China And Trump’s Abraham Accords Remake Middle Eastern Energy

EnergyChina And Trump’s Abraham Accords Remake Middle Eastern EnergyByWesley Alexander Hill, Contributor

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights

More point in America's Middle Eastern Policy as well as regional spects

President Donald Trump’s teasing the possibility of more countries joining the Abraham Accords is one of the most important, and least appreciated, developments from the U. -Israeli-Iranian war

While Cassandras phesied destabilization of the Middle East, the expansion of the accords could lead to a less radical and more stable political environment and increased energy availability worldwide

There may be a welcome change in the global balance of power, as China and Russia recognize that the United States is not kidding

The Abraham Accords, the first Trump administration’s most significant foreign policy accomplishments, sought to normalize relations between Israel and various Muslim-majority states

In doing so, it was hoped that outside influence and economic ties could slowly unravel the Gordian Knot that is Israeli-Palestinian relations and cool tensions

Iran’s disruption of this cess was both ideological and strategic, in escalation of its hegemonic ambitions and its “ring of fire” strategy, designed to surround and attack Israel through numerous xies, an apach which would be threatened by Trump’s initiative

Whether one believes a broken clock tells time twice a day, or the result was due to great strategic insight, Trump seems to have succeeded in his “splendid little war”

Iran’s nu and military capacity has been reduced, its network of xies largely smashed, the friendly Assad regime in Syria gone, a quagmire resulting from regime change in Tehran avoided

The global economy dodged recession because the Strait of Hormuz was not closed, possibly with the assistance of China

While doubts the success of attacks against Iran’s nu capabilities persist, and confusion the feasibility of Iran’s nu ambitions endures, there is less doubt the results for Iran’s patrons and neighbors

The Abraham Accords Expanded The expansion of the Abraham Accords is the most ly immediate result of Iran’s humiliation, and it heralds the erosion of Iranian power

One obvious candidate for expansion, in both my estimation and per the Israeli media, is Azerbaijan, a majority Shi’a Muslim secular state that already has an exemplary relationship with Israel, making it the perfect antithesis to Iran

Should Azerbaijan join the Accords, the European energy market would be the most significant immediate beneficiary, since Azeri energy could flow westwards without its existing cooperation with Israel acting as a burden

Today, Iran, being unable to confront Israel and the U. , is picking a fight with Azerbaijan, spreading deepfakes and threats to “retaliate” for Baku’s alleged assistance to Jerusalem during the war

Azerbaijan’s ascension to the Abraham Accords will prevent Iran from aggressive moves towards its independent neighbor, thus actively denying Tehran’s strife to control the energy-rich Caucasus region

MORE FOR YOU There are other mising candidates for the Abraham Accords

Syria, assuming it opts to join, would serve as a dramatic example of a nation’s ability to exit the Axis of Evil camp and embark on a path toward development

It would be a powerful way for Syria’s President Ahmed al-Shaara to demonstrate that his claims of being a changed man in charge of a changing country are not simply rhetoric

Doing so would also allow the economic development of Syria’s underutilized energy resources

It must be noted that Azerbaijan played an active role in facilitating talks between Turkey and Israel over the regime change in Syria

Central Asian states, including Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, which, Azerbaijan, are largely secular majority Muslim countries with good relations with Israel, could also make excellent additions

They are, by and large, energy-exporting states dependent on commodity revenues

Hooking them into an emerging geoeconomic framework under the auspices of the Abraham Accords could economically help reinforce these states against encroaching Russian and Chinese influence, while simultaneously boosting development and ties to the West

Outwardly amicable relations between Iran and China are paradoxically increasingly strained as the

More relationship deepens

Getty Images China’s Pivot And The Abraham Accords In Tehran’s hour of need, Iran’s axis of allies folded under American pressure

Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, refused to act

Beijing could have credibly supported Iran in defense of its strategic partnership

Instead, China opted for low energy prices amid fears that further escalation would damage its economy

Now, in the aftermath of Trump’s victory and China’s difficult decision, the Middle East is in flux, and Beijing has both hard choices and opportunities ahead of it

China’s abandonment of Iran at the first inconvenience isn’t a total loss

While this action may convince some that China is a paper tiger, for others, especially Iran’s Arab rivals, it is seen as a sign of prudence

China is far more reliant on Arab states for energy than it is on Iran

Furthermore, Beijing’s only hope of expanding engagement with the Middle East now lies with the Arab states; and the Arab states, which are increasingly ly to join the Abraham Accords, are the key for China to normalize s with the region and sidestep Iranian ambitions

Amongst aspirants to the accords, China already has close relations with Central Asian states and expressed an interest in in Syria

In Azerbaijan, China maintains a pragmatic, growing strategic partnership rooted in energy, infrastructure, and regional connectivity

Thus, China may even find strategic utility in supporting the Accords, not just for its Middle Eastern objectives, but also to mitigate against the controversies concerning Beijing’s repression of the Muslim Uyghurs in China’s Xinjiang region

The Abraham Accords now transcend mere peacekeeping in the Middle East

They may become a coalition of nations with which the United States can reliably deal

Within this framework, Israel is a capstone asset

Still, also a litmus test: a Muslim country’s ability to maintain harmonious relations with Israel is seen as indicative of its potential for constructive engagement with America

This strategic vision positions the Abraham Accords as a cornerstone of U

Foreign policy, leveraging Israel’s role to foster a network of allied states, thereby enhancing American influence and energy security on the global stage

Ironically, this strategic vision is more recognized in Beijing and Tehran than in Washington, D

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