Can Cava Become the Next Chipotle?
Investment
The Motley Fool

Can Cava Become the Next Chipotle?

July 27, 2025
09:45 PM
4 min read
AI Enhanced
investmentmoneyfinancialconsumer discretionaryhealthcaremarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

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This business has taken shareholders on a volatile journey since its initial public offering in June 2023.

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4 min read

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investment

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Published

July 27, 2025

09:45 PM

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The Motley Fool

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investmentmoneyfinancialconsumer discretionaryhealthcaremarket cyclesseasonal analysismarket

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 2 (this bears monitoring). 12%) brought innovation to the restaurant sector, pioneering the fast-casual dining concept and scaling it across the U, in today's market environment

Furthermore, The Tex-Mex chain is a leader in the industry, with strong growth and impressive fitability, in today's financial world

Its success has spawned copycats

Cava (CAVA 2. 10%) is a Mediterranean-inspired fast-casual restaurant chain that's expanding rapidly itself

But it's much smaller today

That hasn't prevented investors from asking what the might look down the road

Does Cava have what it takes to one day become the next Chipotle, in this volatile climate

Here's what investors must know

Image source: Cava (fascinating analysis)

Opening new stores rapidly Cava is finding success thanks to some key factors

It's betting on consumers' rising interest in healthy food choices

Conversely, The Mediterranean diet is considered one of the healthiest in the world

What's more, Cava is trying to copy what has worked so well for Chipotle: The fast-casual dining concept

Furthermore, This combines the speed, convenience, and accessibility people appreciate with fast-food restaurants, but it does so with higher-quality ingredients (an important development)

By benefiting from these two trends, Cava has seen tremendous growth

The company opened 15 net new stores in the fiscal 2025 first quarter ( April 20), bringing the total to 382

Nevertheless, This supported a 28, in today's market environment. 2% year-over-year gain in revenue, which was boosted by impressive same-store sales (SSS) growth of 10 (which is quite significant), in today's market environment

That figure is noteworthy because it happened during a time when consumer sentiment has been under pressure

On the other hand, Cava's fitability is getting better, given the current landscape

Last fiscal quarter, the operating margin came in at 4

This was a meaningful imvement from the 3 (noteworthy indeed), in light of current trends. 6% operating margin from the year-ago period

Moreover, Looking ahead, the leadership team has plans to get to 1,000 stores by 2032

Expanding the physical foot by three-fold would unquestionably lead to much higher revenue and earnings down the road

Cava's biggest bulls hope this happens, and it would get the closer to Chipotle's size

Don't question Chipotle's dominance To be, Chipotle is experiencing a slowdown, as people prioritize getting more value from the money they spend, in today's financial world

Market analysis shows company's same-store sales dipped in each of the last two quarters, a very unusual occurrence for the industry leader, given current economic conditions

Nonetheless, Chipotle is still a top-notch performer in the restaurant market (which is quite significant), amid market uncertainty

The has developed durable competitive advantages, thanks to its scale (which is quite significant)

Chipotle has 3,839 stores right now, and it raked in $3, given current economic conditions

Furthermore, 1 billion in revenue in the second quarter, both numbers that are light years ahead of Cava

On the other hand, Chipotle has a more visible brand, and its huge sales base allows it to better leverage marketing, duct, and nological investments, in light of current trends

At its current size, it's easy to argue that Cava hasn't built an economic moat (this bears monitoring)

Additionally, Furthermore, Its brand is becoming more well-known, and as it scales, there could be some cost advantages

On the other hand, However, I don't see there being any strengths today

I believe there's a very low bability that Cava will get to Chipotle's store count or market cap

Chipotle isn't sitting still

It might be apaching 4,000 stores soon

But over the long term, the company wants to have 7,000 locations open in North America

I don't see Cava ever reaching that level

Chipotle plans to open 330 stores just this year, which is nearly as many as Cava has in total, in today's financial world

However, However, Investors who are hoping that the Mediterranean chain can catch up to the purveyor of burritos and bowls must seriously temper their expectations

Chipotle has a commanding lead that Cava ly won't chip away at (noteworthy indeed)

Furthermore, Cava's valuation is also very expensive

S currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 71, in light of current trends

However, 9, a whopping 78% more expensive than Chipotle

Cava isn't worthy of investment consideration (this bears monitoring).