CNBC Daily Open: Divergence between official and ADP jobs reports reveals two labor markets
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The huge divergence between the ADP and BLS reports could point to a growing schism in the U.S. labor market.
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investment
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July 4, 2025
06:30 AM
CNBC
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Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images Taken from CNBC’s Daily Open, our international — today There's a scene in the cinematic masterpiece Mean Girls in which a character writes in big bloody script: "DO NOT TRUST HER. "Apologies in advance to the good folks at ADP, who I'm sure are doing good work cessing private payrolls
But we might want to keep in mind the above warning when assessing the monthly ADP jobs report
Official labor numbers from the U
Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a higher-than-expected increase of 147,000 jobs in June
The ADP report, released Wednesday, pointed to a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs
That's not just a difference in magnitude, but also of direction
Emphasizing this point, the unemployment rate in June fell to 4. 2% in the month before, defying a forecast for an increase to 4
The details lurking below the official jobs report, however, suggest I could be a tad unfair to the ADP report
Jobs in the government rose by 73,000 in June, making up around half of the total nonfarm payroll growth for the month, as noted by CNBC's Alex Harring
The ADP report only measures private payrolls — which exclude government jobs. "The headline job gains and surprising dip in unemployment are undoubtedly good news, but for job seekers outside of healthcare & social assistance, local government, and public education, the gains will ly ring hollow," wrote Cory Stahle, economist at Indeed Hiring Lab
The huge divergence between the ADP and BLS reports, then, might not be that much of a statistical aberration — and could point to a growing schism in the U
What you need to know todayThe U
Economy added more jobs in June than expected
Nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 147,000 for the month, higher than the estimate for 110,000
The unemployment rate also ticked down to 4
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch new records
Both indexes rose Thursday to extend their streak of new closing highs
Yield on the 10-year U
On Friday, Asia-Pacific traded mixed
Indian regulator temporarily bans Jane Street from market
The Securities Exchange Board of India accused the U
Firm of widespread market manipulation, and issued an interim order to freeze millions of dollars in "illegal gains. "Trump's massive bill passed by U
On Thursday, the House of Representatives voted in favor of the tax-and-spending bill, with a finally vote tally of 218-214
The passage of the bill is a major political victory for U
President Donald Trump. [] A relief to European renewable energy firms
Amendments in Trump's bill gave renewable stocks a boost and could mean the "worst-case scenario" for the sector might not come to pass, an analyst said
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his wife Victoria Starmer react as they greet Labour campaigners and activists at Number 10 Downing Street, ing the results of the election, in London, Britain, July 5, 2024
Toby Melville | ReutersA year after its landslide win, Britain’s Labour Party is navigating a tougher-than-expected pathThe last 12 months have been nothing short of tumultuous for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer
The government's main mission was to kickstart growth and make people better off
But a year on, optimism, ductivity and job creation remain muted — pressured, in part, by a rise in the national living wage and employers' national insurance contributions. — Ritika Gupta Get the CNBC Daily Open report in your inbox every morning and keep up to date with the wherever you are
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