Bad Weather And Bad Bunny Threaten A Bad Season For Live Music

Hollywood & EntertainmentBad Weather And Bad Bunny Threaten A Bad Season For MusicByBill Hochberg, Contributor

Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights

I write the and law of music

Tour dates by Bad Bunny and others suggests that the music biz may be caught in a perfect storm during this all-important summer season

Michael Stipe’s lyric “Should we talk the weather. … Should we talk the government. ” resonates more today than when REM’s “Pop Song 89” dropped, at least when it comes to figuring out the forecast for music fests and music today

Should We Talk The Weather

July is expected to bring an historic heat wave to the West Coast, after June’s record-setting temperatures rolled across the U

From the Midwest to the East Coast and a massive heat wave also hit Western Europe

Tennessee’s Bonnaroo festival was cancelled for the first time ever in June, while moters of an EDM festival in St

Louis called Midwest Dreams pulled the plug a week before the opening day in May after a tornado touched down near the site

If weather cancels a festival or an outdoor show, fans may or may not get a full refund, depending on the policies of the moter and ticketing company

Bonnaroo issued full refunds even though ticket-holders got to enjoy one full day of the four-day festival before rain and mud swamped it out

MORE FOR YOU When stormy skies stop the show, cancellation insurance can reimburse moters for large upfront payments (called “minimum guarantees”), which are paid in-full and in-advance to artists and venues, and may even cover loss of expected food and drink concession fits

But show insurance rates are getting sky high. “In the 15 years that I have been a concert moter, the cancelation insurance has gone from just under one percent of my budget to anywhere from four to six percent depending on the loss history in a particular market,” says Danny Hayes, who has been both a top music attorney and festival moter. “So Bonnaroo could very ly see a large increase in its its insurance next year as a result of this year’s cancellation," Hayes says, "and that can cut deeply into a festival’s margin

Amid Trump Policies Bad Bunny (Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio), one of the biggest touring acts today, is side-stepping Stateside stadiums all-together, and has stormed against ICE raids across the US, including on his island of Puerto Rico

Coming out of Covid in 2022, Bad Bunny was reportedly the most successful touring act in the world, grossing $393. 3 million for the year, easily besting Elton John’s second place finish at $274 million gross that year

This year the Bunny King will hop onto a 23-date stadium tour with stops in Latin America, Australia, Japan and Europe beginning in November

He says dates in the States are “unnecessary” for success

But is that right. “I think quite the opposite,” says Jarred Arfa, head of global music at Independent Artist Group (IAG), which books tours for Billy Joel, Metallica, Neil Young, Elvis Costello, Rod Stewart, 50 Cent and other frontline talent

Is still the most lucrative touring market, especially with more acceptance of higher ticket prices than in Europe and other. ” The fit margin for artists touring in the U

Can’t be beat, as venues try harder than their counterparts overseas to attract top acts to their big stages. “In Europe, for instance, the costs are higher, you have a lot of municipal concert halls and old soccer stadiums that are behind the times in concert economics as far as how they operate, and they just aren’t as flexible or aggressive in seeking talent," says Arfa. "As an artist you’ll actually make a lot more money touring in the U

Than you will anywhere else. ” So whether you shout “¡Vive Bad Bunny. ” or “¡Maldito Bunny. ” you have to admit it’s a brilliant marketing move. “You can say, ‘Hey, I’m not coming to the U. ’ But next year, you announce the U

Tour, and fans are super excited,” says Hayes

Market necessary in the short run

But you can’t skip the world’s biggest market forever. ” A top troubador can use touring and ticketing tactics as political truncheons if they want to, but it’s tricky

But the band lost a lawsuit against the ticketing giant and today the moter of the band’s Dark Matter tour is Nation, which merged with Ticketmaster in 2010. “We had the Ticketmaster thing — didn’t work,” Vedder told the New York Times in 2022. "They made it go away

That was a learning experience

It bruised our muscle of idealism

We were young and naïve and thought you could change things

But just taking on the man and being agitators, it might not be the way. ” Times are different today, with Bad Bunny and other outspoken celebrities livid at Trump’s divisive migrant policy more than Nation-Ticketmaster’s music monopoly

But the DoJ’s antitrust division is still actively secuting Nation’s merger, which combines ticketing, tour motion, artist management, and venue ownership all under one roof

And politicians from both sides of the aisle – led by Sen

Amy Klobuchar (D- MN) and Sen

Mike Lee (R-Utah) – are seeking to clobber the massive music conglom to capture voters

Interestingly, Nation recently added Richard Grenell, a Trump ally and newly installed president of the Kennedy Center, to its board, which could bode well for Nation, and keep ticket prices on the rise

Goldman Sachs says rising ticket prices are the brightest story of the music this year

Music has “ven to be more recession resilient than other forms of entertainment,” the bank says

Top artists are riding high on a rising wave of music revenue, especially in the U

While that’s nice work if you can get it, some artists can’t get in, especially if they’re coming from south of the border

Julión Álvarez’, a Música Mexicana megastar, was unable to fly across the Mexican border the day before a gig at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on May 24

His work visa was reportedly cancelled without notice

While Bad Bunny and other megastars from outside the continental U. , Drake and Partynextdoor, have a ticket to ride, they don’t seem to care much

More Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/Getty Images)Getty Images The Canadian music titans are on tour together in the U

And Europe with no confirmed dates in the States for the whole year surprisingly

Some speculate their absence from Stateside stadiums is a political statement

Means living in constant fear," she told the BBC. “And it’s painful to see. ” But even with political storms rolling across the U. , it’s hard for any world class act to stay away for long. “I bet you dollars to donuts Bad Bunny tours the U

Next summer,” says Hayes

We can only hope the political weather will be milder then

Danny Hayes and Jarred Arfa speak with me at more length the state of music on my podcast The Music Law Beat

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