China’s fertility crisis is so dire, rates are falling below ‘replacement levels’ — GDP could slow by more than half in the next 30 years, study says

Economy·populationChina’s fertility crisis is so dire, rates are falling below ‘replacement levels’ — GDP could slow by more than half in the next 30 years, study saysBy Eleanor PringleBy Eleanor PringleReporterEleanor PringleReporterEleanor Pringle is an award-winning reporter at Fortune covering news, the economy, and personal finance

Eleanor previously worked as a correspondent and news editor in regional news in the U.K

She her journalism training with the Press Association after earning a degree from the University of East Anglia.SEE FULL BIO Declining birthrates across the globe are a concern for economies in the long term.CFOTO/Future Publishing - Getty ImagesChina’s long-term economic growth is at risk due to a shrinking labor force and rapidly aging population, according to Oxford Economics

While developed nations the U.S. may buffer this with immigration, China and others face tougher challenges sustaining growth and managing social support systems

China may be the only nation that could rival America’s economic dominance

But its long-term spects will potentially be cut off at the knees by a fundamental flaw: It won’t have the people to keep its growth going

That’s on account of the country’s labor force shrinking at an advanced rate, with its fertility rates falling below “replacement levels” where new workers equal the amount of individuals leaving employment

But not only is there the fundamental issue of not having enough people to do the legwork to keep the economy moving, there’s also the knock-on impact of lower consumption—and hence less investment, a slower pace of innovation, and increased government debt as leaders seek to support an older population with fewer people to vide for them. “As populations age, the younger cohorts are often smaller than older ones due to declining birth rates

By contrast, this figure stood at 11 in the U.S

In Thailand, this figure sits at a little over 40 percentage points, while Brazil sits at apximately 35

By contrast, the United States sits at a little over 10 and the United Kingdom at apximately 15, though the economists point out that “Dependency ratios in developed economies will rise more slowly… because developed economies are already experiencing rising dependency ratios, so the starting point is higher.” Developed economies also have a further option available to them: Powering their GDP with labor gathered from around the world. “Immigration helps ease some of the strain by increasing the working-age population

The retirement question In developed nations the U.S, the conversation declining birthrates and aging populations is already in the main

On fertility, for example, the world’s richest man Elon Musk has already weighed in

Responding to a post declining American birth rates on his social media site X earlier this year, Musk wrote, “Low birth rates will end civilization.” wise, figures BlackRock’s Larry Fink have called on the government to begin a national conversation the public’s need to for retirement, instead of relying on the state for support

We are viding enough support to our employees where they’re getting the adequacy of retirement. “It’s beyond that, we refuse to talk how do we get more broadening of our economy with more Americans participating in that

Meanwhile, in nations with more “generous” welfare systems: “Without reform, such as raising retirement ages or boosting labour force participation, many welfare systems risk becoming unsustainable

In our scenario, public debt rises sharply across most advanced economies and in several emerging

Explore this year's list.