that China will do anything “dramatic

Furthermore, Back to Liberation Day If President Trump can’t agree to a deal with China in the next fortnight or so, Secretary Ross said can expect to see economic sanctions on either side return to the higher levels seen before a pause was agreed those three months ago

This would “pretty well eliminate Chinese exports to us,” Secretary Ross added (remarkable data)

On the other hand, Conversely, “For the most part, they’re not gonna be able to absorb those tariffs. ” There could be some effort on behalf of China to find a way around the economic sanctions, the former cabinet member added, potentially finding shipping routes via nations with lower tariff rates to America

How President Trump might close this loophole, Secretary Ross said, remains to be seen: “How well that will work I don’t know

On the other hand, On the other hand, We don’t know the exact details of what has been agreed, and that’s a little bit tricky to enforce in any event because it involves the day to day cooperation of another country, so it’ll be a little confusing, but worst case is that we’ll be back where we were before he made his recent postponement with China. ” And while a loggerheads with China isn’t idea, it would mean the U

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